mixedmedia

I take responsibility for it. As an American.

I guess I am long past expecting any sort of influence-wielding entity in the world to act in the way I would as an individual. I'm long past expecting it.

__________________
Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce

roachboy

at this point, the question of whether hamas would have moderated as a function of being able to assume power after they were elected in a free election, and had been able to actually govern is kinda academic. i think they would have. i said it at the time, i say it again here. de soto thinks they would have. the reasons he gives are more or less what i thought at the time, and is basically what i put up in the last post. those reasons are supported with a large amount of empirical detail in the report that i had no access to--i just thought it logical.

but the present outcome is self-evidently a function of the choices made under the assumption that it made sense not to allow this moderation (real or potential) to happen at all.
it is a blunder of very significant proportions carried out by two politically weak governments in collusion with each other.
to my mind the united states and israel decided to allow gaza to starve and then become a battlefield because the respective administrations stood to benefit from the carnage politically.

this is reactionary realpolitik at its most foul.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

host

mixedmedia, thank you for your comments and your justified, weary, resignation.

Jordan's King Abdullah speaking to US congress, March 7, 2007:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6AKMu8M8xY

mixedmedia

roachboy:

Well, I'm not of the mind to outright disagree with someone who has had feet on the ground and direct involvment with the negotiations, but I don't think other results are outside of the realm of possibility, either.

I don't disagree with your summation about US/Israeli motivations.

host:
You've just made me realize how defeatist I am. Thanks.

__________________
Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce

roachboy

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/14/wo...hp&oref=slogin

it goes without saying that the last paragraphs above--the "analysis"--which blames fatah for this is of course superficially true but fundamentally dishonest.

the bigger problem is that if this keep moving in a straight line from what it looks like now, the united states has navigated its way straight out of relevance in any peace process, now looking like what it really is, particularly under george w bush, which is nothing like a broker, nothing like a mediator, and everything like a simple ally of the israelis.
another triumph by those fine folks in washington.
another triumph that will take a long long time to undo.

way to go.

things just keep getting better and better.

this administration demonstrates the need for change--for example: why isnt there a way within the american legal system to get rid of a sitting administration on the grounds of incompetence?

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

jorgelito

They have certainly NOT demonstrated anywhere near close to a commitment to peace. Every peace overture by the Israelis to the Palestinians has been rejected or broken.

Many of the Palestinian people may want peace but their leadership is pretty bad. They don't listen to their people at all. They only want power. Their religious ideology is false, just an excuse to further their own agenda.

This civil war is terrible. Hamas firing on unarmed people pleading with them to stop fighting. That's some Muslim brotherhood. The Palestinan people have been failed by their own leaders.

I think the average Palestinian probably doesn't care a whole lot about the politics. But rather, is far more concerned with stability, security and a livlihood. They want to work, raise their families and live their lives. Unfortunately, some of their compatriots have ignored them and decided to spoil things by attacking Israel, inviting retaliation.

And so it goes.....

Willravel

They didn't attack until years after they were occupied and subjugated.

jorgelito

Roach, the question of "what-if" is very interesting. Unfortunately, with political science, it is difficult to 'test" these theories or run tests. But it is still very interesting nonetheless. It is certainly possible that "legitimizing" Hamas would have had a moderating or civilizing effect. Some of the reasons include that actually running government and being responsible for parts of society that don't involve terrorist training camps would necessitate Hamas to act responsibly as the agent of power and authority. In other words, it's the whole with power comes responsibility theorem.

I still think it would have been possible for Hamas to come out smelling like roses if they had denounced terror acts, recognized Israel, and renounced their mission statement of wiping out Israel and risen up to the negotiating table. Instead, I think the whole "terror" act only helps Israel.

I believe to "beat" Israel or to close the negotaiting gap, you have to win the media war. Terrorists generally don't garner much sympathy. But if they had "played the game" perhaps they could have leveraged their new image with much better results and made Israel look like the bad guy (much more than it is popular to do so now). A non-violent, cooperative approach would essentially remove much of Israel's advantage. They would no longer have any excuse to withold funds or isolate Palestinian occupied Israel. External pressure would be enormous on Israel.

I think Hamas is shortsighted and played right into Israel's hands.

Sun Tzu

There are extremists on both sides, but it would seem the Palestinian is reactionary to Zionistic manifest destiny.

If Israel truely wants peace it will disband the continuously expanding settlements on the West Bank.

__________________
To confine our attention to terrestrial matters would be to limit the human spirit.- Stephen Hawking

tecoyah

So...it would seem Hamas is poised to be the power in Palestine this week. We really need to just let this thing play itself out for the next...oh... 30yrs or so.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070615/...l_palestinians

roachboy

here's a piece from electronic intifada that outlines the situation as it now seems to stand in gaza:

source: http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article7030.shtml

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

mixedmedia

let's not think of this as a failure...it's an opportunity

an opportunity for years to come of puffed-up proselytizing and vengeance and fun with things that go boom

.................................

__________________
Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus
PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce

aKula

The road map became unviable when hamas came to power. How can you have a two state solution if the one of the states refuses to recognise the other? Looking at it from such a perspective it becomes clear why the west would be reluctant to fund such government. That such a government is democratically elected does not automatically entitle it to continued financial support from the west, the countries providing funds will clearly react to the stated policies of a party in power.

I agree it was an opportunity of moderation when the hamas/fatah executive formed. The whole thing is a mess now, too many guns in a dense urban area. Mixedmedia pretty much summed it up in her latest post. The whole thing is depressing really.

__________________
"I am the wrath of God. The earth I pass will see me and tremble." -Klaus Kinski as Don Lope de Aguirre

jorgelito

But it is possible that Hamas would have had to shift. Once they come into power, they are no longer the underdog and have to meet many responsibilities, in theory. As such, it would be very difficult to perform the duties of governance while espousing and executing their "mission statement". Not being a traditional "legitimate power or government" allows Hamas the freedom to act however they want. So once coming into power, it is possible they would have become responsible and maybe even civil. Because if they were democratically elected, then they should then, respond the the democratic mechanisms. Unless they decide to dissolve democracy and turn the polity into a theocracy or dictatorship or some sort of rogue governance undeterred by cut off in funds from the world because they could be backed by Iran.

That's one possibility or one way to look at it. The problem is, there isn't a real way to test these theories or hypotheses.

roachboy

jorgelito: the irony is obvious, yes? by moving to choke off the pa because hamas was elected to a majority the americans and israelis managed to generate a scenario in which the outcome they feared was the outcome produced. in the moderation-through-exercise-of-power scenario, nothing was given in advance but at least there was a coherent possibility that hamas would move in the direction you outline, that i outlined, that de soto outlined. one way of thinking about this is as a pretty colossal blunder. another way is that israel and the us prefer a radicalized hamas because a radicalized hamas reinforces the direction of their policies--which are not geared around any coherentpeace process, but rather are geared around the old sharon idea that if the pa is destroyed then there is no negociating partner so there can be no negotiations so there will be no palestine.

but maybe it doesnt go that far: maybe its more obvious in that the logic is more in front of us: maybe the us and israel are both thinking only in very short-term ways and at the forefront is the possibility of propping up internally weak regimes in israel and the us by creating the "security threats" that these governments can "respond to" and in responding legitimate themselves.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

daneo

The main problem seem to be that the US and Israel doesn't know really what they want to do. In effect the Israeli leadership and political system is as fractured as the Palestinian, only it's a much more stable political system. Basically Israel is a nation in crisis, but this fact is overlooked because Palestine is so extraordinarily bad as it is.
The economy is a shambles, the military's aura of invincibility is broken, the far-right orthodox Jews are in effect threatening with civil war, the settlers are continuing their acts of provocation against the Israeli administration and the Palestinians, the balance of the political system is changed with Kadima's new position on the middle and hence the political system is still trying to find a center of balance and finally and finally internally the lines between Right and Left would make the apparent fractions between "blue and red" in America seem like a Politburo meeting of old.

Meanwhile the two major government parties are left with leaderships without legitimacy, Olmert and newly elected Barak are both tainted by their failures, ancient or recent. The government coalition is a strange creature made up of former Likud members, people from "The Pensioners Party" who seem to not really know what they want, Labour, who sits on the exact different side of the political spectrum when compared to Yisrael Beitenu, who more or less favour deportation of the Palestinians and a "Greater Israel", then factor in the last member Shas, made up of Ultra-Orthodox Jews and there's a complete lack of clear political strategy, which has only been made the worse by the complete failure in Lebanon and the incapacitation of the military and political leadership, which was the result thereof. And what is the alternative? Well, there is none. A Likud that has become ultra-rightist? A coalition of left-wing parties and Labour with the Arab parties? Not likely... And what of the ultra-rightists? Well, they're separated into 4 parties with distinctly different agendas. While the Palestinian struggle for power is a fight between black and white, the Israeli power play is a struggle between a thousand shades of grey.

jorgelito

Hmm....sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy perhaps?

roachboy

well, the next move has been taking shape:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/internatio...105242,00.html

so over the weekend, abbas formed a new "provisional government"---of course among the first actions was to fire the prime minister...this "provisional government" appears to be a step toward cutting gaza loose and concentrating on the west bank---the americans israel and the eu have all suddenyl recognized that this financial embargo idea may not have been the best thing, not because of the suffering it was causing in gaza--o no--but because this past week has changed the landscape, narrowing the space within which the total incoherence of the israelo-american "vision" can play out.

of course, everyone is shocked suprised flabbergasted amazed scandalized that recent events have unfolded....in the tack that is being adopted reflects directly the fundamental value of facing saving for political weak regimes confronting a crisis of their own making.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite