Change in the world
 

As we look through history, we see many trends. Some repeat themselves, some die out. A good example is sexuality; It goes through periods where sex defines a civilization, and then through periods where sex is villified. There is no definite trend... it always changes back and forth, sometimes at two different levels in two different parts of the world.

Given the history of trends, do you believe there are things that absolutely change the world? A big concern right now is global warming and how we could be washed out, but wouldn't that just fulfill a cycle in the earth's life?

Short of writing "CHA" on the moon's face, do you believe there have been events that point towards a trend, rather than a cycle?

Events that change world can be defined as paradigm shifts, not necessarily as trends or cycles but rather major structural change. Thus, I would contend that there are events that are of great significance that do not denote a trend or cycle.

One example would be the notion of nationhood as we know it today. The nation-state sharply changed the way people viewed themselves and organized their socio-political groups. Instead of viewing this "event" as a trend or a cycle, it should be viewed as a major change in the fundamental structure of human history. To support this idea, a specific event can be cited as a the catalyst for this paradigm shift. To wit, the French Revolution, triggered by the American Revolution created a nation-state based on the idea of a distinct political grouping of people, Frenchmen, and a defined political border comprising the nation-state. This idea contrasts with the previous norm of empire, kingdoms - that is, suzerainty defined by a ruling monarch governing subjects, not citizens in a defined grouping with no real borders to speak of other than a taxable peasent base.

As part of the taxable peasant base, the trending, such as we see of it, will lie to us to collect more taxes...until we're deceived s'more, c'mon!

I believe medicine and, to a lesser extent, the internet have absolutely changed the world, are still changing it and will continue to change it. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse.

The plow radically changed the world in that it allowed is to plant crops at a much greater rate. The ability to grow surplus amounts of food allowed us to expand out population base.

The invention of mass, cheap transit allowed many people to venture beyond the confines of their village. The allowed for the spread of our genetic code (eventually) across the planet.

Technologies of all kinds are also progressive rather than cyclic, as seen by Ford's first assembly line to today's robotics. I understand that a type of organic "machine" is being researched at this time.

Global populations could be said to be trending toward larger and larger numbers at an exponential rate. But should those numbers reach a tipping point in which our environment can no longer support the numbers, it is possible that a cyclic type response would occur to greatly reduce the population to a sustainable number.

Three trends that might have some sub-cycles in them, but have been pretty damn monotonic over the last little while.

Long term: Brain to body mass ratios in animals. Since life.

Medium term: The availiability of cheap energy. Since fire.

Short term: Information processing capacity of technology. Since the jaquard loom.