I won 25k on Deal or no Deal Game - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

cheezhead · 03-04-2006, 12:04 PM

http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/

cj2112 · 03-04-2006, 01:01 PM

I just won 500,000!!!!!!!!! i'm a half a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

maleficent · 03-04-2006, 01:32 PM

I closed a deal for 66,363 dollars when in reality my suitcase only contained 300 dollars!!! I rock!

Played again and closed a deal for 355,000 dollars - and my suitcase contained 01cent...

Mondak · 03-04-2006, 04:48 PM

Played twice - Closed for $55k the first time with $100 in my case
$233,800 the second time with $200 in my case.

paulskinback · 03-04-2006, 04:49 PM

Believe it or not, this is a new game show here in England - i'm totally addicted it has to be said - the only let down is the game show host (Noel Edmunds) who is a has been to say the least.

I've found recently that the best worldwide phenomenon game shows have come frome England - Millionaire and Weakest Link for instance. Does that mean we are a nation of gamblers or entrepreneurs?

Who knows... all I want is to be on the show and win £250K hell yeah

noodle · 03-04-2006, 05:02 PM

I closed a deal for $62K... my suitcase contained $0.01

paulskinback · 03-05-2006, 04:26 AM

I just won $96k with $10k in my box. yay! I'm rich I tells ya

Charlatan · 03-05-2006, 05:28 AM

I just won $5!

I had it down to two suitcases -- $1,000,000 or $5. The bank offered over $300,000.

I felt lucky.

This is why I don't gamble.

DEI37 · 03-05-2006, 05:51 AM

Felt lucky, went at it...won the $1,000,000!!! Damn, if this was real!

DEI37 · 03-05-2006, 05:59 AM

Woo-hoo! Went again (8th time), held on until three rounds to go, closed for $305,205, and had a $10 in the case!

grumpyolddude · 03-05-2006, 06:59 AM

Down to one case, with 75k and 100k on the board... the banker offers 73k?

Astrocloud · 03-05-2006, 10:26 AM

Yawn, won 1,000,000

Sticky · 03-06-2006, 10:21 AM

For the Matematicians, statisticians or actuaries, when is the ideal to make a deal?

BigBen · 03-06-2006, 10:55 AM

I think I discussed this already in the Tilted Entertainment thread about the show, but here goes:

The formula is a summation of expected values. You take the value of the amount in the case, multiply it by the expected chance of it being chosen, and then sum across all cases.

Therefore,

E(p)=Sigma (i=1 to N) E(i)*V(i)

Wow, that was really bad notation, but I don't know how to do math notation on a computer.

You should take the deal whenever the Banker offers you more than E(p).

E(.01) = 0.01 *1/26 or just .01/26
E(1) = 1 * 1/26 = 1/26
E(1,000,000) = 1,000,000/26

But wait. Using that equation, the banker should offer you 131,477.50$ at the first turn of the game, before the first case is opened. You would both call it even, at the start.

But this is obviously not the case. There must be a weight applied to the earlier rounds, because it costs nothing for the bank to open a few cases. The expected value of the Penny or even the 5,000 case in round one (where everything is divided by the probability of 1 in 26), the payoff is 192.31$ for the 5,000$ case!

If you pick the 1,000,000$ case first, you just gave the bank 38,561.54$ !

Of course, The deals are weighted poorly in the early rounds, or else there would not be very much of a show.

Remember, my calculation needs to be run every round, with updated information, and N has changed...

Am I right? That's how my brain interpreted it, anyway.

maleficent · 03-06-2006, 11:02 AM

math geeks are just so sexy...

03-04-2006, 12:04 PM	#1 (permalink)
cheezhead Psycho Location: FL	I won 25k on Deal or no Deal Game http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/

03-04-2006, 01:32 PM	#3 (permalink)
maleficent Junkie Moderator Emeritus Location: Chicago	I closed a deal for 66,363 dollars when in reality my suitcase only contained 300 dollars!!! I rock! Played again and closed a deal for 355,000 dollars - and my suitcase contained 01cent... __________________ Free your heart from hatred. Free your mind from worries. Live simply. Give more. Expect less. Last edited by maleficent; 03-04-2006 at 02:45 PM..

03-04-2006, 04:48 PM	#4 (permalink)
Mondak Industrialist Location: Southern California	Played twice - Closed for $55k the first time with $100 in my case $233,800 the second time with $200 in my case. __________________ All truth passes through three stages: First it is ridiculed Second, it is violently opposed and Third, it is accepted as self-evident. ARTHUR SCHOPENHAUER (1788-1860)

03-04-2006, 04:49 PM	#5 (permalink)
paulskinback Insane	Believe it or not, this is a new game show here in England - i'm totally addicted it has to be said - the only let down is the game show host (Noel Edmunds) who is a has been to say the least. I've found recently that the best worldwide phenomenon game shows have come frome England - Millionaire and Weakest Link for instance. Does that mean we are a nation of gamblers or entrepreneurs? Who knows... all I want is to be on the show and win £250K hell yeah __________________ 'Everything that can be invented has been invented.- - 1899, Charles Duell, U.S. Office of Patents. 'There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.' - Ken Olson, 1977, Digital Equipment Corporation

03-05-2006, 04:26 AM	#7 (permalink)
paulskinback Insane	I just won $96k with $10k in my box. yay! I'm rich I tells ya __________________ 'Everything that can be invented has been invented.- - 1899, Charles Duell, U.S. Office of Patents. 'There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.' - Ken Olson, 1977, Digital Equipment Corporation

03-04-2006, 01:01 PM	#2 (permalink)
cj2112 Unbelievable Location: Grants Pass OR	I just won 500,000!!!!!!!!! i'm a half a millionaire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

03-05-2006, 05:28 AM	#8 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	I just won $5! I had it down to two suitcases -- $1,000,000 or $5. The bank offered over $300,000. I felt lucky. This is why I don't gamble. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

03-05-2006, 05:51 AM	#9 (permalink)
DEI37 Go faster! Location: Wisconsin	Felt lucky, went at it...won the $1,000,000!!! Damn, if this was real! __________________ Generally speaking, if you were to get what you really deserve, you might be unpleasantly surprised.

03-05-2006, 05:59 AM	#10 (permalink)
DEI37 Go faster! Location: Wisconsin	Woo-hoo! Went again (8th time), held on until three rounds to go, closed for $305,205, and had a $10 in the case! __________________ Generally speaking, if you were to get what you really deserve, you might be unpleasantly surprised.

03-05-2006, 06:59 AM	#11 (permalink)
grumpyolddude Deliberately unfocused Location: Amazon.com and CDBaby	Down to one case, with 75k and 100k on the board... the banker offers 73k?

03-05-2006, 10:26 AM	#12 (permalink)
Astrocloud Apocalypse Nerd	Yawn, won 1,000,000

03-06-2006, 10:21 AM	#13 (permalink)
Sticky	For the Matematicians, statisticians or actuaries, when is the ideal to make a deal? __________________ Sticky The Stickman

03-06-2006, 10:55 AM	#14 (permalink)
BigBen Comedian Location: Use the search button	I think I discussed this already in the Tilted Entertainment thread about the show, but here goes: The formula is a summation of expected values. You take the value of the amount in the case, multiply it by the expected chance of it being chosen, and then sum across all cases. Therefore, E(p)=Sigma (i=1 to N) E(i)V(i) Wow, that was really bad notation, but I don't know how to do math notation on a computer. You should take the deal whenever the Banker offers you more than E(p). E(.01) = 0.01 1/26 or just .01/26 E(1) = 1 * 1/26 = 1/26 E(1,000,000) = 1,000,000/26 But wait. Using that equation, the banker should offer you 131,477.50$ at the first turn of the game, before the first case is opened. You would both call it even, at the start. But this is obviously not the case. There must be a weight applied to the earlier rounds, because it costs nothing for the bank to open a few cases. The expected value of the Penny or even the 5,000 case in round one (where everything is divided by the probability of 1 in 26), the payoff is 192.31$ for the 5,000$ case! If you pick the 1,000,000$ case first, you just gave the bank 38,561.54$ ! Of course, The deals are weighted poorly in the early rounds, or else there would not be very much of a show. Remember, my calculation needs to be run every round, with updated information, and N has changed... Am I right? That's how my brain interpreted it, anyway. __________________ 3.141592654 Hey, if you are impressed with my memorizing pi to 10 digits, you should see the size of my penis.

03-06-2006, 11:02 AM	#15 (permalink)
maleficent Junkie Moderator Emeritus Location: Chicago	math geeks are just so sexy... __________________ Free your heart from hatred. Free your mind from worries. Live simply. Give more. Expect less.