Hey, whatever happened to...?
 

My wager with highthief?

I seem to recall that we bet on who's predictions would come true. I forgot about it in all the recent turmoil in my life, but recenly recalled that I'd done such a thing.

highthief, I will not hold you to anything, but I would like to see the results, purely to satisfy my own curiosity.

So Charlatan, do you still have that spreadsheet?

Hey, I make due my wagers - I think we were both far off, but I'm not sure who was more off!

I got home and found no results, so I made my own.

Pursuant to the original wager, the results are based on the average deviation of the NDP and the Liberals; we took the Bloc and Conservatives out of the equation, because our estimates were the same for those two, or at least close enough that it wouldn't effect the outcome signifigantly.

I whipped up a quick spreadsheet and plugged in the numbers. Here's what I got :

Martian :
Deviation of liberals - 2.86%
Deviation of NDP - 38.3%
Total margin of error - 21 seats
Average deviation - 20.58%

highthief :
Deviation of liberals - 23.31%
Deviation of NDP - 37.93%
Total margin of error - 42 seats
Average deviation - 30.62%

The numbers are a bit misleading - I'd say the contest was pretty close. We both missed the NDP by nearly the same amount, only I gave them too much credit and you gave them too little. With that, it was my luck on the Liberals (102 was my estimate vs the 105 seats they actually got) that put me ahead.

Do you want me to find you a logo, or do you think you can handle that yourself? ;)

Sorry guys... I just noticed this thread.


I guess I am a pretty lousy moderator. Congratulations Martian. The numbers look pretty good to me.

What is the bet?

Does Highthief have to get a tattoo now? Marvin the Martian on his back?

No, I had to put in this new Leaf sig for a month!

Grr!

Go, Leafs, Go indeed. ;)

Hey, you'll have your shot at it again before too long. Who wants to place wagers on how long Harper can hold his minority together? We can start a pool!