Hey, whatever happened to...? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Martian · 02-12-2006, 02:53 PM

My wager with highthief?

I seem to recall that we bet on who's predictions would come true. I forgot about it in all the recent turmoil in my life, but recenly recalled that I'd done such a thing.

highthief, I will not hold you to anything, but I would like to see the results, purely to satisfy my own curiosity.

So Charlatan, do you still have that spreadsheet?

highthief · 02-13-2006, 04:35 AM

Hey, I make due my wagers - I think we were both far off, but I'm not sure who was more off!

Martian · 02-13-2006, 11:45 AM

I got home and found no results, so I made my own.

Pursuant to the original wager, the results are based on the average deviation of the NDP and the Liberals; we took the Bloc and Conservatives out of the equation, because our estimates were the same for those two, or at least close enough that it wouldn't effect the outcome signifigantly.

I whipped up a quick spreadsheet and plugged in the numbers. Here's what I got :

Martian :
Deviation of liberals - 2.86%
Deviation of NDP - 38.3%
Total margin of error - 21 seats
Average deviation - 20.58%

highthief :
Deviation of liberals - 23.31%
Deviation of NDP - 37.93%
Total margin of error - 42 seats
Average deviation - 30.62%

The numbers are a bit misleading - I'd say the contest was pretty close. We both missed the NDP by nearly the same amount, only I gave them too much credit and you gave them too little. With that, it was my luck on the Liberals (102 was my estimate vs the 105 seats they actually got) that put me ahead.

Do you want me to find you a logo, or do you think you can handle that yourself?

Charlatan · 02-14-2006, 08:07 AM

Sorry guys... I just noticed this thread.

I guess I am a pretty lousy moderator. Congratulations Martian. The numbers look pretty good to me.

BigBen · 02-14-2006, 09:25 AM

What is the bet?

Does Highthief have to get a tattoo now? Marvin the Martian on his back?

highthief · 02-20-2006, 04:22 AM

No, I had to put in this new Leaf sig for a month!

Grr!

Martian · 02-22-2006, 02:01 PM

Go, Leafs, Go indeed.

Hey, you'll have your shot at it again before too long. Who wants to place wagers on how long Harper can hold his minority together? We can start a pool!

02-12-2006, 02:53 PM	#1 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	Hey, whatever happened to...? My wager with highthief? I seem to recall that we bet on who's predictions would come true. I forgot about it in all the recent turmoil in my life, but recenly recalled that I'd done such a thing. highthief, I will not hold you to anything, but I would like to see the results, purely to satisfy my own curiosity. So Charlatan, do you still have that spreadsheet? __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

02-13-2006, 04:35 AM	#2 (permalink)
highthief Junkie Location: Ontario, Canada	Hey, I make due my wagers - I think we were both far off, but I'm not sure who was more off! __________________ Si vis pacem parabellum.

02-13-2006, 11:45 AM	#3 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	I got home and found no results, so I made my own. Pursuant to the original wager, the results are based on the average deviation of the NDP and the Liberals; we took the Bloc and Conservatives out of the equation, because our estimates were the same for those two, or at least close enough that it wouldn't effect the outcome signifigantly. I whipped up a quick spreadsheet and plugged in the numbers. Here's what I got : Martian : Deviation of liberals - 2.86% Deviation of NDP - 38.3% Total margin of error - 21 seats Average deviation - 20.58% highthief : Deviation of liberals - 23.31% Deviation of NDP - 37.93% Total margin of error - 42 seats Average deviation - 30.62% The numbers are a bit misleading - I'd say the contest was pretty close. We both missed the NDP by nearly the same amount, only I gave them too much credit and you gave them too little. With that, it was my luck on the Liberals (102 was my estimate vs the 105 seats they actually got) that put me ahead. Do you want me to find you a logo, or do you think you can handle that yourself? __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

02-14-2006, 08:07 AM	#4 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Sorry guys... I just noticed this thread. I guess I am a pretty lousy moderator. Congratulations Martian. The numbers look pretty good to me. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

02-14-2006, 09:25 AM	#5 (permalink)
BigBen Comedian Location: Use the search button	What is the bet? Does Highthief have to get a tattoo now? Marvin the Martian on his back? __________________ 3.141592654 Hey, if you are impressed with my memorizing pi to 10 digits, you should see the size of my penis.

02-20-2006, 04:22 AM	#6 (permalink)
highthief Junkie Location: Ontario, Canada	No, I had to put in this new Leaf sig for a month! Grr! __________________ Si vis pacem parabellum.

02-22-2006, 02:01 PM	#7 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	Go, Leafs, Go indeed. Hey, you'll have your shot at it again before too long. Who wants to place wagers on how long Harper can hold his minority together? We can start a pool! __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame