What is going to happen with North Korea? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

ASU2003 · 07-04-2006, 05:27 PM

I guess that missile defense program doesn't seem like such a waste of money after all.

Will the Bush administration negotiate with them and offer them they same kind of deal they put on the table with Iran? Will China get involved somehow if the US puts trade restrictions on countries that ally with? Will there be an invasion by Japan, South Korea, the USA or China (I'm sure they could always use some more land)? Or will there be a few missiles strikes to take out their military?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060705/...nkorea_missile

Here are some tourist pictures. It looks like a half-way normal country when you take away all advertisements. And if you took pictures of trailer parks and ghettos in the US, some places might be better in the DPRK.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...8&page=1&pp=20
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...ad.php?t=82755

Toaster126 · 07-04-2006, 05:41 PM

They already did the deal. N. Korea has broken the terms of that deal. I think the question is "now what?".

MichaelFarker · 07-04-2006, 08:37 PM

Do you remember how poorly we understood Russia? I think the same is going on here.

Does North Korea's leader believe he can defeat the world? Does he believe he can stay in power if he doesn't try?
What part is China playing?

stevo · 07-05-2006, 06:28 AM

North Korea is a cultist government that is isolated from the world. Shooting off ICBMs is a real smart move

Eventuall NK will prove they have the means to hit the US with a missile. Then they go back to their blackmail games. Try to get food, energy, technology from the US for ceasing the missile threat. I expect one day they will claim to have equipped one of those missiles with a nuke, point it at Seattle and make more demands.

They won't ever get a chance to fire one. They'll be wiped out before lil' Kim pushes the red button.

roachboy · 07-05-2006, 07:34 AM

i dont see this as much more than theater--the talks between nk and the 6 countries who want them to stop developing missles are stalled and the tests are apparently being seen as a kind of "PAY ATTENTION TO ME" move. you can read a fairly sane interpretation in the guardian here:

the situation:

Quote:

Defiant North Korea fires seventh test missile

Justin McCurry in Tokyo and Jonathan Watts in Beijing
Wednesday July 5, 2006
The Guardian

Preparations for a North Korean military parade. Photograph: Getty Images

North Korea ignored international condemnation of its missile tests by launching a seventh missile today, insisting it was its sovereign right to do so.

The launch came hours before the UN security council was due to convene in New York to discuss what US and Japan said would be a tough response. Japanese media, citing government officials, said the seventh missile was launched at 5.22pm local time and landed in the sea six minutes later. There was no immediate indication of the range or size of the missile.

Hours before, the communist regime launched six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which is capable of striking the US mainland but which failed 40 seconds after launch.

"The Taepodong obviously was a failure - that tells you something about capabilities," said US national security adviser Stephen Hadley.

Other analysts, however, said it was possible that North Korea either aborted the missile or reduced the amount of fuel in its tanks as a compromise so that it would not fly over Japan.

Though all of the missiles landed in the sea, their launch raised Japanese anxiety over Pyongyang's ballistic missile programme. Residents on Sado island, off Niigata prefecture, reported seeing the sky turn orange for about five minutes when the missiles were launched. "When I went outside at 4am the sky had turned a colour I'd never seen before," a 74-year-old local woman told Kyodo news agency.

In a typically defiant riposte, Pyongyang said the missile tests were its right as a sovereign nation, despite Japan's claims they violated a moratorium on missile tests agreed between the countries in 2002.

"The missile launch is an issue that is entirely within our sovereignty. No one has the right to dispute it," Ri Pyong-dok, a researcher at the North Korean foreign ministry, said on Japanese television. "On the missile launch, we are not bound by any agreement."

The security council is to discuss a Japanese resolution condemning the tests. Japan's foreign minister, Taro Aso, said there was a "very high possibility" the UN would impose economic sanctions against North Korea.

The Japanese defence agency said the first six missiles were fired between 3.30am and 8.20am and that all had landed in the Sea of Japan several hundred miles from the Japanese coast. Tokyo condemned the tests and said North Korea had "threatened the stability of the international community". The US called them a "provocation".

"The United States strongly condemns these missile launches and North Korea's unwillingness to heed calls for restraint from the international community," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

China called for a cool-headed response to North Korea's missile tests, according to Kyodo news agency, which quoted foreign ministry official Liu Jianchao as saying that countries should respond calmly to the missile test launches.

China was closely watching North Korea's moves, said Liu.

Beijing has led international negotiations aimed at resolving North Korea's nuclear stand-off with the United States. The latest provocation is a setback for that diplomatic campaign.

It is also a slap in the face for the Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, who last week publicly warned North Korea not to do anything that would heighten tension in the region.

Though it stopped short of imposing economic sanctions, Tokyo immediately banned a North Korean passenger ferry moored off the Japanese coast from visiting Japan for six months. The Mangyongbyong-92 was allowed to dock briefly in the Japan Sea port of Niigata today to allow a party of schoolchildren to disembark. The vessel is suspected of carrying drugs, hard currency and up to 90% of the parts North Korea needs for its missile development programme.

Tokyo also said North Korean officials in Japan would not be allowed to re-enter the country and that charter flights between the two countries would be halted.

Tokyo's chief cabinet secretary, Shinzo Abe, said Japan would wait and see how Pyongyang responded before deciding whether to impose tougher measures, such as freezing private remittances from Japan to North Korea, a major source of foreign currency for the communist regime.

"It is regrettable and we protest strongly against North Korea for going ahead with a launch despite warnings from relevant countries, including Japan," Mr Abe said. "It is a serious problem from the standpoint of our national security, peace and stability of the international community and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction."

South Korea was unusually forceful in its condemnation, saying the tests would increase the North's isolation and set back six-party talks on its nuclear weapons programme. No talks have taken place since November after a boycott by Pyongyang, which is angered by a US crackdown on alleged North Korean counterfeiting.

South Korea condemned the barrage as a provocation that would further isolate Pyongyang and increase the risk of an arms race in north-east Asia. Suh Choo-suk, senior secretary to the president on national security, called on North Korea to resolve the problem through dialogue by returning to six-party talks, and comply with international non-proliferation efforts.

Speculation mounted that the North was about to conduct more missile tests. "We think they probably do intend to launch more missiles in the next day or two," Alexander Downer, the Australian foreign minister, told reporters after a telephone conversation with Pyongyang's ambassador to Australia, Chon Jae-hong.

The Australian prime minister, John Howard, suggested the main impact of the launches could be to undermine Pyongyang's relations with its main sympathisers. "North Korea is in total breach of international obligations in doing this and I hope that North Korea feels isolated and feels the condemnation not only of Australia, the United States and Japan but also of China and naturally of South Korea."

"North Korea wants to send a very strong message so that it can have direct negotiations to persuade the US to lift sactions," said Toshimitsu Shigemura, professor of international relations at Waseda University.

"Pyongyang has no normal diplomatic ties so it has to launch missiles to attract attention. In 1998, they launched a missile over Japan and then President Clinton accepted negotiation, so based on their experience, missile launches work."

Other analysts said the launch had weakened its bargaining power in protracted negotiations over its nuclear programme.

Before this launch, North Korea had some success in persuading people that it should be able to talk one-on-one with the US, said Professor Kim Sung-han of the South Korean Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

"But now no one will tolerate North Korea setting the conditions under which it comes to the negotiating table," he said.

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/arti...813147,00.html

an interpretation:

Quote:

Kim Jong-il overplays his hand

Jonathan Watts, east Asia correspondent
Wednesday July 5, 2006
The Guardian

For the leader of such a small, poor country, Kim Jong-il has once again demonstrated a disturbing knack of attracting global attention. But by ordering the launch today of at least six missiles into the Sea of Japan, the great strategist may have finally been forced to overplay his hand.

With no normal diplomatic relations with the US, North Korea has frequently used grand and provocative gestures to shock Washington and others into negotiations.

Today's launch can be put alongside the test firing of a missile over Japan in 1998, Pyongyang's withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 2003, or its 2005 boast - still unproven by tests - to have developed a nuclear deterrent.

In each of those cases, Mr Kim can claim to have won concessions as a result of his belligerence: the visit by US secretary of state Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang in 1999, the start of six-party talks in 2003, and Washington's declaration last year that it was not focused on regime change in Pyongyang.

With the G8 summit looming, Mr Kim appears to be gambling that his July 4 firework display will once again scare the world into concessions. But there are some big differences that suggest the latest act is desperate rather than shrewd, which could yet blow up in the North Korean leader's face.

The most important is the motivation. To understand why the missiles were launched from Korea today, you have to look thousands of miles south at the banking system in Macau. This shady Chinese island is crucial to North Korea's fragile financial system. It is where money from arms and drug deals is laundered.

Macau is also where many of North Korea's wealthiest citizens stash their foreign currency holdings. But the US is squeezing these deposits like never before and it is hurting more than any previous punitive measures. According to recent visitors to Pyongyang, the pitch of the grumbles is rising. Outside analysts say even military discipline is being affected. This pressure has forced Mr Kim's hand.

But, unlike in the past, he will glean little sympathy from China or South Korea. The missile launch is a slap in the face for the leadership in Beijing, which has spent the past three years trying to forge a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis. Just last week, the Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, publicly called on North Korea not to go ahead with a launch. Beijing was silent today, a sign either of its embarrassment or, possibly, that it is considering a change of policy.

South Korean patience has also been stretched. Calls for a suspension of joint economic projects, such as the Kaesong industrial development, are likely to intensify. Even the office of the pro-engagement president, Roh Moo-hyun, called the launch a provocation that would strengthen the hand of the North's enemies.

That is certainly true in the US and Japan, where voices that had recently been calling for negotiation and compromise will now be shouted down. Compared to past provocations, Tokyo has responded with great firmness - immediately suspending ferry services between the two countries and calling for a meeting of the UN security council. Further financial restrictions could follow.

But perhaps the biggest difference with North Korea's past provocations may be interpreted as proof of weakness. The most advanced missile - the intercontinental Taepodong 2, designed to reach Alaska - fell into the sea less than a minute after launch. It is unclear whether this was because of a failure, an order to abort or because - in some last-minute compromise - it was filled only with a small amount of fuel so that it would not fly over Japan or close to the US. Whatever the reason, it provides ammunition for those who argue Mr Kim is losing his touch.

The risk now is that he may take further drastic measures to restore his power to intimidate. The North Korean leader has proved a survivor, but he is in a corner. He is more isolated than ever. Despite his country's size and poverty, he will also want to show that he is more dangerous.

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/arti...813187,00.html

the macau factor is quite interesting and, as seems usual with the american press, it does not figure as an issue here. too complicated maybe.

the danger here is that both nk and the bush administration seem more than willing to use hysteria over potential military adventures to prop themselves up internationally and domestically. so there are two kinda irrational clowns in a pissing match involving nuclear weapons.

i think the idea of american military action against nk a kind of pipe dream for the right. but it does fit into a dimension of the right's history of military interventions involving such dynamos as grenada and panama.

so it follows, the dueling clown problem.

host · 07-05-2006, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevo

North Korea is a cultist government that is isolated from the world.....

Funny you should post that comment, stevo, because it seems to be an increasingly apt description of the government of another nation, as well....

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

i dont see this as much more than theater--the talks between nk and the 6 countries who want them to stop developing missles are stalled and the tests are apparently being seen as a kind of "PAY ATTENTION TO ME" move. you can read a fairly sane interpretation in the guardian here:

the situation:

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/arti...813147,00.html

an interpretation:

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/arti...813187,00.html

the macau factor is quite interesting and, as seems usual with the american press, it does not figure as an issue here. too complicated maybe.

the danger here is that both nk and the bush administration seem more than willing to use hysteria over potential military adventures to prop themselves up internationally and domestically. so there are two kinda irrational clowns in a pissing match involving nuclear weapons.

i think the idea of american military action against nk a kind of pipe dream for the right. but it does fit into a dimension of the right's history of military interventions involving such dynamos as grenada and panama.

so it follows, the dueling clown problem.

Tick....tick....tick....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpdodt.htm

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdint.htm

<center><center><img src="http://mwhodges.home.att.net/trade_all.gif">

Looks to me like two bullies who squandered a disproportionate share of their respective national wealth, with both now faced with failed, bankrupt economic futures, resorting to the only desperate methods they have left to shore up their dire situations:

....propaganda driven nationalism.....and posturing with the fruits of their malinvestments...the military hardware that they chose to purchase and brandish, at the expense of their respective economic futures.

It seems like a race to determine which country's population and leadership is more blinded by it's own bullshit propaganda and nationalistic zeal. I don't take lightly; my own decision to lump NK and the USA together. I see them both though, as "dead men walking"; because economically, that is the category that both find themselves in, today. The leadership in both countries, disturbingly....seems to be employing the same strategies in response to their economic crises...both as concealment and as avoidance mechanisms.....posturing with, and wildly waving around the guns that hastened their bankruptcies.

The_Jazz · 07-05-2006, 08:22 AM

This is nothing new from the North Koreans. They've been brinksmen for decades, and the late Kim Song-Il played as well, if not better, than his son. North Korean foreign policy has seemed to revolve around playing as close to the edge as possible, and they're really the only one left of the old Cold War players that still plays the game in that old style. Starting a war is a losing proposition for both Koreas, but threating to start one hold lots of potential benefits for North.

Not to belittle the missle launch in any way since it does pose a huge threat to the region's security, but we have been there and done that already. The Bush administration has already conceeded that they have too much on their plate already to spend the resources that it would take to disarm the North Koreans in any sort of effective way.

07-04-2006, 05:27 PM	#1 (permalink)
ASU2003 immoral minority Location: Back in Ohio	What is going to happen with North Korea? I guess that missile defense program doesn't seem like such a waste of money after all. Will the Bush administration negotiate with them and offer them they same kind of deal they put on the table with Iran? Will China get involved somehow if the US puts trade restrictions on countries that ally with? Will there be an invasion by Japan, South Korea, the USA or China (I'm sure they could always use some more land)? Or will there be a few missiles strikes to take out their military? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060705/...nkorea_missile Here are some tourist pictures. It looks like a half-way normal country when you take away all advertisements. And if you took pictures of trailer parks and ghettos in the US, some places might be better in the DPRK. http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showth...8&page=1&pp=20 http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...ad.php?t=82755 Last edited by ASU2003; 07-04-2006 at 05:31 PM..

07-04-2006, 05:41 PM	#2 (permalink)
Toaster126 Extreme moderation Location: Kansas City, yo.	They already did the deal. N. Korea has broken the terms of that deal. I think the question is "now what?". __________________ "The question isn't who is going to let me, it's who is going to stop me." (Ayn Rand) "The truth is that our finest moments are most likely to occur when we are feeling deeply uncomfortable, unhappy, or unfulfilled. For it is only in such moments, propelled by our discomfort, that we are likely to step out of our ruts and start searching for different ways or truer answers." (M. Scott Peck)

07-05-2006, 06:28 AM	#4 (permalink)
stevo Rail Baron Location: Tallyfla	North Korea is a cultist government that is isolated from the world. Shooting off ICBMs is a real smart move Eventuall NK will prove they have the means to hit the US with a missile. Then they go back to their blackmail games. Try to get food, energy, technology from the US for ceasing the missile threat. I expect one day they will claim to have equipped one of those missiles with a nuke, point it at Seattle and make more demands. They won't ever get a chance to fire one. They'll be wiped out before lil' Kim pushes the red button. __________________ "If I am such a genius why am I drunk, lost in the desert, with a bullet in my ass?" -Otto Mannkusser

07-05-2006, 08:22 AM	#7 (permalink)
The_Jazz Asshole Administrator Location: Chicago	This is nothing new from the North Koreans. They've been brinksmen for decades, and the late Kim Song-Il played as well, if not better, than his son. North Korean foreign policy has seemed to revolve around playing as close to the edge as possible, and they're really the only one left of the old Cold War players that still plays the game in that old style. Starting a war is a losing proposition for both Koreas, but threating to start one hold lots of potential benefits for North. Not to belittle the missle launch in any way since it does pose a huge threat to the region's security, but we have been there and done that already. The Bush administration has already conceeded that they have too much on their plate already to spend the resources that it would take to disarm the North Koreans in any sort of effective way. __________________ "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin "There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush "We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

07-04-2006, 08:37 PM	#3 (permalink)
MichaelFarker 2+2=5? Not again! Location: Dallas, Texas	Do you remember how poorly we understood Russia? I think the same is going on here. Does North Korea's leader believe he can defeat the world? Does he believe he can stay in power if he doesn't try? What part is China playing?