Ustwo

I keep hearing how bad the economy is or will be or whatever but outside of people turning the housing market into the next ponzi scheme I am having a hard time seeing this happening in a major way.

My reasoning is simple, anecdotal, but was right for the last 'recession' too.

People are still shopping, and shopping like its going out of style in pretty much the entire Chicago area. I'm waiting in lines worse than xmass from Costco to Best Buy, Stein Mart, Borders, to Tiger Direct.

Now I'm not an economic wizard, its a section of my education I have only basic knowledge of, but I'm just wondering whats so 'bad'.

Unemployment is still very low, interest rates are low, yea some people who never should have had some homes will lose them but I just don't see where this looming danger is.

I'm thinking economists job is to make predictions and repeat them enough that people react to them as if they were true, making them in fact come true.

So those of you who are into this sort of thing, enlighten me, whats the problem exactly?

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Charlatan

The only thing that can be bad about that kind of shopping is if it's done on credit that can't be paid back.

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Plan9

... because WASPy upper middle class Chicago is a perfect representation of the entire United States, including the poverty-stricken south and the especially FUBAR'd housing issues of the east middle coast.

...

"Big city... big city nights..."

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Ustwo

Yea I mean its only like 4 million or so people here, and I only work in 3 very different neighborhoods.

The Costco was about 1/2 immigrant, Hispanic or otherwise.

But thanks for playing.

Agreed, and obviously I have no idea, but honestly its been crazy here. Its been this way for the last month or so, I've had to do a lot of diverse and budget oriented shopping for my new office. Discount furniture store in a blue collar area to electronics, all have been jammed.

This is a serious question, not a political one, I have a major investment going in this new location, so I'd like to know what I'm in for, so far I haven't seen any major slow downs.

The only businesses who I know have had issues are some restaurants but that seems to have been weather related, we got more snow in Chicago this year than in quite a long time.

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Plan9

This just in: One Cost-Co makes a nation.

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Ustwo

an·ec·dot·al

2. Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis:

Thanks for that update, I'm sure I didn't mention that in the original post.

But I was looking for someone with some knowledge of the subject, not someone looking to argue with one liners. If I wanted that I'd have posted in politics, as I don't personally know.

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Charlatan

I wouldn't use the success or failure of restaurants to be an indicator of economic hardiness... The success or failure of restaurants often has little to do with the ability of people to pay for the food and everything to do with mismanagement.

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Ustwo

True, and I'm not using them directly. Though they are packed as well and people going out to eat and willing to wait in line for it can't be financially in trouble, unless they are idiots.

I've known restaurants themselves that were very busy and closed due to poor management (read the employees were robbing the owners blind).

I do know a couple of restaurant owners who were complaining about last month but they both blamed the weather.

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Baraka_Guru

This has something to do with it:
U.S. savings rate hits lowest level since 1933: Consumers depleting savings to buy cars, other big-ticket items

Trend analysis indicates that Americans are now, on average, spending more than they earn. Canadians aren't much better off. This can't continue indefinitely, and the longer it goes on, the harder the shit will hit the fan.

Compound the problem with the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the likelihood of a recession, this could very well be a recipe for disaster. But, on the positive side of things, Americans are well known to be resilient in bad times. This will be no hell in a hand basket, nor doom and gloom. Bad times maybe.

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Cynthetiq

Baraka, I'll agree that many countries are living in an extended credit euphoria.

Iceland, Canada, UK, US, Germany, are ones that I read about stating the same things. Large debt loads exceeding income.

I agree that I see many people still shopping in Times Square and SoHo. People walking around with shiny new bags full of new items that weren't just $20.

Restaurants are full of people, bars are full of people.

But this is NYC, so I'm not quite sure what to make of it since I've always seen people shopping here since 1991.

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Ustwo

But why is a recession likely?

Saying something is cyclical is fine and good, a lot of things are, but saying that doesn't explain WHY just that you know they come and go in a cycle. I've heard this in relation to the economy but why should we expect a recession beyond we tend to get them now and then?

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Willravel

I was under the impression that the economy gets bad when the Canadian Dollar is worth more than the USD when the Canadian Dollar hasn't really changed in worth for a while.

Baraka_Guru

This is an excellent question. I'm no economist, but I'll give this a try.

The cyclical thing is a big one. Most people are either ignorant of long cycles, or they think they can go about their merry way and not worry about them. There is little we can do about them as consumers, so it's a matter of knowing what's happening and acting accordingly.

The other factors, I think, are related directly to consumer spending and investor strategies. When you have things like negative equity outcomes from far too many sub-prime mortgages, people will suddenly find themselves in bad situations and they will slow their spending. Same goes for those who rack up too much credit and find their interest payments are now wiping out their disposable income. This also slows spending. When you get factors like these during a bear-market economy, you have investors getting burned as well. They too become more defensive and park things in safer places (like cash) or they simply lose money in the markets.

All of these factors exacerbate the problems of an already existing recession. In recessions, you need people to spend money. If they don't have any to spend, you're economy goes through fits and starts, if not unpleasant heaves.

When consumer confidence plummets, markets get jittery. It's a domino effect. People lose jobs, and things just keep spiraling. This is why you find some governments spending a lot of money at this time, to keep the cash flowing somehow as they weather the storm.

Yeah, Canadian Dollar looks good because of the shaky American Dollar, plus such things as high oil prices and a somewhat stable economy (i.e. job rate is good). But we should expect repercussions from the American economy hitting the rough patches.

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Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
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Elphaba

I'm "into this sort of thing" and can only rely on the economic experts to inform me. The current head of the Federal Reserve has come into line with those economists that have weighed the various factors that effect our economy and he has predicted a continued downturn.

Bush's "stimulus" package simply pumps more cash via debt into the economy with the cynical hope that the full crash is forestalled until 2009. Those damned "tax and spend" Democrats will get the blame among the population that have a five minute attention span.

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Baraka_Guru

I wonder how much of the current economic state can be directly attributed to Bush's strategy of continuing tax cuts while waging a war.

Tax and spend is one thing, but cut and spend? Hmm.... I wonder if this is worse than "cut and run."

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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
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Tully Mars

IMO, Because we spend more then we make. Both personally and as an nation. We've become a Visa society and the interest payments alone are weighing us down. The US government has taken to borrowing every time it needs a cash infusion, this latest boaster package is a prime example. Need money, tap that Visa, government needs cash call up China. We're leaving a mess for our kids in the hopes they're smarter then us. My guess is they are, but then again it wouldn't take much for that.

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jbw97361

I really wonder why the hell the dollar has to be worth more than any other currency in the world. A weak dollar means we will be importing less (foreign goods cost more) and exporting more (our stuff if cheaper).

Haven't the people in charge been screaming about the loss of manufacturing (or any) jobs to overseas competitors? I say let the dollar continue its slide and maybe our goods will be competitive with the Chinese crap soon enough.

The only person I can see being hurt by a weak dollar are people mailing money overseas to support relatives and currency traders.

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Cynthetiq

When we buy raw materials from other countries, suddenly our costs go up for no reason but the fact that the currency devalued.

So if I buy items from a UK manufacturer who manufactures a part I need for £0.50, which is equal to $1, and tomorrow that changes to £0.25 for $1, the cost goes up 100% for no reason overnight, thus I can only buy 50% of the same amount of goods and can only produce 50% of the same amount of product with the same $1 of capital.

I don't know what products you are buying becuase there aren't many that I can buy that say on them "Made in the USA." Many are made in China, Mexico, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, and Philippines.

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Tully Mars

That would be a great point if this were 1965 and the US was still in the export business. It isn't and we're not.

Who are these people in charge and what are they in charge of?

You seriously think the US can compete with China in the labor market? Exactly how many hours a week are you willing to work? And how cheaply are you willing to do that?

So if we are in trouble it's the fault of immigrants?

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Ustwo

Well it didn't take long to turn semi-political, but I'm still wondering if anyone has an answer.

Its not Bush's fault any more than the 2000 issue was Clinton's fault. The government can screw up the economy by making it harder to do business but a tax cut etc is not going to be causing an economic down turn.

Really I think we are dealing with some self fulfilling prophecies at this point.

Economist sees minor downturn or price increase in some index. Economist tells everyone this is a sign of a recession. Other economists say the same thing. People trust the economists and start to act as if it were a recession. Consumer confidence goes down, people spend less, and we have a recession.

Now there are some things that worry me, biofuels are consuming a lot of grain which in turn are increasing food prices, the weak dollar helps on some ends and hurts on others, I'm not sure what to make of the debt issues people are taking on, and while I think the subprime issues are being blown of out proportion they still don't help.

But those are just my casual observations, what I can't get is anything beyond 'trust the economists'. Why? I'm thinking its like trusting the weather man, only in this case by talking about a bad/good economy they can influence it.

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Willravel

This is really simple: we consume a shit ton and don't actually produce a lot compared to our consumption. The only thing we have going for us is massively strong currency. A weak dollar means that we lose that consumption. We die.

ratbastid

A weak dollar is weak for a reason.

Very few people understand the hows and whys of the Foreign Exchange Market. I've dabbled in it--online Forex trading companies set you up with "pretend money" accounts for free, and I've lost a pretend fortune trading the Forex. So I'm no good at it, but I understand in principle how it works.

The Foreign Exchange Market is a market, just like the stock market. Just like the buying and selling activity on say MSFT on the NYSE sets Microsoft's share price, so the buying and selling activity on say USD/CAN on the Forex sets the price of the US Dollar in terms of Canadian Dollar.

The dollar loses value against other currencies (and it's ALWAYS measured in terms of another currency. There can't be an arbitrarily weak currency in a vacuum.) when traders are actively selling and the currency pair is bearish--trending down.

Currency traders do this for a living--they're constantly studying economic indicators and trends, and their WHOLE JOB is to be ahead of economic and market moves. I trust them a lot more than some economist sitting in an office or rearing his head on MSNBC. And currency traders are communicating by way of the price they're setting on USD/* that the US economy is in sorry shape and likely to head sorrier.

vanblah

Biofuels aren't the only reason for increasing food prices; and if we'd stop using corn it would make a big difference (switchgrass is one solution; but I'm no fan of biofuels as a longterm solution).

The price of gas itself is causing food prices to go up. Just getting it to you costs more. That and the fact that we import a LOT of our produce (especially during off-season) and while the dollar is weak the imports cost more.

I'm sort of with you on the whole "recession" thing ... a lot of it is sensationalized. It's no big surprise when people say the dollar is weak; or the housing market is screwed; or that the national debt is high. But everyone wants to be the "first" to tell us about a recession. Your comparison to weather forecasters is appropriate.

Charlatan

The price of oil is greatly effecting the cost of food. Oil is involved in the whole process, from the fertilizers, tractors and shipping of raw goods (largely corn and soy) to the processing, delivery and packaging.

The food chain in America is made of three main ingredients: corn, soy and petroleum (and that includes the meat too).

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Tully Mars

For the most part- in the US 'if you bought it a truck brought it."

Trucks run on diesel which is made from oil. Oil prices effect everything.

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clavus

UStwo, first of all let me say that it's a bummer that you asked a legit question and you got a lot of political puffery for an answer. I'm no expert, but I'll take a shot.

Banks and institutional investors are suddenly facing giant losses. They money they thought they had is simply not there. They had a lot of capital in very safe sounding, very complicated, very sketchy real estate deals.

These banks are the ones who loan money and grease the wheels of capitalism. With less money to lend, and more fear about lending it, credit tightens. Businesses suffer. Employees lose jobs and buying power. The cycle feeds on itself.

Also, the cost of fuel is affecting nearly every aspect of the economy. Simply put, it costs more to make stuff and move stuff. That money has to go somewhere, and it is concentrated in a very narrow part of the economy - energy companies. So when you buy a widget, it costs more, the widget maker probably makes less (because he doesn't pass on all his increase to you). The money goes to a hand full of energy companies, who are investing the money in the economies of a other nations as they grow their business abroad.

Further, the country, as a whole spends more than it makes. We send $$ out of the country to import things that lose value. Given the the shrinking value of the dollar, we are emptying our nation of wealth at an accelerated pace.

From where I sit, things don't look great. At my former job, our small company fired 100% of the employees in December. My wife works for a large, healthy company, and they are shedding hundreds of US jobs.

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vanblah

Hmmm ... I don't see a "lot" of political puffery. I see several answers that pretty much say the same thing you did.

Tully Mars

I'm lost on the political answers comments. I guess if noting the government took "this" action and that's causing "this" is political, I guess. But what the government does has an effect on the economy. The economy was in the crapper during the Carter Admin, don't think you could have made logical comments regarding it then without mentioning the government policies that effected it. I don't see how you can discuss the economy with out discussing the government.

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clavus

OK, so it wasn't a LOT of puffery.

Take a look at three basic commodities in my life - beer, donuts and gasoline. All three have increased pretty substantially in price. Now look at my income. It stayed flat before it fell off the cliff.

So if I wanted to keep consuming beer, donuts and gasoline at the same rate, I would have to spend less elsewhere (not gonna happen) or incur debt (through a home equity loan or credit card debt - both bad).

I know for a fact that the baker is making less money these days. And the small breweries I fancy are making less money. Eventually something has got to give.

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vanblah

Too bad beer-nuts aren't a combination of two of those commodities. But if you could figure out how to make your own beer and donuts using wind power then you could cut out the gas.

I'm sure there is a "beans" joke in there somewhere.

inkriminator

I've read through the comments; my take on the question is a little different.

The original poster seems to think that the economy isn't bad because his local economy, from his limited experience, appears to be doing well.

Well, the economy as a WHOLE is doing poorly. The indicators for this are inflation increasing at a high rate...resulting in lowered real wages. Furthermore, GDP growth is decreasing to low levels.

Inflation + small GDP growth = Stagflation.

I can't be arsed at the moment to look up sources for these indicators, but google, as always, is your friend, and now you have an idea of what those economists are talking about.

Also, you seem to think that the sub-prime loan issue only has an effect on people who bought houses they couldn't afford. Not quite true, those Mortgages are used as collateral by banks and the huge hit the credit markets have taken by the collapse has caused them to be more wary of giving out loans which will further slow growth.

My personal take is that the reliance of modern economy on Credit issuance is THE primary cause of the cyclical nature of our economy. I'd prefer that we'd have a more stable system, but that's not likely to happen any time soon.

thingstodo

When does the economy get bad? Just look over your shoulder. It's been sneaking up on us for quite some time. It really began getting worse when we started dumping money in Iraq. then the oil prices began creaping up. Now independent truckers are saying they'll have to fold.

It's a slow steady thing that has been happening and you can't even see it. Things look OK because everyone is still eating out and driving SUVs but they're living on credit and one day the walls will come crashing down. that's what happened to housing. Everyone was living on cheap loans and then the rates came due. No one had the money to pay or refinance, they lost their homes, supply and demand took over the market, home values fell and more couldn't afford their higher rates and their homes couldn't be refinanced. And here we are.

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Baraka_Guru

When does the economy get bad? When banks start losing money, for one.

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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
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thingstodo

Well put!!

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tisonlyi

The Euro is a major, perhaps the major, contributing factor to the downfall of the Dollar.

After the initial attempts to grind the currency out of existence - as all the individual currencies were much easier to create runs on and thus large profits for forex traders - it's value has increased dramatically, year on year, since it's lows of roughly 1e = $0.80 in 2000 and, as this graph from yahoo shows, over the past 5 years there has been a steady fall in the value of the dollar vs euro down to the current rates in the region of 1e = $1.55.

The graph demonstrates that we're right on trend at this moment for a line of best fit, start to finish of that 5 year period. extend it back, and the trend suggests the dollar should be even weaker than it is currently.

Reserve currency.

If you follow that link you can see that world governments, financial institutions and markets need to keep vast stores of currency for a variety of reasons, and the currency on the top of the wishlist since the end of WW2 has been the Dollar.

The preference for the dollar has given the US tremendous economic leverage over other nations, preferential rates for dollar denominated credit, and marginally preferential rates on the purchase of commodities.

This story: The Financial Times, reporting the relegation of the dollar into 2nd places as the world's preferred currency from December 2007, and the subsequent rise in the strength of the Euro, is a symptom of the enormous problem that the dollar has.

But why is it the Euro that is the cause of this dramatic depreciation in the Dollar?

The Euro, at it's inception and the monetary fusion of 12 countries (now officially 13, but there are several other currencies to all intents and purposes pegged to the Euro and likely to be sucked in 'soon'), had a total value in close proximity to the dollar. This made it an extremely attractive choice as a reserve currency, given the difficulty markets have in gaming such largely held and used currencies - though they tried their best to kill it in 2000, came close, but failed.

So suddenly, we have a currency of equal strength with the Dollar. For nations who aren't 100% convinced that US hegemony over resources, credit, world monetary policy, etc... The move away from the Dollar seems logical, and indeed this is what we see:

Iran - trading in Euros, mainly, with the following nation the major customer.
China
- "If China attempted to diversify its holdings, it could cause a collapse in the value of the Dollar and higher inflation in the US.

That would also lower the value of China's own reserve assets - so China is only slowly moving out of Dollars and into other currencies such as the Euro. "

The key point to take from this, and you can google to find plenty of supporting evidence, is that China is heavily exposed in it's VAST currency reserves to the Dollar. They are righting that imbalance towards an undisclosed aim, in a managed, controlled and predictable fashion as any central bank, financial institution or other interested party would.

Selling Dollars, buying Euros (and a minority of others).

Now look at the image of relative percentages of reserve currencies held in central banks and other interested institutions again(albeit from wikipedia, but it's easy to locate):



The fluctuations in the Dollar and Euro are in clear, undeniable opposition.

The trends seem to corroborate the position of the Chinese - the biggest dogs in this fight - and other central banks and institutions delicately, slowly selling off dollars to buy Euros, with the thought not to provoke a global panic and crashing of the Dollar.

So, the demand for dollars is decreasing all the while as they are being sold, on trend.

What happens to a commodity, any commodity, for which the amount of supply to the market increases as the demand decreases in synchronous opposition? What if this is planned? What happens in a market when it is known that the value of that commodity is going to drop?

Add into this mix, a sudden glut of the commodity that is being undermined.

Fed auctions $200bn, $50bn more, $30bn more and and and...

The total value held in dollars is not increased when you pump in more greenbacks, hence the value of each dollar decreases further and faster than it was already decreasing due to restructuring of reserve and commodity markets in the new reality of the Euro and over dependence internationally on the Dollar.

Bonfire, allow me to introduce gasoline.
- "in the meantime, pension funds and hedge funds are betting on higher commodities prices."

Why? They know that the value of the dollar is heading down still further, it must, for a considerable time to come, so naturally, the prices of commodities denominated in dollars will rise commensurate.

All of this takes time to filter into the economy and for people to truly feel it and then react to it. The overshoot, Wile E Cayote(?) running in the air til he looks down, effect among others.

For the future history of implications, I suggest you look up the history of Sterling in the 20th century.

This Daily Telegraph article is a good, quick overview... Though with distinct right-wing bias.

The old, OLD empires strike back.

Point? It's going to get rough in the US over time.

China's rise will accelerate, Europe's "soft power" will increase in it's sphere and India? I have no clue. Rogue element.

Expect the Dollar to decrease over any given 3-5yr period going forward, to it's ultimate collapse.

Buy Gold, Ameros and Euros

I still don't think the rest of the world will allow the Dollar to crash, it would be an unpresidented economic disaster, but these sorts of things could precipitate an unexpected collapse...

BTW, The Daily Telegraph is a very, very right wing newspaper in the UK.

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pocon1

nothing to say

Wyodiver33

From MSNBC: (Not really, I wrote it.)

Keith Olbermann: "Mr. President, are you worried about the economy at all? I mean, even Alan Greenspan is a bit worried at this point. And he doesn't even run the FED anymore."

"Nothing to look at here, Keith, all is well. Greenspan isn't from Texas, and we all know what that means, right? Look, here's your $300 Tax-Stimulus Hokum. Buy a DVD player. It's all going to be ok. Really. Just don't bother yourselves with this stuff. It's way too complimacated for you normal-folk to understand. Trust us, we are here to help you. Let us jobinate this, ok? I'm a decider and a war-time presidente! Ha ha, My brother Jeb speaks Spanglish, he taught me how to say president in Spanglish. Seriously, though, just watch a movie on your new DVD player. It's shiny, right? Sleep well. You will need the rest. I'll be in Crawford, Texas, learning how to pronounciate "nuclear," for a few weeks. My advisors keep bugging me about that. Every day, Mr President, it's pronounced this way.....Blah blah blah. I hope someday it's a big Texas-sized deal! That will teach them. I miss Crawford. I miss my donkeys, and Dick is feeling the need to shoot something, know what I mean? He He He. Wait....Hold on Keith....What? Somebody farted in Iran?!? Get me the Joint Chiefs! We got some killin' to do! Condi! Get off of the damned toilet! Yee haw! Gotta go, Keith." (click)

Olbermann: "Mr President? Um, hello? Folks, I guess he had to go. Oh well. We're all fucked. Let's dance!"

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Shauk

so this euro thing has me intrigued.. is this something I should buy in to?

basically the unemployment rate went up another half percent today and now 1.97(ish) dollars are needed to = 1 GBP (back when I started buying records and such overseas, it was like 1.3, it's gone plain retarded now)

Tully Mars

I switched about 50% of my stuff into funds that are Euro based a little over a year ago now. Honestly it's one the reason I'm still afloat. Well that and my living expenses are really low.

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Alta

I have read the posts, and can only offer one comment from StatsCan. It said in the paper yesterday that although the average debt load had gone up, that the net worth on average had gone up more. They said that the debt to net worth ratio was actually improved, despite the higher debt. They said that only 40% of this was in the increased value of homes, too. The rest was bonds and other investments.