The main source of the problems with countries like Iran, Iraq, or Afghanistan - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Humanitarismus · 03-23-2007, 04:51 AM

Please excuse my bad english skills, but I'm working on it ^^. What I want to flesh out at this point is thy youth bulge hypothesis.

But first I start with a citation from John Maynard Keynes from his great work "THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PEACE" (first published in 1920):

Quote:

„European Russia increased her population in a degree even greater than Germany-from less than 100,000,00 in 1890 to about 150,000,000 at the outbreak of war; and in the year immediately preceding 1914 the excess of births over deaths in Russia as a whole was at the prodigious rate of two millions per annum. This inordinate growth in the population of Russia, which has not been widely noticed in England, has been nevertheless one of the most significant facts of recent years. [...] and the disruptive powers of excessive national fecundity may have played a greater part in bursting the bonds of convention than either the power of ideas or the errors of autocracy.“ [Keynes, p. 14-15]

My conclusion is: what the USA tried in Vietnam or Iraq was nearly impossibile to realize, because both states had a enormus increase in population. A few examples:

population Iraq (2003): 24 millions
thereof <15 years old: 41% = 10 millions

population Afghanistan (2003): 27.8 millions
thereof <15 years old: 42% = 11.6 millions

population Iran (2003): 67 millions
thereof <15 years old: 32% = 21 millions

population China (2003): 1285 millions
thereof <15 years old: 24% = 310 millions

population USA (2003): 285 millions
thereof <15 years old: 21% = 59 millions

Ok, everybody knows today, that the Bush administration made so many avoidable mistakes, but even if a well designed plan for the democratization of the Iraq had existed, I think it had be a very difficult and dangerous way to democratize Iraq, because a country with a very high increase in population has a tendency to radicalize itself. the best example is the democracy of Iran. The problem ist not the enourmus increase in growth of a puplation; the problem is the high percentage of young men without a perspective. If the population of a country has a high increase, it is very difficult to provide all the new young men with jobs and a perspective. The population of the Iraq doubled in the last fifty years more than two times! In 1950 the Iraq had 5 million inhabitants, in 1980 13 millions and in 1991 19 millions. Today 25 millions! That is an annual increase of:

5mio*(1 + p/100)^56years = 0
p = ca. 2.916%

proof:
5mio*1.02916^56 years = 25 mio

I think that are dramatic numbers and if you now look at the unemployment rate of the iraq, which is today at ~ 28% and if you also take the high percantage of young men into account you understand the demographic boiling pot of Iraq. The demographic situation in Afghanistan is similar to that of Iraq. But now the youth bulge hypothesis:

Quote:

"Countries that experience youth bulges are more likely to experience domestic armed conflict than countries that do not."

A youth bulge is defined as:

Quote:

"That is to measure the size of youth cohorts (most commonly defined as those between 15 and 24 years)"

This hypothesis means, that the great problems in Iraq, Afghanistan and so on will arise within the next decades, because a high percentage of the population are now children and will join the youth cohorts within the next years... But on the opposite the European population will diminish within the next decades and also the USA will have not such an increase in population to station soldiers in that states to quite potential future conflicts. I think that is a very serious matter for the future of the western world and all people on both sides of the atlantic have to appreciate that very carefully.

If you want to know more about the youth bulge hypothesis, so read the following study: "The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000"

Link:
http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet.../PDF/29740.pdf

I hope I could establish a lively discussion about the international strategy of the USA and Europe for the next decades.

EDIT
my calculation was wrong... now it is correct
Sources:
Heinsohn: Söhne und Weltmacht
Spiegel Online, Länderlexikon
Keynes: THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PEACE
Urdal: The Devil in the Demographics: The Effect of Youth Bulges on Domestic Armed Conflict, 1950-2000

SecretMethod70 · 03-23-2007, 05:10 AM

Very interesting thoughts here. I hope I can find the time to look into some of your links with more depth in the near future.

For now, I'll just say that I think there may be something to this. One need only look at America's own history and the effects the baby boomer generation had on culture (and, more precisely, counter-culture) during their youth years.

03-23-2007, 05:10 AM	#2 (permalink)
SecretMethod70 Human Administrator Location: Chicago	Very interesting thoughts here. I hope I can find the time to look into some of your links with more depth in the near future. For now, I'll just say that I think there may be something to this. One need only look at America's own history and the effects the baby boomer generation had on culture (and, more precisely, counter-culture) during their youth years. __________________ Le temps détruit tout "Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling