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Old 09-17-2006, 08:06 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Are the gas prices being controlled to change the outcome of the midterm elections?

Unless you have been under a rock, you have noticed that gas prices have come down a lot recently. On Aug 21, I paid $3.499 for a gallon of gas (true it was in the middle of the AZ desert, I only bought 2 gallons in order to get to where it was $3.20). Today, I saw gas for $2.059/gal in Ohio.

Now, I know that the price of a barrel of oil on the commodity market has fallen from ~$75 -> ~$63. But why would a ~15% drop in the price of the barrel cause the price of a gallon of gas to drop -33%?

I'm not sure if these numbers are accurate or not, but someone else quoted them on another forum.

Percentage breakdown in the cost of a gallon of gas:
47% crude oil market price
18% refining costs
23% taxes (I don't think taxes are that much, and aren't they a fixed amount)
12% distribution costs
?% profit

But, I'm sure the percentages change when the price is $3.50 versus $2 versus $1. And the auto gas part is only ~19.5 gallons out of 42 gallons of crude.

Last time the prices were this low, a barrel of oil cost around $50 (March 2005 by my records)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:O...Short_Term.png
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:G...Short_Term.png

So, were the oil companies just charging us more money for the past two years because they could (would it really be $90 -$100/barrel that would cost $3/gal, and they were taking the extra money in profits)? Or do the politicians worry about the challengers using the expensive gas argument against the people in office right now? And what has really changed in the world in the past 3 or 4 weeks? The Iran situation hasn't really changed, Iraq hasn't really started to produce too much, they have to shut down the BP pipeline in Alaska for a while to fix it, the demand for gas hasn't changed, there is no competition from alternative fuels yet, refinery costs haven’t changed, and taxes haven’t changed. The oil companies might be taking a lot less in the way of profits though, we will find out when the next quarterly statements come out. The only positive thing that might reduce the price is that they found some more oil a long way down in the Gulf of Mexico, and the summer driving season is slowing down.

(Just to clearify, I am complaining about lower gas prices , and it probably is just the normal market forces at work, but it always seems to benefit the right people at the right times)

Last edited by ASU2003; 09-17-2006 at 08:09 PM..
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Old 09-17-2006, 08:12 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Who gets more votes when gas prices are down?
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Old 09-17-2006, 08:34 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toaster126
Who gets more votes when gas prices are down?
Whoever is currently in office because the voting public isn't upset at paying really high gas prices. And in this country we tend to forget about things, so who cares if we were paying more than $3 back in Aug, we are paying $1.99 now, so the person in office must not be doing too bad. But, if it was $3, who ever was running against them would be getting a lot more votes from people who weren't happy at the high prices.
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Old 09-17-2006, 10:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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And you thought this was Paranoia because?

ASU2003, this is a legitimate question that you could have posted in General or Politics. There is nothing at all paranoid about a question regarding the manipulation of gas prices.

I suggest you request that this topic get moved to another forum. My choice would be Politics, because that is the source of price manipulation imo.

Great topic btw.
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Old 09-17-2006, 10:28 PM   #5 (permalink)
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It belongs in parinoia until some sort of proof comes out to prove it.

I'm in an area with artifically high prices due to summer EPA regulations, gas has been 40-50 cents cheaper per gallon if you went about 50 miles west or east of Chicago, even at the height of the prices.

Prices have also been predicted to plunge for a while now. Now of course those analyists could be in on it too......

Unless someone comes up with a paper trail its no more valid than someone who claims that the specualtion which brought oil prices so high was fueled by billionares who wanted to bring the gas prices up to effect the election.

Here is some basic educational material on the subject.

Quote:
WHAT ARE THE COMPONENTS OF THE RETAIL PRICE OF GASOLINE?

The cost to produce and deliver gasoline to consumers includes the cost of crude oil to refiners, refinery processing costs, marketing and distribution costs, and finally the retail station costs and taxes. The prices paid by consumers at the pump reflect these costs, as well as the profits (and sometimes losses) of refiners, marketers, distributors, and retail station owners.

In 2004, the price of crude oil averaged $36.97 per barrel, and crude oil accounted for about 47% of the cost of a gallon of regular grade gasoline (Figure 1). In comparison, the average price for crude oil in 2003 was $28.50 per barrel, and it composed 44% of the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline. The share of the retail price of regular grade gasoline that crude oil costs represent varies somewhat over time and among regions.

Federal, State, and local taxes are a large component of the retail price of gasoline. Taxes (not including county and local taxes) account for approximately 23 percent of the cost of a gallon of gasoline. Within this national average, Federal excise taxes are 18.4 cents per gallon and State excise taxes average about 21 cents per gallon.2 Also, eleven States levy additional State sales and other taxes, some of which are applied to the Federal and State excise taxes. Additional local county and city taxes can have a significant impact on the price of gasoline.

Refining costs and profits comprise about 18% of the retail price of gasoline. This component varies from region to region due to the different formulations required in different parts of the country.

Distribution, marketing and retail dealer costs and profits combined make up 12% of the cost of a gallon of gasoline.From the refinery, most gasoline is shipped first by pipeline to terminals near consuming areas, then loaded into trucks for delivery to individual stations. Some retail outlets are owned and operated by refiners, while others are independent businesses that purchase gasoline for resale to the public. The price on the pump reflects both the retailer’s purchase cost for the product and the other costs of operating the service station. It also reflects local market conditions and factors, such as the desirability of the location and the marketing strategy of the owner.

FACTORS BEHIND THE INCREASE IN GASOLINE PRICES IN 2005

Since the beginning of 2005, U.S. retail gasoline prices have been generally increasing, with the average price of regular gasoline rising from $1.78 per gallon on January 3 to as high as $3.07 per gallon on September 5, as Hurricane Katrina further tightened gasoline supplies. But the hurricane is only one factor, albeit a dramatic one, which has caused gasoline prices to rise in 2005.

A major factor influencing gasoline prices in 2005 was the increase in crude oil prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, which started the year at about $42 per barrel, reached $70 per barrel in early September. Crude oil prices rose throughout 2004 and 2005, as global oil demand increased dramatically, stretching capacity along the entire oil market system, from crude oil production to transportation (tankers and pipelines) to refinery capacity, nearly to its limits. With minimal spare capacity in the face of the potential for significant supply disruptions from numerous sources, oil prices were high throughout 2005.

In addition, Hurricane Katrina had a devastating impact on U.S. gasoline markets, initially taking out more than 25 percent of U.S. crude oil production and 10-15 percent of U.S. refinery capacity. On top of that, major oil pipelines that feed the Midwest and the East Coast from the Gulf of Mexico area were shut down or forced to operate at reduced rates for a significant period. With such a large drop in supply, prices spiked dramatically. Because two pipelines that carry gasoline were down initially, some stations actually ran out of gasoline temporarily. However, once the pipelines were restored to full capacity and some of the refineries were restarted, retail prices began to fall. Increased gasoline imports in the fall of 2005, in part stemming from the International Energy Agency’s emergency release, also added downward pressure to gasoline prices. However, retail prices are likely to remain elevated as long as some refineries remain shut down and the U.S. gasoline market continues to stretch supplies to their limit.

WHY DO GASOLINE PRICES FLUCTUATE?

Even when crude oil prices are stable, gasoline prices normally fluctuate due to factors such as seasonality and local retail station competition. Additionally, gasoline prices can change rapidly due to crude oil supply disruptions stemming from world events, or domestic problems such as refinery or pipeline outages.

Seasonality in the demand for gasoline - When crude oil prices are stable, retail gasoline prices tend to gradually rise before and during the summer, when people drive more, and fall in the winter. Good weather and vacations cause U.S. summer gasoline demand to average about 5% higher than during the rest of the year. If crude oil prices remain unchanged, gasoline prices would typically increase by 10-20 cents from January to the summer.

Changes in the cost of crude oil - Events in crude oil markets were a major factor in all but one of the five run-ups in gasoline prices between 1992 and 1997, according to the National Petroleum Council’s study, U.S. Petroleum Supply - Inventory Dynamics.

About 47 barrels of gasoline are produced from every 100 barrels of crude oil processed at U. S. refineries, with other refined products making up the remainder.

Crude oil prices are determined by worldwide supply and demand, with significant influence by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Since it was organized in 1960, OPEC has tried to keep world oil prices at its target level by setting an upper production limit on its members. OPEC has the potential to influence oil prices worldwide because its members possess such a great portion of the world’s oil supply, accounting for about 40% of the world’s production of crude oil and holding more than two-thirds of the world’s estimated crude oil reserves. Additionally, increased demand for gasoline and other refined products in the U.S. and the rest of the world is also exerting upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Rapid gasoline price increases have occurred in response to crude oil shortages caused by, for example, the Arab oil embargo in 1973, the Iranian revolution in 1978, the Iran/Iraq war in 1980, and the Persian Gulf conflict in 1990. Gasoline price increases in recent years have been due in part to OPEC crude oil production cuts, turmoil in key oil producing countries, and problems with petroleum infrastructure (e.g., refineries and pipelines) within the United States. Additionally, increased demand for gasoline and other petroleum products in the U. S. and the rest of the world is also exerting upward pressure on prices.

Product supply/demand imbalances - If demand rises quickly or supply declines unexpectedly due to refinery production problems or lagging imports, gasoline inventories (stocks) may decline rapidly. When stocks are low and falling, some wholesalers become concerned that supplies may not be adequate over the short term and bid higher for available product. Such imbalances have occurred when a region has changed from one fuel type to another (e.g., to cleaner-burning gasoline) as refiners and marketers adjust to the new product.

Gasoline may be less expensive in one summer when supplies are plentiful vs another summer when they are not. These are normal price fluctuations, experienced in all commodity markets.

However, prices of basic energy (gasoline, electricity, natural gas, heating oil) are generally more volatile than prices of other commodities. One reason is that consumers are limited in their ability to substitute between fuels when the price for gasoline, for example, fluctuates. So, while consumers can substitute readily between food products when relative prices shift, most do not have that option in fueling their vehicles.
This of course does not prove prices are not being manipulated, but it does give a place to start to look for why prices have changed. Its to late for me to do so right now.
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Old 09-17-2006, 11:35 PM   #6 (permalink)
immoral minority
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elphaba
And you thought this was Paranoia because?

ASU2003, this is a legitimate question that you could have posted in General or Politics. There is nothing at all paranoid about a question regarding the manipulation of gas prices.

It is still a theory at this point. I had started to put it in politics, but decided to put it here because going through all of the oil companies earnings reports, verses the oil consumed, and the price per barrel, and speculation and equipment upgrades rolled into the price, it is really hard to do anything more than just take a wild guess. The numbers are out there, but it is hard to tell if this is just a market correction and the oil companies decided to cut back on the amount of profits they were getting from 15% to 5 for no reason, let's say. Or if the people who have close races come Nov. just happen to be friends with the guys who run the oil companies, and they had to call in a favor to get them to reduce the price.

It will be even more interesting if the price goes up a lot right before Thanksgiving for some reason.
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Old 09-18-2006, 04:53 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
Prices have also been predicted to plunge for a while now.
Well, of course they've been predicted to plunge. It's easy enough to predict when one knows that it's an election year, and November looms large on the horizon.

I don't see this as paranoia so much as common sense.

Now, it could, I supose, all just be a very happy coincidence...but you'll forgive my marked skepticism.
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Old 09-18-2006, 05:26 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill O'Rights

Now, it could, I supose, all just be a very happy coincidence...but you'll forgive my marked skepticism.
And when the price goes down in non-election years?
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Old 09-18-2006, 06:51 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Every other year is an election year. So its not necessarily a "very happy coincidence" as it is a "common coincidence."

Are we going to say that every time the price of gas falls at the end of an even-year summer its a conspiracy?

Here's a good explanation on why the drop:

Quote:
Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices
By Kevin G. Hall

McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s — perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.

"All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip Verleger, a noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in warning that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised for a dramatic plunge.

Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from their July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel inventories a bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to continue, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.

Here's why:

For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand, particularly from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create shortages.

Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes might topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and companies that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total trading. Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're seeking profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent years, according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the future bid up the price of oil.

That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil are approaching 1990 levels.

But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The hurricane season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. peak summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.

With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal evidence of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.

All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.

"If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like we had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil," said Gary Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy hedge fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."

As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according to the AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen to $2.856 currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent, according to AAA.

Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon.

Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a race to the bottom could break out.

"The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained," said Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy in Boston.

On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But that would take time.

"That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold winter here [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't know where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if things start falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has nothing to do with production."

Copyright © 2006 The Seattle Times Company
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...nsumers14.html
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Old 09-18-2006, 07:04 AM   #10 (permalink)
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for what its worth to whomever wants to believe it, this is what the radio here has been saying...

they changed the gas mix from the summer *smog control* mixture to the winter mixture....(which is why gas is always cheaper in winter than summer)
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Old 09-18-2006, 07:20 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I personally think they lowered prices, because people were complaining that they were $3/gallon. I don't know about elsewhere, but here gas is now in the high $2/gallon ($2.7, or 2.8ish). I think they want to give us a warm fuzzy feeling "Oh, at least I'm not paying 3.20 a gallon", and then prices will surge to $4/gallon next year, and they will ease gas prices to $3.8, or $3.60 so we'll say "phew, at least I'm not paying $4 a gallon!" The election might have something to do with it, but I really don't think so.
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Old 09-18-2006, 07:26 AM   #12 (permalink)
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I paid 2.23 this morning for gas.....

somehow I dont think they lowered it because we were complaining lol....I've been complaining for a year
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Old 09-18-2006, 07:36 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kurty[B]
I personally think they lowered prices, because people were complaining that they were $3/gallon. ....
Not exactly, but thats a good one.
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Old 09-18-2006, 10:06 AM   #14 (permalink)
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for anyone that might be interested, this page shows you a breakdown of what each states gas price is made up of

http://www.southcarolinagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx

for example, where I live in GA we pay 7.5 cpg (cents per gallon) on top of the federal tax of 18.4 cpg AND we pay a 4% sales tax

Hawaii which has the most expensive gas on average of any state pays
the federal of 18.4 cpg, the state of 16.1 cpg plus a local tax depending on where you are of anywher from 8.8 to 18 cpg AND a sales tax of 4.166
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Old 09-18-2006, 10:30 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I guess Utah lives under a rock, because the place I get gas has dropped from 2.84 a gallon to 2.82. Some of the pricier places have dropped about ten cents, from 2.99 to 2.89. Not much difference here.

*puts paranoia hat on*

If this theory is true, gas companies wouldn't need to drop gas here, because Utah is a very conservative state and always votes Republican, which would benefit those already in office.
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Old 09-18-2006, 02:43 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Sheesh, proof once again that Washington is one of the highest taxed states in the country. The chart doesn't mention it, but we have a 9cpg tax just for road construction.

Good find, Shani
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Old 09-18-2006, 03:58 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Oil prices generally climb during the summer 'driving season' and come down afterwards (i.e. around now). There's nothing particularly unusual about the recent price behavior.
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Old 09-30-2006, 04:36 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Steve Forbes predicted last year on Fox news that the gas prices would drop drastically right before the midterm elections. (I believe he said $1.70) I don't think it will get that low personally, but I'm not surprized by the sudden drop. The oil companies know that they'll have a much easyer time if the house and senate stay as they are. Don't be shocked though if were back up to $3 by Christmas.
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Old 10-03-2006, 10:08 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I had the thought today, that it might be the super rich who may have invested heavily in oil (through hedge funds, mutual fund managers, retirement managers), and then collectively decided to sell a few weeks ago. The investor premium might have artificially created demand and took off billions of oil from the market. They would also favor a tax cut friendly government...
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Old 10-03-2006, 10:24 PM   #20 (permalink)
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There are many things which are not a coincidence this election cycle.

Bob Woodwards book and the Foley stuff comming out 40 days before the election, are not a coincidence.

Gas prices would be.

And Asu2003 the super rich don't have to worry about taxes, in fact they can afford liberal policies in general. Its the 'working rich' who get nailed by the taxes.
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Old 10-03-2006, 10:47 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Saw this somewhere, I'm not sufficiently motivated to provide a link.

Quote:
A USA Today/Gallup poll conducted last weekend found that 42 percent
of the roughly 1,000 adults surveyed nationwide said they believed the
Bush administration had 'deliberately manipulated the price of
gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall's elections,' "
the New York Times reports:

Tangible reasons cited for the dip in prices include the end of
the Israeli-Hezbollah war, which had raised tensions across the Middle
East. Also, forecasts of a severe hurricane season that could disrupt
oil supplies from the Gulf of Mexico have not, so far, panned out.

So in an election year, the Bush administration is able to stop
hurricanes. We guess the president likes winning even more than he
hates black people. Of course, the New York Times might have
anticipated that, as the Associated Press notes, "cooler ocean
temperatures" this year would lead to fewer hurricanes and thus
cheaper gasoline. But instead they suppressed this news! Can there be
any doubt that the Times's editors are taking orders from Karl Rove
himself?
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Old 10-08-2008, 04:41 PM   #22 (permalink)
immoral minority
 
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Location: Back in Ohio
Quote:
Originally Posted by kurty[B] View Post
I personally think they lowered prices, because people were complaining that they were $3/gallon. I don't know about elsewhere, but here gas is now in the high $2/gallon ($2.7, or 2.8ish). I think they want to give us a warm fuzzy feeling "Oh, at least I'm not paying 3.20 a gallon", and then prices will surge to $4/gallon next year, and they will ease gas prices to $3.8, or $3.60 so we'll say "phew, at least I'm not paying $4 a gallon!" The election might have something to do with it, but I really don't think so.
So it's election time again, and I thought I should find this from two years ago. Gas just happened to fall $0.80 in the past week or so. From $3.80 to $3.01 I saw today. I bet it won't go up again until January or so. And I wouldn't be surprised if people are happy it's $3/gallon since it was worse not too long ago.

Now, the economy is the big issue this election, it isn't the gas prices as much. But since this is in paranoia, I'll say I bet that the big oil producers are concerned that there is a lot of talk from both sides to develop alternative fuel cars. Even I am building one now. It would be interesting to see how much big oil lobbyists are putting into congressional elections this time around.

So, did oil producers, oil investors and oil cartels figure out that $5/gallon is the price where Americans start complaining enough to actually do something about it?
I'll have to look through my 2007 receipts to see if there is a pattern of gas prices coming down in Oct/Nov.
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