I won 25k on Deal or no Deal Game
 

I just won 500,000!!!!!!!!! i'm a half a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D

I closed a deal for 66,363 dollars when in reality my suitcase only contained 300 dollars!!! I rock!

Played again and closed a deal for 355,000 dollars - and my suitcase contained 01cent... :)

Played twice - Closed for $55k the first time with $100 in my case
$233,800 the second time with $200 in my case.

Believe it or not, this is a new game show here in England - i'm totally addicted it has to be said - the only let down is the game show host (Noel Edmunds) who is a has been to say the least.

I've found recently that the best worldwide phenomenon game shows have come frome England - Millionaire and Weakest Link for instance. Does that mean we are a nation of gamblers or entrepreneurs?

Who knows... all I want is to be on the show and win £250K hell yeah

I closed a deal for $62K... my suitcase contained $0.01

I just won $96k with $10k in my box. yay! I'm rich I tells ya

I just won $5!

I had it down to two suitcases -- $1,000,000 or $5. The bank offered over $300,000.

I felt lucky.

This is why I don't gamble.

Felt lucky, went at it...won the $1,000,000!!! Damn, if this was real!

Woo-hoo! Went again (8th time), held on until three rounds to go, closed for $305,205, and had a $10 in the case!

Down to one case, with 75k and 100k on the board... the banker offers 73k?

Yawn, won 1,000,000

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v6...alornodeal.jpg

For the Matematicians, statisticians or actuaries, when is the ideal to make a deal?

I think I discussed this already in the Tilted Entertainment thread about the show, but here goes:

The formula is a summation of expected values. You take the value of the amount in the case, multiply it by the expected chance of it being chosen, and then sum across all cases.

Therefore,

E(p)=Sigma (i=1 to N) E(i)*V(i)

Wow, that was really bad notation, but I don't know how to do math notation on a computer.

You should take the deal whenever the Banker offers you more than E(p).

E(.01) = 0.01 *1/26 or just .01/26
E(1) = 1 * 1/26 = 1/26
E(1,000,000) = 1,000,000/26

But wait. Using that equation, the banker should offer you 131,477.50$ at the first turn of the game, before the first case is opened. You would both call it even, at the start.

But this is obviously not the case. There must be a weight applied to the earlier rounds, because it costs nothing for the bank to open a few cases. The expected value of the Penny or even the 5,000 case in round one (where everything is divided by the probability of 1 in 26), the payoff is 192.31$ for the 5,000$ case!

If you pick the 1,000,000$ case first, you just gave the bank 38,561.54$ !

Of course, The deals are weighted poorly in the early rounds, or else there would not be very much of a show.

Remember, my calculation needs to be run every round, with updated information, and N has changed...

Am I right? That's how my brain interpreted it, anyway.

math geeks are just so sexy... :)