dksuddeth

Subject: The Life Span of a Republic
How Long Do We Have?


About the time our original 13 states adopted their
new constitution, in 1787, Alexander Tyler, a Scottish
history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had
this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic
some 2,000 years prior:


"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply
cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A
democracy will continue to exist up until the time
that voters discover they can vote themselves generous
gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on,
the majority always votes for the candidates who
promise the most benefits from the public treasury,
with the result that every democracy will finally
collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is followed by a dictatorship."


"The average age of the worlds greatest civilizations
from the beginning of history, has been about 200
years. During those 200 years, these nations progressed through the following sequence:


1. From bondage to spiritual faith;
2. From spiritual faith to great courage;
3. From courage to liberty;
4. From liberty to abundance;
5. From abundance to complacency;
6. From complacency to apathy;
7. From apathy to dependence;
8. From dependence back into bondage "



Apathy is the greatest danger to our freedom and believe me, I think a majority of americans have become extremely apathetic about freedom.

__________________
"no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything. You cannot conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him."

samcol

That sequence seems to be pretty much what happens. I'd say the danger is significant of losing the republic as we know it. We are one terrorist strike, flu pandemic, economic collapse away from losing control of our government in the name of helping get through the crisis.

Ustwo

I've felt this for quite a while though I never put it into words.

I'd say we are moving from 6 to 7 currently.

Though there is a chance we may be able to avoid an 8 and go back to a 3 provided who wins the next revolution.

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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

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BigBen

Is the author talking about a true democracy, or a democratic dictatorship?

I don't think that historians quite imagined the US political system when researching democracies.

I really enjoyed the insight about the people realizing that they can vote themselves gifts from the public treasury. I wince when I think about the special interest groups and lobbyists doing that very thing today.

JFK really turned it back on the populace, telling the people to answer the call and about "..what you can do for your country." The apathy that abounds today is tempered by fanatics and watchdogs; we are lucky to have people passionate about their homes and future.

Well, I have to agree with Ustwo about where we are on that slippery slope. From complacency to apathy is a really bad place to be.

Yes, the government system will change when a pandemic or another orchestrated terror attack occurs, and not for the better. The liberties and freedoms that were lost in the aftermath of September 11th, 2001 will not return without stong will or (dare I say) bloodshed.

A benevolent dictatorship was the highest level of government a state could achieve in ancient philosophy. Just because all of the modern dictators have been really bad does not mean that the dictatorial system is flawed. What if there was a person who loved the country, its people, and had the public's best interest in mind at all times? Would you not want to have that person run the country?

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Hey, if you are impressed with my memorizing pi to 10 digits, you should see the size of my penis.

nezmot

This is exactly what is happening, especially the US. We've already seen the USSR crumble under the weight of an over ambitious foreign/military policy - and we can already see the beginnings of the US's decline in regards to the national debt, ownership of capital, and growing decadence of the population. It really is only a matter of time. Hopefully it wont cause too much of a mess during the death-throes. Personally, I'd like to see the US break up into smaller, more manageable, independent states.

As for the dictatorial system being flawed - of course it is. Benevolent dictators are great, but at best, will only last for 60 years or so - at which point you have to cross your fingers and hope that the next dictator will also be a benevolent one. Democracy (as we know it) is the same, except each dictator can only last for 4 years if we decide we don't like them.

In this respect, democracy is fine - but like all good things, everything must come to an end - 200 years isn't really that bad - although, if you look at your history books, the United Kingdom (depending on your definition of democracy) has had a democratic form of government for between 800 and 400 years. Not bad going eh?

Hardknock

I don't see us lasting out the decade if we go to war with Iran.

I can see it now, OPEC gets pissed, turn off the oil spigot and they sit back and watch the American economy destroy itself.

flstf

I agree, I don't know about number 8 though. I imagine that one or more of the new countries after the breakup will embrace freedom and liberty when the smoke clears.

Ustwo

You mean the only way to get oil is to BUY it from OPEC?

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Willravel

Apathy isn't just a danger for governmental organizations, it's a danger to anything one is apathetic towards. If I was apathetic towards my daughter, she would be in danger. If I were apathetic towards my driving skills, myself and other drivers would be in danger. The trick is being able to set priorities of attention based on the effects of apathy on every responsibility you have. It IS your and my responsibility to run the government just the same as it is to drive safely or care for our loved ones. The problem is that while the consequensed of apath on the road or in the home are blatent and come quickly, the effects of apathy in a democracy take time. If one generation is apathetic, their children will see the result. We are not a forward thinking species, and thus we prioritise responsibilities with quicker results.

djtestudo

Nah, because we'll just cut off all the AID we give to them and use that money to buy our oil and finally develop new fuels/sources of energy.

__________________
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--Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

Hardknock

Where else are we going to get black gold genius? ANWR? Good luck if you think there's enough oil in my home state to sustain us.

Are you implying that we TAKE it from OPEC nations thereby pissing everyong off and starting a new arms race?

Hardknock

And where exactly would said oil come from if not the middle east?

ubertuber

__________________
Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam

Ustwo

Edit:Forget it

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

The_Jazz

After the fall of the US government, I plan on selling pieces of fallen sky to Elvis and the rest of the aliens.

Hopefully lighthearted sarcasm is still allowed in this thread.

Seriously, I cannot imagine the US being in any danger of ceasing to exist in my lifetime. I can foresee a period of basic rights being severely curtailed, but I think that would be a short-term problem that would be very dramatic but most certainly nonviolent.

Tyler's view of history has three problems. First of all, it's written from the perspective of a monarchist. Second, he's talking about a democracy, not a republic. Athens was a democracy, not a republic. The people of Athens voted on bills directly themselves. Finally, his theory is pretty much disproven by the examples of China, which acheived greatness without any notion of "liberty" in the 1400's, and France, which was the predominate land power in Europe from 1500 to c.1875 while going through 3 revolutions.

__________________
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin
"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

politicophile

Athens was a totally different sort of regime in a totally different technological and historical context. Our experiment with representative government is infinitely more sophisticated and has the potential of lasting far, far longer than 200 years.

It seems that virtually everyone in every generation thinks the world is going to become a shithole once the next generation takes over. Hasn't happened yet, IMO.

The U.S. still has the world's best army, the world's largest economy, and widespread political legitimacy. If the people believe the government represents them and if they are not living in poverty, the regime will be stable from within. Our army is sufficient to protect us from overseas threats.

__________________
The peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is, that it is robbing the human race; posterity as well as the existing generation; those who dissent from the opinion, still more than those who hold it. If the opinion is right, they are deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth: if wrong, they lose, what is almost as great a benefit, the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error. ~John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

Hardknock

Did you make sure to publicly ridicule Ustwo's attempt at sarsacm as well?

That's something you never see.....

Also, I'm not being sarcastic. There really isn't enough oil back home to sustain us. If people would just take the time to do their own research.....

nofnway

Some geologists believe that a geological formation under the Dakotas, Montana and Canada known as the "Bakken" could contain between 200 and 400 Billion barrels of oil. http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06095/679602-28.stm

The USGS has more reserved estimates but notes the likely presence of many Trillions of cubic feet of natural gas..http://energy.usgs.gov/

Synthetic fuels can be manufactured from coal...including gasoline. The U.S. has the largest proven fields of coal in the world as well.

Then there is the possibility (though still debated) of abiogenic production of oil. Some scientist are investigating the possibility that certain fields of hydrocarbons are actually refilling. Several of these fields show that the hydrocarbons are developing much too deep in the earth's crust to come from biological sources.


The Point being....oil will not be the downfall of the U.S.

Politics and policy will...the ending of our rights as we know them, the suspension of liberty.

I have to hope our Unique set of checks and balances will find a way to hold it all together because number 8 aint looking so good.

__________________
"Iron rusts with disuse, stagnant water loses its purity and in cold water freezes. Even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind"
Leonardo Da Vinci

SteelyLoins

Kind of says it all.