The accumulated data thread (GW)

[tecoyah]

In an effort to clarify a point, I propose an ever expanding thread used to archive the continuous flow of information pointing to a change in Earths Climate. Though I myself am convinced beyond any reasonable doubt of a relatively swift change taking place at this time, it is clear some have a differing opinion on the issue. Hopefully we will see a pattern emerge in the posted data as time passes, thus I hope to see anything anyone has that might show I am wrong to believe in this change in climate.

I will start with this:

North-West Passage is now plain sailing
"Analysts confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972," they said in research conclusions published on the centre's website.

The news is yet another milestone showing that the Earth is warming up. The route was first navigated in the early 1900s by the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen, who later beat Robert F Scott in the race to the south pole in 1911. Amundsen and his crew took nearly two years to pick their way through a labyrinth of narrow lanes of open water and thick ice. Now it would be comparatively plain sailing.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...d=networkfront

[flstf]

The glaciers in Glacier National Park are shrinking. I have ridden over the "Going to the Sun" pass several times over the years and can see a dramatic difference. I read somewhere that they will be gone in about 30 years.

I don't think the question is if the Earth is warming up so much as what is causing it, natural cycle or human activity.

[tecoyah]

Originally Posted by flstf

The glaciers in Glacier National Park are shrinking. I have ridden over the "Going to the Sun" pass several times over the years and can see a dramatic difference. I read somewhere that they will be gone in about 30 years.

I don't think the question is if the Earth is warming up so much as what is causing it, natural cycle or human activity.

Very good point, this news is pertinent to it:

El Nino not responsible for US heatwave
This is hot off the presses - a new study shows that human emissions of greenhouse gases made it 15 times more likely that the US would see record-breaking temperatures in 2006.

In the event, temperatures were not the hottest, but the second-hottest since records began in 1895. The hottest year ever was 1998, which was also marked by a powerful El Niño. Scientists have widely attributed the record-breaking temperatures to El Niño.

So when data revealed that 2006, also an El Niño year, was the second-warmest year ever, Martin Hoerling at NOAA in Colorado and his colleagues decided it was time to find out if this was mere coincidence, or if El Niño was responsible for the warmth.

Looking at data from 10 El Niño events since 1965, they found that El Niño tends to cool US temperatures slightly - not warm them.

The team have also used computer models to check this effect. They simulated US climate with and without El Niño and again found a slight cooling when El Niño was "switched on". Further computer models were used to look at the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols on US temperatures and showed that they tend to warm US temperatures.

http://www.newscientist.com/blog/environment/

[ottopilot]

edit

[tecoyah]

I doubt very much any change would be very effective on the scales required anyway. Likely no one here expects to save the earth this shift in climate, more to attempt an understanding of its cause, and perhaps increase awareness.

An island of ice the size of Manhattan has drifted into a remote channel and jammed itself in.

The Ayles Ice Island changed the Arctic map by breaking free from the Canadian coast two years ago.

Scientists have been tracking the progress of this monster iceberg amid fears that it could edge west towards oil and gas installations off Alaska.

The creation of the island is seen by many scientists as a key indicator of the rapid warming of the Arctic.

Ayles Ice Island is vast, measuring about 16km (10 miles) long and five kilometres (three miles) across.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/n...0824.stm#story

[raveneye]

Originally Posted by ottopilot

... my point is that I fear rushing to changing something so complex, so quickly, that we fail to examine all the possible known outcomes or lasting dangers.

Good point, ottopilot, although in the exact opposite direction of your intention.

The overwhelming scientific consensus is that we have already done exactly that.

[raveneye]

To continue Tec's point above about the unprecedented loss of the arctic sea ice this year, this is an excellent site for official information:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

This is the site set up by University of Illinois climate scientists J. Walsh and W. Chapman to show their findings on arctic climate change.

The basic point is that this is the worst year on record for the arctic. It is so unusually ice-free this year that scientists worry that we are in the midst of a permanent "regime change" or have finally passed the tipping point for the far north. The worst predictions seem to have been borne out; the rate of sea ice loss is now much faster than anyone would have predicted just a few years ago.

Here are some graphics:



The above is the ice anomaly, the amount by which the sea ice is lower than the baseline (analogous to the temperature anomalies posted on the other thread).








THis is the current year only: absolute amount on top, and the anomaly plotted underneath. Note that the anomaly shows that 2007 was way below the average all year, and the anomaly itself is on a very rapid decreasing trend at present. This is what is alarming and is beyond the worst predictions.

At this point many scientists have given up hope; it seems we have lost the battle for the far north, it's too late now to do much of anything to prevent the complete loss of the summer sea ice.

Check out their animation here:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...movie.2007.mov

(This is big, around 200 megs).

Here is a nice explanation from Timothy Lenton from the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich:

A more convincing case can be made that climate warming may have caused the Arctic sea-ice to pass a tipping point. Certainly the area coverage of both summer and winter Arctic sea-ice are declining at present, summer sea-ice more markedly, and the ice has thinned significantly over a large area. Elegant analysis has shown that positive ice-albedo feedback (the warming due to changing from reflective ice to dark ocean surface) dominates over external forcing (the global warming signal) in causing the thinning and shrinkage since around 1988. This suggests the system may already be undergoing a non-linear transition toward a different state with less Arctic sea-ice (perhaps none in summer).
http://researchpages.net/ESMG/people...ipping-points/