Poppinjay

Before this is dismissed as another partisan slam, this post is the result of listening to the John Batchelor show. John Batchelor is a die-hard Republican, and wrote a book on the history of the GOP.

His show did their own poll today after the news of Bush leaking intelligence (sorry, I just had to put it that way). They were finishing up the results and handed them to John just before a break, and his reaction was, "so we find the president's approval rating at.... dear lord."

He comes back to report that this poll organized by a GOP friendly radio show finds Bush is at 35%, the lowest ever in modern polling. So his topic is, "why the low approval when the economy is roaring?" Housing starts up 11%, full employment, the world economy is rumbling.

I think this would disprove Carville's statement, "it's the economy, stupid." It may have been the economy in 1992, but that obviously has changed. Values, which is what Bush ran on, is apparently biting him in the ass, as scandal and blunder follow each other ass over tea kettle.

So the thought that Batchelor had was, "Republicans, you have to run on jobs, jobs, jobs (meaning the booming economy under a GOP congress and president), Democrats you have to run on, it's not jobs".

So, will Dems have to run on values, while the GOP adopts, "it's the economy, stupid"?

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Elphaba

Poppinjay, the "roaring" economy isn't raising all boats. In fact, the "haves" are almost the entire lot of the beneficiaries. Look to any nonpartisan source, and the alarms about the value of the dollar are quite clear. Petrodollars are being shifted to the Euro for good reason. The US cannot sustain the current debt spiral and our government deficit is presently being sustained primarily by China. It will take decades to recover from this administration's overall incompetence.

samcol

Really all the Dems have to run on is 'not-republican', but it is likely they will find a way to mess that simple platform up.

And I agree with Elphaba, the dollar is being devalued like never before. Any talk about a booming economy is just smoke and mirrors.

Yakk

One thing to take into account is that "inflation" and "unemployment" don't mean what they used to.

Folks discovered that with a bit of wrangling, you could make the economy look better, and up your poll numbers.

All you have to do is change how you define inflation and unemployment...

Some data:
http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/bgn

This site claims that if you used the CPI definition from pre-1992, inflation is 3% higher than the official government numbers claim.

Simularly, using the definition of unemployment used during the great depression, unempolyment is upwards of 12%.

See: http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi...article/id=341

Maybe this data is inaccurate. But it seems reasonable.

If this is true, then the economy isn't as good as the numbers claim. And it would explain some of the soft support.

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Ustwo

Ironicly its all they have run on for the last 8 or so years. Might finally work for them, but even so you need to give people reasons to vote FOR you if you plan on holding anything.

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host

Good advice. Have Newt, Bush, Delay, Frist, Hastert, or Pat Roberts, given middle class voters (besides Paula Jones or the Schiavo parents) reasons to vote for any of them?

JustJess

^^Clearly, that's not what it's really about. At the time of those elections, the polls didn't show this kind of opinion about the major GOP leaders nationwide. So the point here is... what's it going to take for either party to win the next election?

I have to agree that for the Dems to do anything, they're going to have to unify a bit and not just be the "not-GOP" party. They have to have some opinions on things, and stick to them. Just because I don't like Bush doesn't mean I automatically hate all Republicans and trust all Democrats. They have to give me a little more to go on.

I think (hope?) that the next election, while the parties will still do all their partisan bullshit, the people will be more interested in voting for qualified candidates, no matter what party they're in. But I am afraid that they'll just vote for whoever is opposite of the incumbent.

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Rodney

As a disillusioned Democrat, I have to agree. I have many criticisms about corruption and malfeasance in the ruling Republican regime -- I think it's running the country into the ground. But the Democrats aren't really much better -- certainly no more honest. Put them in power, it'd just take a little longer for things to fall apart. Both parties are beholden to what big money wants -- otherwise, Clinton the Democrat would have never signed off on NAFTA, right or wrong.

The Dems don't want to commit to anything because they don't want to have to make any promises their corporate masters won't allow them to keep. How convenient to get into office as a "reform" party _without committing to anything substantive._

I actually think they're still going to blow it -- by the skin of their teeth, but blow it nonetheless. And they deserve to. The Schumers and Clintons in Washington are controlling the "new generation" of Dem congression candidates by passing the word down to big contributors and local party bosses who they should or shouldn't support -- plus money to the annointed candidates. Which I predict means more corporate shills in the clothing of benevolence.

Rodney

As for the "hot economy," many of the jobs being created are part-time or without benefits. Let me tell you about the temp job I have right now:

I'm working in a public university in the publications dept. They have _two_ temporary four hour openings: one in the morning, one in afternoon. Same work, same workstation even. Why have two instead of one? So they don't have to pay benes, which would be required otherwise.

And there's a lot of that going around: multiple half-time jobs instead of single full-time jobs, and I'm talking knowledge-worker jobs here.

Aside from that, it's starting to dawn on some folks that the booming economy could deflate fairly quickly. A big part of the economic growth of the last few years has been built on creative credit, low interest rates, home equity cash-outs, and a booming real estate, mortgage, and home construction industries. Pull out the low interest rates -- just that one change -- and it all starts to fall apart. Home equity cash vanishes. Hundreds of thousands of jobs vanish in construction and real estate and banking. Foreclosures rise, real estate prices fall. You want a scary figure: one in 50 adult Californians has a real estate license. A whole lot of them are going to be on the street soon, if they ever even got off the street.

djtestudo

You know, I would bet that if you asked the honest opinion of the "average" person in both parties, they would say that both parties are going to run the country into the ground, but theirs will do it more slowly.

Yet very few people have the time, or are willing to make the time, to change things.

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Rodney

Why do you think that is? And why aren't you volunteering to lead us all to the promised land :-) ?

Paq

Exactly.. I've seen at least 45 different people, mostly women, whom i have worked with over the past 4 yrs drop jobs to get a real estate license and cash in on what i see to be a fast buck. It cannot hold, quite honestly, adn i believe the loss of the low interest rates will be the first hiccup and everything after that will plummet.

I also agree that it sickens me at how few full time jobs with benefits there are anymore. Literally dozens of my friends have been phased down to part time status where 2 people do the job that 1 used to do...and since they are part time, they get paid about 15-20% less AND get absolutely no benefits, or, at the most, a week's paid vacation after a year...(25 hrs at standard pay) To think that my father's generation worked an entire life at one company and can retire on the pension given by that company...it just makes me so frustrated now. I cannot forsee me or anyone else my age working at the same company for more than 5 yrs anymore. After that, it's like they are phased out, dropped, Shifted, or dropped to part time when they start to get antsy about benefits, vacations, retirement, etc. Hell, the manager at the restaurant i work at right now has been wtih the owner for almost 9 years and still barely gets health insurance, does not have any form of retirement plan or pension, and barely gets 2 wks vacation, while being on salary for 65-70 hrs/wk, at a cutrate salary..

and whatever happened to employer/employee loyalty? It's seriously becoming so much of an us against them mentality in the workplace as well. No matter how high up you are, you're always butting against anyoen above you...or below you..or beside you...disgusting.

scary stuff.

and i don't see it changing when the GOP is booted from the whitehouse..

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djtestudo

Because I don't have, and am not willing to make, the time

Nah...I'm just still hacking out my political ideology before I go do something like that

__________________
"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen."
--Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

Willravel

All the dems need is someone who's likeable. Platforms and such really aren't important in winning presidental elections anymore. Get a good looking, well spoken and yet down home gentelman who isn't a Bush and the dems will win. Think a neutered Clinton.

Meanwhile, I'm voting green.