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highthief

10-01-2006 02:30 AM

Is the Liberal party nuts?

Bob Rae ... Bob "I wrecked Ontario" Rae is a front runner (indeed, some suggest he is the favourite) to win the leadership of the Liberal party. have the vested interests in the party lost their minds? There can be no one (well, maybe Joe Volpe and his dead voters) the Tories would rather run against than Rae, knowing full well they will gain more seats in Ontario (because of Rae's record) and Quebec (because Rae can't speak French).

Just what is such a large bloc of the party thinking?

Charlatan

10-01-2006 02:41 AM

Wow... I am really surprised.

I am off to read up on the event...

EDIT: all I can find is that Ignatieff is in the lead with Rae and Dion in a dead heat for 2nd...

Did they already hold the second round of voting?

From what I can read, the Ontario contingent of voters are *very* soft on Rae. There is still a ways to go on this... I am still predicting a victory for Ignatieff.

highthief

10-01-2006 04:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan

The pundits were saying Ignatieff is very vulnerable to losing out in 2nd and 3rd round balloting, with Rae being the one who might profit most from others dropping from the race.

I think to even consider Rae is utterly insane. I wouldn't imagine the Liberals winning a single seat in Ontario outside possibly the downtown Toronto core if Rae were at the helm. His French is awful, too, so there goes Quebec.

Charlatan

10-01-2006 04:52 AM

All I know is I wish I could be watching all of this and getting the play by play... there is going to be some serious backroom negotiations going on. Where those 10percenters shift their support is going to matter in the next round BUT the real drama will be where will Kennedy, Rae or Dion throw their support if it comes to a third round... they have the numbers to tip anyone over the top.

While I think Rae is an interesting choice, leadership wise, I have to agree that he a poor choice because of his past. It would be his undoing in a head to head with Harper.

Baraka_Guru

10-01-2006 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by highthief

[The Tories know] full well they will gain more seats in Ontario (because of Rae's record) [...]

Although Rae has a reputation in Ontario, it was as an NDP premier. And don't forget that many Ontarians are still too busy hating what Mike Harris had done to the province, not to mention Mike Harris himself. (Remember: the public's memory is more potent when the history is more recent.) Between the various political parties that have ruled provincial office, many Ontario voters are upset to a disproporionate degree. The bottom line, however, is that provincial politics are quite different from federal politics. Although Rae has no federal experience, he has many credentials and cannot be attached to the sponsorship scandal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by highthief

[...] and Quebec (because Rae can't speak French).

Actually, Bob Rae is quite fluent in French. Were you thinking of Gerard Kennedy?

I know, I know, as an Ontarian, the idea of "Prime Minister Bob Rae" sounds a bit freakish. But it isn't that far-fetched and could actually happen.

highthief

10-01-2006 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

I saw a few outtakes from a some Q&A Rae had to take from Quebec reporters - can't say I was impressed by his French at all. He seemed very uncomfortable.

As for Mike Harris, my money is on John Tory to win the next provincial tilt - other than Toronto (Havana North), people have mostly gotten past any Mike Harris/Tory hate.

Ace_O_Spades

10-01-2006 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

I know, I know, as an Ontarian, the idea of "Prime Minister Bob Rae" sounds a bit freakish. But it isn't that far-fetched and could actually happen.

Exactly... three years ago I would have thought Prime Minister Stephen Harper sounded INCREDIBLY freakish... look where we are now.

A scandal here, a moral panic there, and BOOM, freaky Stephen Harper is Prime Minister

highthief

10-02-2006 03:52 AM

And Bob Rae is sitting in 2nd spot behind Ignatieff, with Dion and Kennedy sharing third. All other candidates are likely too far behind to be part of the mix come the big convention.

Amaras

10-04-2006 07:30 AM

Imagine if the vote gets split and the Bloc Quebecois gets the majority!

Charlatan

10-04-2006 07:33 AM

There aren't enough seats in Quebec to win a Majority...

highthief

10-04-2006 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grolsch

Imagine if the vote gets split and the Bloc Quebecois gets the majority!

That's how the NDP got in in Ontario - protest votes and split votes. Only about 35% of Ontarians voted for Rae the last time, can't imagine that number going up!

However, I know that it is numerically possible for the Bloc to gain a majority as they only run candidates in the Quebec ridings. They might obtain greater balance of power however, as they have to some extent now.

Charlatan

12-02-2006 10:06 AM

I've just been watching the speeches given by the leadership candidates and I have to say that Bob Rae sounded great. Ignatieff sounded very flat and dry.

After two rounds it is still anyone's game. With Kennedy giving his support to Dion It is a real horse race.

I think this is going to go four rounds and I think it's going to be Rae with Dion crossing the floor to support him.

What an exciting time to be a Liberal.

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