absence_of_color

I see this as a tremendous profit potential. Even though ethanol has been available for stock since the late 70s, its really catching on, and could very well be the next petroleum, and think about how far that idea went. Its caught the attention of world leaders and has been placed into legislatures, undergoing its transformation into answers for a lot of the worlds short supply of energy. Just not corn anymore either, scientists have designed a way to turn almost any organic matter - switchgrass, trees, ect., even animal and forest byproducts into fuel. A shortage of those common products is highly unlikely. How great is that?

I plan to invest. I just havent figured out which particular way yet. Any thoughts?

__________________
...absent of everything.

shakran

I wouldn't.

One day the public will wake up and realize the government and the ethanol industry has been snowing them. They'll see ethanol for the energy-negative fuel it is. They'll realize ethanol is actually driving fuel costs up, while consuming more energy to produce than you get out of it. And then they'll stop using it.

We've already seen this on a small scale in Iowa. The state gives big tax breaks (on top of the federal 51 cent/gallon blend tax credit), which usually keeps the E10 89 octane gas cheaper than the regular 87 octane gas. But when the price of ethanol went through the roof last month, making the 89 octane more expensive than the 87, Iowans switched right back to non-ethanol 87. That shows people aren't concerned about the (fake) environmental benefits of ethanol - they're just looking for the cheapest fuel. Once they figure out ethanol does not fit that bill, and in fact drives fuel prices up, they'll abandon it for the scam it is, and all the jillions of ethanol plants farmer co-ops are building across the midwest will go under. Investors will lose their shirts, and I wouldn't be surprised to see even bigger economic impacts across the corn belt.

absorbentishe

Save your money, you'll make more. Yes, it's trendy right now, but 2 years from now it won't be. There will be something else, and ethanol will go unused, and you out money. The potential seems great, but when it costs more to make the fuel, than what they sell it for, there's a problem. Put your money in a Roth IRA, and you'll be better served.

jimk

if you really want to....


http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,91,00.html


the CME and NYBOT list ethanol futures as well, but they don't do ANY volume. even at CBOT, a very illiquid contract.

perhaps the best bet would be to research some companies doing capital investment in ethanol production & buy a basket of the best-looking 5 or 6 you come up with.

__________________
raw power is a guaranteed o.d.

raw power is a laughin' at you & me

-iggy

absence_of_color

When hasn't the government been snowing the people, shakran?

Its very difficult for me to see ethanol as negative on any scale. I wouldnt understand how it is a trend that will pass when (1) no new gasoline refineries have been built in 30 years. Compare that with the U.S. ethanol industry which is building production facilities at nearly two per month! (2)Adding ethanol to american fuel has helped keep prices down during times of high demand. (3)Think about what the petroleum industry receives to protect, explore for, and transport oil from all across the world? The ethanol cost is nearly 10 times less! (4) Its excellent for the economy. It creates jobs and increases revenues; raises farm income and reduces farm program payments; and decreases the amount of energy we import, not to mention it adds $1.30 to the treasury for every gallon! The renewable fuel standard just had a federal energy bill passed incorporating 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol to be used in the us, compared to 3.4 used in 2004. (5) Taking care of our planet. Most ethanol plants produce LESS than 100 tons of pollutants compared to most power plants which emit almost 20,000 tons or more!

I dont think that it will lose interest either. The Wall Street Journal predicts that the ethanol demand will increase by 50% THIS YEAR ALONE!
By the end of this year, GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler AG will have 6 million flex-fuel vehicles on the road. Walmart is considering offering ethanol at its 383 gas stations.

I have to add that BILL GATES has put $84 million into Pacific Ethanol, Inc!

If I lose my shirt, at least I have some great tits to show off! Haha.

__________________
...absent of everything.

eribrav

I would love to be optimistic about ethanol as a fuel, but I must reluctantly agree with shakran. It may work great in Brazil, but it's not a solution for us in the US.

But that's not what the OP was asking about. He wants to make some moolah. Reluctantly, I have to say that's not going to work either. Why? Because the stock market is forward looking, and you needed to buy those stocks a year ago. Look at the charts. The stocks are now being distributed to retail i.e. suckers, after the big run up is long over. Another clue: Look at the garbage companies in the industry that have been able to come to market in the past few months. When poor quality companies can IPO just because the industry is hot, it's time to leave the sector.

What you need to find is the NEXT great idea, and get positioned before the idea gets championed on the Street. This idea's time has already come and gone.

rofgilead

I think that ethanol from corn is not an environmentally friendly idea - nor profitable without government subsidies. I would invest in biodiesel if diesel becomes popular in the US again tho..

Lindy

Fermenting these substances yields METHANOL, not ethanol. It is chemically different, poisonous, and much more corrosive. Its energy content is less than half that of gasoline. Also is less efficient to produce because of its much higher cellulose content--compared to corn, wheat, milo, and other grains. It might have potential (like in Brazil) but causes problems with engines not specifically designed and built to use methanol. Would be nice, though, to turn Kudzu and weeds into fuel.
Lindy
I had an uncle in Kansas who built his own still and ran farm equipment on a mixture of alcohol and deisel. This was 25 years ago, and he eventually decided that it was much more trouble than it was worth.

Willravel

Yeah, you're about 4 years late. Now would be a good time to invest in long term, low yeild stuff.

itch vaccine

Lindy :
Methanol? Are you sure? I thought you get biogas, which is methane.

__________________
"When you sit with a nice girl for two hours, it seems like two minutes.
When you sit on a hot stove for two minutes, it seems like two hours.
That's relativity."
- Albert Einstein

Lindy

You may be right. It's been a long time since chemistry class, but I think that maybe methanol (wood alcohol) is distilled from the methane, or from natural gas, which is mostly methane. I'll have to try and look it up. Mostly what I was getting at was that you don't get ethanol (grain alcohol) from woody stuff--you must use grain.
Lindy

shakran

So why would you want to invest in the scam?


Krispy Kreme almost went under because they expanded too fast. And their product is tasty, and desired by many people. The very fact that so many ethanol plants are going up at once should make you nervous.

No, it hasn't. Do your research. Adding ethanol to american fuel has required us to bypass the usual fuel infrastructure (pipelines) in favor of trucks because ethanol cannot be introduced into a pure-gas pipe. Because of this, costs for transporting ethanol have gone up. You must also take into consideration government subsidies. currently the federal government gives ethanol a $0.51 per gallon tax credit. There are more gimmes available from individual states. If I make a product that costs me $5 to make, but I sell it for $4 because the government gives me $2 for every copy, that's still not a viable product. If the subsidies dry up (they will) the industry will sink.

Would you care to cite sources on this, or is this just a wild-assed guess? Hint: If the source is the ethanol industry, that might not be a viable source.


Short term, yes it does. Once people stop buying it, those jobs will go away, and those who invested in the plants will find that the banks want the mortgage payment whether or not the plant is selling any fraud-juice.

So what? Why do you, as a private investor, give a crap if it raises farm income unless you're a farmer? Are you investing to make money, or to feel good about yourself?

[quote]decreases the amount of energy we import, [/qutoe]

Source?


Where are you getting that?

And the President just murdered millions of people by denying medical science the ability to research their diseases. not all legislation is a good thing.

that's comparing apples to aardvarks. Power plants do not generally fuel cars. Ethanol plants do. ethanol releases fewer of some pollutants, and more of others, while wasting a crapload of energy to make it. It is a non-workable fuel, at least with current technology.



And back to my previous example, everyone predicted Krispy Kreme would kick serious ass cross-country by opening so many stores so fast. And why shouldn't they? They make a delicious product. People stand in line for hours when a new store opens. They're the only fast-food donut store with a freakin' FACTORY in every store to keep up with demand. This should have been a solid gold investment opportunity. Instead the company damn near went under, against all predictions. It's slowly recovering now, but it was a very near thing for awhile. Predictions can be wrong, especially when there are unconsidered factors (such as the dirty little secret that ethanol is a scam).


1) That's like you or me putting fifty cents into Pacific Ethanol.

2) He's a computer nerd. He's not a fuel expert.

3) Even rich guys can lose big. Remember when Bill lost over forty BILLION dollars when MS stock fell?



Bottom line? Invest if you want. But you're taking a big risk, and I think you'll lose more than just your shirt.

absence_of_color

I was talking about the govenrment in general. A joke.

I cant imagine that people that have the money and will to choose one of many options, would end up building an ethanol facility, (which most are locally owned and operated), without having strong confidence in its success. Id say these people have done extensive research on the pros and cons with committees and boards dedicated to the subject. Of course, nothing is certain. This i am aware of.

As it is, yes, but in time, inefficiencies could and may be cleared up, as with any product ever marketed.

Neutral investment research. Many newspaper articles. And yes, even a few ethanol industry based organizations.
But as for my personal, wild-assed guess, I am an american, and if your suggesting that making and using a product like ethanol on the homefront is more expensive than the cost of our precious oil, its absolutely ridiculous.
For a very long time, armies, countries, governments, ect. all over the world, since petroleum has been discovered and used, have fought over the control of petroleum producing land. Hasnt there been, and presently ongoing, very MANY fiscal "military operations", to secure the united states' position in the middle east, as with other countries? The governments sure as hell arent doing it because they "just want to help". Its mainly all over oil, with an exception of a few obligating prior commitments. It will never stop as long as there is a petroleum crisis. If ethanol is more expensive than all that, ill eat my hat!!


I am looking to invest to make money, but unlike most, I would like to invest in something that is good all around, not to make a quick buck without thought to anything else. I do care about the farmers, if this goes through, and it continues to raise farm income, it will also put interest back into farming, which is at a low. Agriculture makes life possible!


Irrelavant. The original post was about the investment potential.


No, not yet, but it could be possible in the future.
But to say how environmentally positive it is, it was just a point in general.
A nonworkable fuel? I agree that its not the perfect solution and definately has its quirks to be worked out, but non working? Its like you have stamped the entire idea as a failure.

Talk about comparing apples to aardvarks. The success of a donut compared to an alternative fuel..


Rich computer nerds dont get that way by throwing away money, they hire expert financial advisors and the best of the best fuel experts to do the research for them.
And to mention, a LOT of other investors took his lead, but I suppose they like to just throw their money away, too?


A few good read articles:
http://www.mda.state.mn.us/ethanol/balance.html
http://news.mongabay.com/2006/0126-ethanol.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...072101205.html

As far as investing in it, points stated here by everyone makes me want to research more into the subject as a whole. I will take everyones opinion into consideration. Thank you!
And for the personal opinion, I like it. I hope its here to stay. Anything good for the environment is pro to me, being that I am a liberal concerning earths issues.



"That said, the cynics also miss the point. Doing nothing solves nothing. These may be incremental and extremely partial solutions, but they are steps in the right direction. The Earth's fossil fuel budget is a finite amount, no matter how you stretch it. One day it will be done. The fact that our entire global technological infrastructure is based on a proven finite resource means there is an eventual expiration date on our industrialized society, unless some alternative source is found"- anonymous

__________________
...absent of everything.

shakran

These local investors are mostly farmers. They have a big problem - they grow way too much corn. The government subsidizes them NOT to grow corn, but they'd rather grow corn and make money off of it. Trouble is, even though they've managed to infiltrate the ENTIRE food supply with it (I challenge you to find 10 processed food items at the grocery store that do not have some form of corn in them) it's still selling far too cheaply for their taste. So they're looking to invent a new market for it, and ethanol shows promise in making them money.

First off the price of corn will rise because corn that used to go into making high-fructose corn syrup and other corn additives is now being sold to the ethanol plant. And since they own part of the ethanol plant they're also getting money for the ethanol the plant produces.

The local investors have enacted a 20 year snowjob campaign trying to convince the American public that corn-derived ethanol is good for the environment and will make gas cost less.

Unfortunately for them, no one cared for most of that time because with gas at 80 cents a gallon or so, we didn't need cheaper gas.

Now that we'd like to have cheaper gas, people are searching for any solution, and they're willing to listen to promises of cheaper fuel. This would be great if those promises had a prayer of coming true.


And that's exactly my point. Sure, maybe some time way in the future we'll figure out how to make ethanol without using more energy than we get out of the final product. Hell maybe we'll figure out how to build a cold-fusion plant too. Maybe. If and when the day comes that we can get more energy out of a corn cob than we put into it, I'll be its most fervent supporter.

But that day is not here, and so far there aren't any signs that it will be here any time soon. I have defiinte issues with forcing a fuel that does not work and has no promise of working in the near future on the American public.

If you invest in this fuel you are taking the gamble that the ethanol industry will figure out how to make it a legitimate fuel BEFORE the public realizes it is not a legitimate fuel and abandons it. If the public figures this situation out before the science can catch up, then the science won't have the funding to catch up, and you'll lose your investment.




It's more *energy* expensive. If you use more energy to produce a fuel than you get out of the fuel, you are wasting your effort. You may as well take the energy used to make the fuel, and run the cars off of that. It simply does not make sense, from an environmental AND economic point of view, to produce ethanol at this time.



And ethanol isn't going to stop it either. We would require more than the entire United States' land to make enough corn to produce the ethanol required to fuel the country's fleet of cars. Clearly this is not workable so if we rely on ethanol we will still have to rely on oil.

Want some barbecue sauce with that?





And agriculture is a huge boondoggle in this country. We pay our farmers NOT to grow things. That's asinine. It clearly points to the idea that we don't need as many farmers as we have. Any other industry, you'd have the extra workers looking for jobs in another field of work, but for some reason that's considered terrible for farmers to have to do.


Great! When it's possible, come find me and I'll invest with you.


It IS a failure. They're marketing it as the answer to the oil crisis. They're not saying "maybe in the distant future if and when we've figured a bunch of stuff out that we have no clue about yet, it'll be the answer." They're saying it's THE answer. So not only is it, currently, a failure, it's also a big lie.




Actually I was comparing one industry's overrapid expansion to another industry's overrapid expansion.




You're proving my point for me. If the earth's fossil fuel supply is finite (it is) then it is rather stupid to waste it making a fuel that gives us less energy than using the fossil fuels in the first place would. If we'd just fuel the cars off gas until either we made ethanol workable OR we found a whole new method of propulsion, we'd make the oil stretch longer, giving us even more time to solve the problem. What we're doing right now is just making the end come faster.


If you want a real solution you have to look into REAL renewable energy. Wind, solar, hydroelectric. Get a bunch of electric cars with solar panels, that can plug into the wall of your wind/hydro powered house for those cloudy days, and you have a REAL renewable energy source that doesn't pollute (execept in the initial manufacture of the energy collection devices) and will not be extinguished until the death of the sun.

Wouldn't it be better to concentrate our efforts toward that goal than to concentrate on making yet another hydrocarbon fuel that pollutes and isn't even as efficient as the original hydrocarbon fuel?

fik

Ethanol is never going to replace our need for oil. However, It can lessen our dependence of imported oil from unstable parts of the world. We (U.S) import 17% of our imported oil from the middle-east, YIKES.
Read about the risks here
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Fea...ity/bg1926.cfm

When (not if) sh!t hits the fan with Middle East oil imports. The demand to fill that gap will be great, getting more oil from other sources will be difficult.
There is an alternative to fill the gap...ethanol. It doesn't require a drastic change in infrastructure. It blends easily with gasoline. All cars post 1988 are made to handle a 10% ethanol blend and perhaps a 20% blend. Don't forget about the 6 million E85 (85% Ethonal blend) capable vehicles on the road.

Ethanol demand will skyrocket, There will be a huge increase in production of ethanol and refineries. This will drive the market through the roof. Early investors will become quite wealthy.



Heres a small tidbit about refining Ethanol compared to Gasoline.
Gasoline distillation from petroleum must reach a tempature of 720 degrees F.
Ethanol distillation never gets above 212 degrees F the boiling point of water. It takes almost 3 times more energy to refine Gasoline. It takes 1 BTU of energy to produce 1 BTU's worth of Gasoline, thats just to refine it...

What fuel is normally used to produce all that heat? Coal and Natural Gas are used for both.

cybersharp

I second this.

__________________
0PtIcAl

MINCKEN

Below in orange is industrial ethanol. In yellow is the POLITICALY mandated ethanol. SAME PRODUCT.


The preferred feedstock for INDUSTRIAL ethanol is methane gas. Comes out of coalmines. Comes out of the ground. Comes off garbage dumps. Comes off of anaerobic decomp of sewage.


The Preferred feedstock for TAX SUPPORTED ethanol is corn. In order to get this……….you would not believe the amount of taxes, tractor exhaust, acreage tax relief. An artificial product, an artificial price, subsidized by the tax payer.


Oh yes, price! Corn mash, $2.20 / gallon. Industrial? $0.70 $0.90


Reaction of Ethene with Steam
Most of the ethanol used in industry is made, not by alcoholic fermentation, but by an addition reaction between ethene and steam.

C2H4 + H2O ==> C2H5OH
Ethene Steam Ethanol Alcoholic Fermentation
· A solution of sucrose, to which yeast is added, is heated. An enzyme, invertase, which is present in yeast is added and this acts as a catalyst to convert the sucrose into glucose and fructose.,
·
· invertase
· C12H22O11 + H2O ==> C6H12O6 + C6H12O6
· Sucrose Glucose Fructose
· The glucose, C6H12O6, and fructose, C6H12O6, formed are then converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide by another enzyme, zymase, which is also present in yeast.
·
· zymase
· C6H12O6 ==> 2C2H5OH + 2CO2
· Ethanol
The fermentation process takes three days and is carried out at a temperature between 250C and 300C. The ethanol is then obtained by fractional distillation.
BULLSHIT? I will walk you and your congressional thief through, from natural gas to ethanol and show the books!

If there is really anyone that wants to know, send me a whatever and I’ll get back…

If the King's English was good enough for Jesus, it's good enough for me!FERGUSON


Below in orange is industrial ethanol. In yellow is the POLITICALY mandated ethanol. SAME PRODUCT.


The preferred feedstock for INDUSTRIAL ethanol is methane gas. Comes out of coalmines. Comes out of the ground. Comes off garbage dumps. Comes off of anaerobic decomp of sewage.


The Preferred feedstock for TAX SUPPORTED ethanol is corn. In order to get this……….you would not believe the amount of taxes, tractor exhaust, acreage tax relief. An artificial product, an artificial price, subsidized by the tax payer.


Oh yes, price! Corn mash, $2.20 / gallon. Industrial? $0.70 $0.90


Reaction of Ethene with Steam
Most of the ethanol used in industry is made, not by alcoholic fermentation, but by an addition reaction between ethene and steam.

C2H4 + H2O ==> C2H5OH
Ethene Steam Ethanol


Alcoholic Fermentation
· A solution of sucrose, to which yeast is added, is heated. An enzyme, invertase, which is present in yeast is added and this acts as a catalyst to convert the sucrose into glucose and fructose.,
·
· invertase
· C12H22O11 + H2O ==> C6H12O6 + C6H12O6
· Sucrose Glucose Fructose
· The glucose, C6H12O6, and fructose, C6H12O6, formed are then converted into ethanol and carbon dioxide by another enzyme, zymase, which is also present in yeast.
·
· zymase
· C6H12O6 ==> 2C2H5OH + 2CO2
· Ethanol
The fermentation process takes three days and is carried out at a temperature between 250C and 300C. The ethanol is then obtained by fractional distillation.

BULLSHIT? I will walk you and your congressional thief through, from natural gas to ethanol and show the books!

If there is really anyone that wants to know, send me a whatever and I’ll get back…

[SIZE="4"]If the King's English was good enough for Jesus, it's good enough for me![/SIZE]FERGUSON

shakran

Your perspective is interesting, but I think you'd get better results if it didn't look quite so much like a ransom note

Ch'i

Solar power research companies in Australia. You'll see.

As terrible as this sounds, invest in companies that initiate reconstruction after natural disasters.

Plaid13

Investing in any new fuel sorce is a bad idea. if they get too big and start to put a dent into the profits of the oil companys they will get bought out by the oil companys and closed down and put out of buisness or just flat run into the ground. your better off investing in gas companys.