Aug 22 - Something to be paranoid about? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

darens42 · 08-14-2006, 07:13 PM

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...l=968350060724

Beware Aug. 22 and Iran's apocalyptic view
Aug. 12, 2006. 01:00 AM
BERNARD LEWIS
SPECIAL TO THE STAR

During the Cold War, both sides possessed weapons of mass destruction, but neither side used them, deterred by what was known as MAD, mutual assured destruction.

Similar constraints have no doubt prevented their use in the confrontation between India and Pakistan. In our own day a new such confrontation seems to be looming between a nuclear-armed Iran and its favourite enemies, named by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as the Great Satan and the Little Satan, i.e., the United States and Israel. Against the U.S. the bombs might be delivered by terrorists, a method having the advantage of bearing no return address. Against Israel, the target is small enough to attempt obliteration by direct bombardment.

It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad seems to indicate the reality and the imminence of this threat.

Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel?

There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic world view of Iran's present rulers. This world view and expectation clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples.

Even in the past it was clear that terrorists claiming to act in the name of Islam had no compunction in slaughtering large numbers of fellow Muslims. A notable example was the blowing up of the American embassies in East Africa in 1998, killing a few American diplomats and a much larger number of uninvolved local passersby, many of them Muslims. The phrase "Allah will know his own" is usually used to explain such apparently callous unconcern; it means that while infidel, i.e., non-Muslim, victims will go to a well-deserved punishment in hell, Muslims will be sent straight to heaven. According to this view, bombers are in fact doing their Muslim victims a favour by giving them a quick pass to heaven and its delights — the rewards without the struggles of martyrdom. School textbooks tell young Iranians to be ready for a final global struggle against an evil enemy, named as the U.S., and to prepare themselves for the privileges of martyrdom.

A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran. The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians — but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent — the threat of direct retaliation on Iran — is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision.

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time — Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long-awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the Prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Qur'an XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Ahmadinejad plans cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers (i.e., the infidel powers) wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead — hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bernard Lewis, professor emeritus at Princeton, is the author, most recently, of From Babel to Dragomans: Interpreting the Middle East (Oxford University Press, 2004).

Infinite_Loser · 08-14-2006, 10:16 PM

Well, that was rather interesting but I'm not too worried about August 22nd.

I wonder how many Muslims actually share the views as Ayatollah Khomeini (Among other radical leaders) and would be willing to wage an all out war against the western world?

Not many, I think.

samcol · 08-15-2006, 04:17 AM

I'm not worried either. Iran is 10 years away from developing nukes according to the CIA I believe. Then suddenly, in a few months he's ready to blow us or israel away. More fear mongering to grant Bush another pre-emptive strike is all this article is about. I really don't think Iran would give two shits about the US if we didn't already have him surrounded militarily while the neo-cons simultaneously beat the war drum. It's no wonder he's been talking so agressively lately.

If they really aren't afraid of mutually assured destruction, why the hell would we mess with them anyway when they have a million troops?

stevo · 08-15-2006, 02:48 PM

I was waiting for someone to bring this up. I would have but don't really have the time.

In addition, 8/22 this year also corresponds to the last time Jerusalem was conquered by Saladin.

Some are saying the latest terrorist attempts in Britain are a ploy to distract the west from Iran (if the attacks had happened they would have happened the 16th I think) as well as the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict.

Iran has been spouting for years about the destruction of Israel. Between that, their denial of any sort of regulation of their nuclear program, their "death-cult" mentality (which the author does a good job illustrating the fact that MAD is not a deturrant when it comes to islamofacism) I am wary of them.

They told the UN they have only 200 centrifuges. based on that, they won't have enought fissionable material for a nuclear bomb for about 10 years. But who is to say they don't have 2,000 or 20,000 centrifuges? How do we know they don't? We have no one on the ground in Iran telling us, Iran won't let inspectors in to see, how are we to know? We don't know one way or the other. I'm skeptical that Iran is going to nuke tel-aviv on 8/22, but I am not skeptical in the least that when (not if) Iran gets a nuke, or three, they will most definitely use them to usher in their own NWO. You know, the one where sharia law dominates and the infidels are slaughtered or everyone is dead and either a martyr or infidel. They are not scared to die in the least, that is why we should be wary of them.

google: august 22 Iran and see what comes up

----

Of course I wouldn't be the least bit suprised that when iran does nuke israel there will be no shortage of people claiming bush did it. (even if he's out of office at the time)

SirLance · 08-15-2006, 02:52 PM

I think the 8/22 event was the one Scotland Yard, acting on a tip from Pakistan, just foiled.

Elphaba · 08-15-2006, 04:51 PM

I saw this article at another politics forum and it was my first realization that all three Abrahamic religions share a similar apocalyptic belief. Is there any real difference between what was mentioned above and the Evangelical Christian's belief that we have reached the "end times" as they eagerly await the "rapture?" Please understand that I am not being disrepectful of those beliefs, I simply don't share them.

Given that our President considers the Evangelicals as critical members of his base, one should ponder the number of nukes under his control v. the possibility of nukes that Iran may have. I find that to be far more significant than a date conjured up from an ancient prophacy.

I have heard "the end is near" predictions since I was a child, and I consider August 22 as just another example of the same.

stevo · 08-16-2006, 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

I saw this article at another politics forum and it was my first realization that all three Abrahamic religions share a similar apocalyptic belief. Is there any real difference between what was mentioned above and the Evangelical Christian's belief that we have reached the "end times" as they eagerly await the "rapture?" Please understand that I am not being disrepectful of those beliefs, I simply don't share them.

I think with the shiites, the believe the 12th imam, muhammed al-mahdi, will return one day bringing justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world. Jesus will return soon after and fight evil with al-mahdi, smiting the christians, since they worship in a false religion. Shiites believe this will happen at a time of great global turmoil (I suppose christian fundys do too). Some say Ahmadinejad is trying to fan the flames of global chaos to help pave the way for the return of the 12th imam.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Given that our President considers the Evangelicals as critical members of his base, one should ponder the number of nukes under his control v. the possibility of nukes that Iran may have. I find that to be far more significant than a date conjured up from an ancient prophacy.

I think the major difference here is that while there have always been christian fundamentalists saying the end is near, I have yet to hear one preach that martydom is the ultimate sacrifice and all good christians should aspire to such. (perhaps some have, but I haven't heard it) The difference is, we have the president and Ayatollahs of Iran, telling their people to prepare for martydom, that no matter what comes from the apocalypse, whether a martyrs death or jihadist victory, they will be winners. They will either be righteous in heaven next to allah or they will be living on earth in a pearfect, peaceful, islamic world.

I have yet to hear a christian fundamentalist go on in the same fasion. What makes Iran scary is that it appears Ahmadinejad really does believe this, while what bush says and does is in response to his christian fundamentalist base. Ahmadinejad has no base, he was not elected by less than 12% of the population. He answers to the Ayatollahs, not his people. from what I know, the christian fundys want jesus to come so they can go to heaven. They don't want to blow themselves up to get there. The militant shiites are not afraid of death, if a nuclear bomb was dropped by iran on tel-aviv and the US and israel responded in kind by sending hundreds of nukes, they aren't afraid of that. They are willing to die and take as many people with them.

genuinegirly · 08-23-2006, 11:36 PM

The 22nd of August is over in California. No mass destruction yet, that I can see.

fastom · 08-23-2006, 11:55 PM

I think the mass destruction of California is an ongoing thing... sort of like those orange barrels on the highway.

Is it safe to come out of the bomb shelters now. August 22nd seemed too normal to me.

DEI37 · 08-26-2006, 07:29 PM

Apparently not. Today's the 26th, and life is normal.

Ch'i · 08-26-2006, 08:03 PM

I have had a problem with blisters & running since the 22 nd.... coincidence?

hotzot · 09-04-2006, 09:47 PM

I've had the mange since the 22nd.

08-14-2006, 07:13 PM	#1 (permalink)
darens42 Crazy Location: Dallas	Aug 22 - Something to be paranoid about? http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...l=968350060724 Beware Aug. 22 and Iran's apocalyptic view Aug. 12, 2006. 01:00 AM BERNARD LEWIS SPECIAL TO THE STAR During the Cold War, both sides possessed weapons of mass destruction, but neither side used them, deterred by what was known as MAD, mutual assured destruction. Similar constraints have no doubt prevented their use in the confrontation between India and Pakistan. In our own day a new such confrontation seems to be looming between a nuclear-armed Iran and its favourite enemies, named by the late Ayatollah Khomeini as the Great Satan and the Little Satan, i.e., the United States and Israel. Against the U.S. the bombs might be delivered by terrorists, a method having the advantage of bearing no return address. Against Israel, the target is small enough to attempt obliteration by direct bombardment. It seems increasingly likely that the Iranians either have or very soon will have nuclear weapons at their disposal. The language used by Iranian President Ahmadinejad seems to indicate the reality and the imminence of this threat. Would the same constraints, the same fear of mutual assured destruction, restrain a nuclear-armed Iran from using such weapons against the U.S. or against Israel? There is a radical difference between the Islamic Republic of Iran and other governments with nuclear weapons. This difference is expressed in what can only be described as the apocalyptic world view of Iran's present rulers. This world view and expectation clearly shape the perception and therefore the policies of Ahmadinejad and his disciples. Even in the past it was clear that terrorists claiming to act in the name of Islam had no compunction in slaughtering large numbers of fellow Muslims. A notable example was the blowing up of the American embassies in East Africa in 1998, killing a few American diplomats and a much larger number of uninvolved local passersby, many of them Muslims. The phrase "Allah will know his own" is usually used to explain such apparently callous unconcern; it means that while infidel, i.e., non-Muslim, victims will go to a well-deserved punishment in hell, Muslims will be sent straight to heaven. According to this view, bombers are in fact doing their Muslim victims a favour by giving them a quick pass to heaven and its delights — the rewards without the struggles of martyrdom. School textbooks tell young Iranians to be ready for a final global struggle against an evil enemy, named as the U.S., and to prepare themselves for the privileges of martyrdom. A direct attack on the U.S., though possible, is less likely in the immediate future. Israel is a nearer and easier target, and Ahmadinejad has given indication of thinking along these lines. The Western observer would immediately think of two possible deterrents. The first is that an attack that wipes out Israel would almost certainly wipe out the Palestinians too. The second is that such an attack would evoke a devastating reprisal from Israel against Iran. The first of these possible deterrents might well be of concern to the Palestinians — but not apparently to their fanatical champions in the Iranian government. The second deterrent — the threat of direct retaliation on Iran — is, as noted, already weakened by the suicide or martyrdom complex that plagues parts of the Islamic world today, without parallel in other religions, or for that matter in the Islamic past. This complex has become even more important at the present day, because of this new apocalyptic vision. In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time — Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long-awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the Prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Qur'an XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Ahmadinejad plans cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind. A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers (i.e., the infidel powers) wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours." In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead — hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement. How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bernard Lewis, professor emeritus at Princeton, is the author, most recently, of From Babel to Dragomans: Interpreting the Middle East (Oxford University Press, 2004). __________________ I'm not superstitious - it's bad luck to be superstitious

08-14-2006, 10:16 PM	#2 (permalink)
Infinite_Loser Junkie Location: Lake Mary, FL	Well, that was rather interesting but I'm not too worried about August 22nd. I wonder how many Muslims actually share the views as Ayatollah Khomeini (Among other radical leaders) and would be willing to wage an all out war against the western world? Not many, I think. __________________ I believe in equality; Everyone is equally inferior to me.

08-15-2006, 02:48 PM	#4 (permalink)
stevo Rail Baron Location: Tallyfla	I was waiting for someone to bring this up. I would have but don't really have the time. In addition, 8/22 this year also corresponds to the last time Jerusalem was conquered by Saladin. Some are saying the latest terrorist attempts in Britain are a ploy to distract the west from Iran (if the attacks had happened they would have happened the 16th I think) as well as the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict. Iran has been spouting for years about the destruction of Israel. Between that, their denial of any sort of regulation of their nuclear program, their "death-cult" mentality (which the author does a good job illustrating the fact that MAD is not a deturrant when it comes to islamofacism) I am wary of them. They told the UN they have only 200 centrifuges. based on that, they won't have enought fissionable material for a nuclear bomb for about 10 years. But who is to say they don't have 2,000 or 20,000 centrifuges? How do we know they don't? We have no one on the ground in Iran telling us, Iran won't let inspectors in to see, how are we to know? We don't know one way or the other. I'm skeptical that Iran is going to nuke tel-aviv on 8/22, but I am not skeptical in the least that when (not if) Iran gets a nuke, or three, they will most definitely use them to usher in their own NWO. You know, the one where sharia law dominates and the infidels are slaughtered or everyone is dead and either a martyr or infidel. They are not scared to die in the least, that is why we should be wary of them. google: august 22 Iran and see what comes up ---- Of course I wouldn't be the least bit suprised that when iran does nuke israel there will be no shortage of people claiming bush did it. (even if he's out of office at the time) __________________ "If I am such a genius why am I drunk, lost in the desert, with a bullet in my ass?" -Otto Mannkusser

08-15-2006, 02:52 PM	#5 (permalink)
SirLance Junkie Location: In the middle of the desert.	I think the 8/22 event was the one Scotland Yard, acting on a tip from Pakistan, just foiled. __________________ DEMOCRACY is where your vote counts, FEUDALISM is where your count votes.

08-23-2006, 11:36 PM	#8 (permalink)
genuinegirly Eat your vegetables Super Moderator Location: Arabidopsis-ville	The 22nd of August is over in California. No mass destruction yet, that I can see. __________________ "Sometimes I have to remember that things are brought to me for a reason, either for my own lessons or for the benefit of others." Cynthetiq "violence is no more or less real than non-violence." roachboy

08-15-2006, 04:17 AM	#3 (permalink)
samcol Junkie Location: Indiana	I'm not worried either. Iran is 10 years away from developing nukes according to the CIA I believe. Then suddenly, in a few months he's ready to blow us or israel away. More fear mongering to grant Bush another pre-emptive strike is all this article is about. I really don't think Iran would give two shits about the US if we didn't already have him surrounded militarily while the neo-cons simultaneously beat the war drum. It's no wonder he's been talking so agressively lately. If they really aren't afraid of mutually assured destruction, why the hell would we mess with them anyway when they have a million troops?

08-15-2006, 04:51 PM	#6 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	I saw this article at another politics forum and it was my first realization that all three Abrahamic religions share a similar apocalyptic belief. Is there any real difference between what was mentioned above and the Evangelical Christian's belief that we have reached the "end times" as they eagerly await the "rapture?" Please understand that I am not being disrepectful of those beliefs, I simply don't share them. Given that our President considers the Evangelicals as critical members of his base, one should ponder the number of nukes under his control v. the possibility of nukes that Iran may have. I find that to be far more significant than a date conjured up from an ancient prophacy. I have heard "the end is near" predictions since I was a child, and I consider August 22 as just another example of the same.

08-23-2006, 11:55 PM	#9 (permalink)
fastom Psycho Location: way out west	I think the mass destruction of California is an ongoing thing... sort of like those orange barrels on the highway. Is it safe to come out of the bomb shelters now. August 22nd seemed too normal to me.

08-26-2006, 07:29 PM	#10 (permalink)
DEI37 Go faster! Location: Wisconsin	Apparently not. Today's the 26th, and life is normal. __________________ Generally speaking, if you were to get what you really deserve, you might be unpleasantly surprised.

08-26-2006, 08:03 PM	#11 (permalink)
Ch'i Artist of Life	I have had a problem with blisters & running since the 22 nd.... coincidence?

09-04-2006, 09:47 PM	#12 (permalink)
hotzot We're having potato pancakes! Location: stalag 13	I've had the mange since the 22nd. __________________ The Bully Boys are here!