The Next Major Conflict
 

The "when will we get nuked?" thread reminded me of a theory I've held for some time now; specifically, that we will experience the next global armed conflict within 10 or 15 years. If you look at the cycle of past conflict, you can make out some simple patterns: every twenty years or so there is a major conflict somewhere in the world, and the beginning of new centuries seems to be the historical breeding ground for truly massive wars.

So, if we extrapolate this forward, we'll see another world war in the coming decades. The question then becomes who will be the major players and why are they fighting each other? I personally see the next major war coming from one of three places: the Middle East boils over as Arab nations band together and attack Israel (though after the war in Iraq it is both highly doubtful that these nations would make such a move and they also lack the firepower that Iraq could have provided), the tensions between India and Pakistan escalate into tactical nuclear warfare, or mainland China finally tires of toying with Taiwan, invades it, and goes into a standoff with the United States to attempt prevention of their involvement. Recent news of China and Russia beginning joint military exercises again, along with Pres. Putin's history in the KGB and the firing of basically his entire government, lends to the last theory the possibilty of having two major military powers at least friendly towards each other in the event of conflict.

So, what does everyone else think? Will there be WWIII soon? Who will be fighting? Why?

(In case you hadn't noticed, this is my first post here, and I've always wanted to hear other people's opinions on my little crackpot theory, so yeah.)

Hmmm, I don't think China would bother taking over Taiwan. And I don't think the Arabs would try to attack Israel again. They must of learned there lesson by now...

Actually, my guess would be North Korea starting shit..

I am happy that there are people on this planet that think and wonder about this so that I will never have to....

We might see nukes, but either in a terrorist situation or, more likely, in a single-theater conflict like Pakistan/India or Israel/Arabs. What'll happen then is that somebody'll throw a nuke, the devastion will be horrible, the radiation will kill or sicken hundreds of thousands 1000-2000 miles downwind, and the rest of the world will fall on the two combatants and shut 'em down.

Nukes aren't really meant to be used; they're large-scale weapons meant as a deterrent only. If you actually use them, it means you're crazy or all conceivable diplomacy has failed. That's why efforts by the Bush administration to start developing smaller nukes for the battlefield and tactical targets are ill-advised: it's not so much a policy problem as a cultural problem, because it blurs the line between what's acceptable and what isn't. Right now, no nukes are acceptable in normal operations. But suppose _some_ are, of a certain size used in a certain way. Then where do you draw the line between proper and improper use of nukes? People -- the public, the military, diplomats, terrorists -- get the hazy idea that _some_ nukes are okay in some situations, and pretty soon they're being used more and more casually until something really nasty and unexpected happens. Not good.

Remember the China spy plane incident several years ago? I was certain that would turn into a trigger.

I may be wrong, but I think that UN resolution that the US vetoed recently about condemming the killing of the Hamas leader was proposed by Russia. That shows a large difference between these two countries.

Hmm.

i think US will go into north Korea, or Syria, the reasons will be shallow as usual and the world community will condemn it. But i see China growing into an economic super power and US going bankrupt, desperately trying to solve the economic crisis with wars and ending up making situations were terrorist organisations will flurish. It will start and end without any tactical nuking.

just posted about this in art's "apocolyptic dreams" thread.

I heard a loud & clear voice one night in my sleep about 1 or 2 years ago. It said that there will be 2 events of world chaos- one in 2011, and the second to happen *year* (i can't remember- i want to say at the end of the 2k...) and that the world would collapse from the condition it was in caused by humans. It shook me awake.