Election Predictions Contest

[Sticky]

Borrowing on an idea from a highthief and Martian bet from another thread, make your election predictions here.

Recap:

Current Party Distribution
Liberals - 133 seats
Tories - 98 seats
Bloc - 53 seats
NDP - 18 seats
Indie - 4 seats
Vacant - 2 seats
Total - 308 seats

Current Provincial (and Territorial) Distribution
Alberta - 28
British Colombia - 36
Manitoba - 14
New Brunswick - 10
Newfoundland (and Labrador) - 7
Northwest Territories - 1
Nova Scotia - 11
Nunavut - 1
Ontario - 106
Prince Edward Island - 4
Quebec - 75
Saskatchewan - 14
Yukon - 1
Total - 308

For a detailed split by party and province click here

Rules
- List your predictions for seat distribution by party.
- List you predictions for overall popular vote by party.
- List your predictions in this thread the way they are listed above where it says "Current Party Distribution"
- Provide you predictions by end of the weekend (end of day Sunday December 4th)


Scoring
- After the election results come out I will tabulate the scores
- You will get one point for each correctly identified seat by party
- Should there be a tie the person with the smallest total differential in their predictions for popular vote by party from the actual results will be declared the winner.
- If it is still tied we will figure something out.

Volunteer
- I volunteer myself
- I would like to ask for one more volunteer to confer with just in case there is an issue.
***Edit
- Unless there are a number of objections, the volunteer can participate.
- I will provide my prdictions for the record only.
/edit

Prize
- Suggest a prize

[highthief]

I'll play and will stick with projections in the other thread:

Liberals - 137 seats
Tories - 100 seats
Bloc - 55 seats
NDP - 15 seats
Independant - 1 seat

Popular vote:

Liberals: 35%
Tories: 29%
NDP: 18%
Bloc: 14%
Other: 4%

[Bob Biter]

SEATS:
Liberals - 112 seats
Tories - 101 seats
Bloc - 65 seats
NDP - 23 seats
Indie - 5 seats
Vacant - 2 seats
__________________
Total - 308 seats

POPULAR VOTE:
Liberals - 36%
Tories - 31%
Bloc - 23%
NDP - 8%
other - 2%

I hate to say this, but I think all of that election brouhaha will only serve to put an even weaker Liberal government in minority power.

[Charlatan]

Bob... how can there be vacant seats after an election?

[Sticky]

He must be expecting someone to die prior to election day but after it is too late to be taken off the ballot.

I will try to take in the predictions as close to the end of the posting day as possible so that you can make changes up to then (like changing the vacant spots).

[Sticky]

Here is goes...I now lay myself out on the line.

My Predictions

Seats
Liberals - 129 seats
Tories - 102 seats
Bloc - 57 seats
NDP - 19 seats
Indie - 1 seats


Popular vote
Liberals - 30.5%
Tories - 30%
Bloc - 15.5%
NDP - 19%
Other - 5%


Anybody else? or all you all waiting untio the end of day Sunday.

[Charlatan]

My Predictions

Seats
Liberals - 130 seats
Tories - 101 seats
Bloc - 55 seats
NDP - 22 seats



Popular vote
Liberals - 30%
Tories - 30%
Bloc - 15%
NDP - 19%
Other - 6%



I reserve the right to play with these until the cut off date.

[feelgood]

Seats
Liberals - 118 seats
Tories - 113 seats
Bloc - 54 seats
NDP - 21 seats
Indie - 2 seats

Popular Vote
Liberals: 32%
Tories: 31%
NDP: 19%
Bloc: 16%
Other: 2%

[Sticky]

I just built a model.

So just as a note in case my scoring description did not make sense, if the election results were the same as the last (including the vacant seats for this excercise) highthief would be the winner so far. Here is the example calculation.


The numbers to the left of the operator are the example results and the numbers to the right are highthief's
L: 133 < 137 --> 133
T: 98 < 100 --> 98
B: 53 < 55 --> 53
N: 18 > 15 --> 15
I: 4 > 1 --> 1
V: 2 > 0 --> 0
Total Score 300

[Ustwo]

Ok Liberals and Tories are easy, so who are the NDP, Block, and Indie's?

[Charlatan]

For those who would like to play along at home:

The Liberals: traditionally a Centrist Party but in the last 15 years they have evolved into a Fiscally Conservative/Socially Liberal party.

The Conservatives: a relatively new party that emerged from the merging of the Reform Party (Social and Fiscal Conservatives - some might call them neo-cons) and the Progressive Conservatives (Fiscally Conservative/Socially Liberal - but all but decimated after the 80s)

New Democratic Party: Also called the NDP, are a Socially and Fiscally Liberal party. Often painted with the tax and spend brush but that is less true today than it was in the past. As a result they will likely never hold power. Rather they are an important voice of opposition and in minority goverment situations, they frequently hold the balance of power.

Bloc Quebequois: This is a regional party that fields no candidates outside of Quebec. They are a seperatist party and work in Ottawa to fight for Quebec issues at the Federal level. They are important due to the high population and therefore greater number of seats that are up for grabs in Quebec. They hold the true balance of power (and have even been the official opposition -- ie they held the second highest number of seats -- but are a wild card as they support only that which benefits Quebec). IT should also be noted that the Bloc tends towards the left of centre in their politics.

Green Party: Again, a fiscally consesrvative but socially liberal party but their policies are seen through the prisim of the environment. Growing in popularity and often seen as the spoiler vote... vote for them instead of anyone else.

Independents: Individuals who run for office with no party affiliation. They are very locally based in their politics BUT can carry an important vote in a Minority government situation (indie Chuck Cadman was the swing vote in last spring's non-cnofidence vote).

[Sticky]

The question that I would have, which could kill a few of my seat predictions, is:
Are any of the current independants going to run as independants in the upcoming election or are they going to join a party.

[Charlatan]

Current independant seats:

Carolyn Parrish - retiring
Pat O'Brien - former Liberal - quit in protest of same-sex legislation -- not running.
David Kilgour - former Liberal - quit in protest of Sponsorship scandal - not running.
Bev Desjarlais - former NDP voted against same-sex legislation was was kicked out of Caucus. Will run independant

[highthief]

Originally Posted by Sticky

I just built a model.

So just as a note in case my scoring description did not make sense, if the election results were the same as the last (including the vacant seats for this excercise) highthief would be the winner...

I declare myself winner in advance!

[highthief]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Carolyn Parrish - retiring

Thank God!

[Sticky]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Current independant seats:

Carolyn Parrish - retiring
Pat O'Brien - former Liberal - quit in protest of same-sex legislation -- not running.
David Kilgour - former Liberal - quit in protest of Sponsorship scandal - not running.
Bev Desjarlais - former NDP voted against same-sex legislation was was kicked out of Caucus. Will run independant

Thanks, just bumped my independants down.

[prosequence]

Liberals - 108 seats
Tories - 126 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
NDP - 15 seats
Indie - 3 seats
Total - 308 seats

PC @ 37%
Lib @ 31%
ND @ 16%
Bloc @ 12%
Other @ 4%

Hehe - should be like a ProLine game - official lottery !!

[Sticky]

The entry period is over.

[Sticky]

edit: I can't get the image to post. I can't explain why, but the [img][/img] is not working.

[Charlatan]

Could be the site you are linking to doesn't allow linking... either find another source for the image or save the image to a host like Photobucket...

[Antikarma]

I'm not in the contest, but thought you'd like today's results. Take it with a grain of sand, it changes daily, but here you go:

SES CPAC
06/12/2005
Liberal 40
CPC 28
NDP 17
Bloc 11
Green 4

democraticSPACE
ELECTION PREDICTION
Liberal 112
CPC 102
NDP 29
Bloc 65
Green 0

308 seats total,
156 seats required for majority (with speaker)



SES CPAC Poll report 12 pt advantage for Liberals
07/12/2005

Polling completed Tuesday December 6th indicates that the Liberals are now at 40% popular support followed by the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 17%, the BQ at 11% and the Green Party at 4%. Martin's Performance Index Score increased 10 points on the day of his National Daycare announcement.


The shift in focus from the Advertising Scandal to issues such as daycare and healthcare seems to be playing to the Liberals favour.

Polling completed Tuesday December 6th indicates that the Liberals are now at 40% popular support followed by the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 17%, the BQ at 11% and the Green Party at 4%. Martin's Performance Index Score increased 10 points on the day of his National Daycare announcement.

Polling December 4 to December 6, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1,200 Canadians, MoE ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com.

All values in parenthesis are changes from our November 13th national survey.

Canada Decided Voters
LIB - 40% (+6)
CP - 28% (NC)
NDP - 17% (-3)
BQ - 11% (-3)
GP - 4% (NC)
*18% of Canadians were undecided (+4)

In Quebec
BQ - 46% (-8)
LIB - 32% (+8)
CP - 10% (+1)
NDP - 8% (NC)
GP - 4% (NC)

Outside Quebec
LIB - 43% (+6)
CP - 33% (-2)
NDP - 20% (-5)
GP - 4% (NC)

Best PM
Martin - 29% (NC)
Unsure - 21% (+8)
Harper - 21% (-1)
None - 10% (-1)
Layton - 10% (-6)
Duceppe - 6% (-1)
Harris - 2% (-2)

Leadership Index (Daily composite of the Leaders' Trust, Competence
and Vision)*
Martin - 86 (+10)
Harper - 47 (-10)
Layton - 37 (+2)
Duceppe - 24 (NC)
Harris - 12 (+1)
* Change for this measure is from yesterday's composite score.

[highthief]

Man, Harper is the anchor dragging the Conservative ship down, isn't he, based on that poll?

[Yakk]

UBC election predictions as of this point:
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA06/index.php
110 liberal (-25)
117 conservative (+18)
22 NDP (+3)
58 BQ (+4)
1 Other (no change)

Pop:
Lib 31.1%
Con 32.9%
NDP 15.3%
BQ 12.3%
Other 6.2%

(Yes, that doesn't add up to 100%. Multiply the numbers by 1.02 to get a set of populare vote numbers that adds up to 100%.)

[Charlatan]

The latest predictions from democraticSPACE

82 Liberal
135 Conservative
32 NDP
59 BQ
0 Green
0 Other


% of Popular Vote:
Lib 28.3%
Con 37.9%
NDP 17.8%
BQ 10.7%
Green 5.1
Other 0.2%

% of seats
Lib 27%
Con 44%
NDP 10%
BQ 19%
Green 0%
Other 0.2%


Remember again that it takes 156 seats to from a majority.

The closest I can see to these sorts of numbers is Prosequence... I believe he is the only one that predicted Conservative win... only a week left. Can Harper stay the course or will he fumble?

[Leto]

I think Harper will prevail through to the end. I'm sure he's getting all knds of coaching, so it's his to lose. Back in '04, I was working with the girlfriend of his speach writer (a 20-something Chicagoan Accenture consultant) who was giving us the back stage poop. These guys have so many assistants, that all they really have to do is follow the script. Any independance may actually cause problems.

Martin is looking desparate, and uncomfortable. The only way the Liberals can win now ( I think) is if voters decide that change for change's sake is stupid way to vote.

[Charlatan]

I agree, it think it is just a matter of by how many seats will Harper win.

[prosequence]

Go harper go... wish I would've increased the NDP sets I predicted, they seem to be showing well....

[Sticky]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Remember again that it takes 156 seats to from a majority.

Only 155 are needed for a majority.
unless my math fails me.

I agree though, it is Harper's to loose at this point.

I don't care who anybody wants to win, all I know is that often change is the best thing.

[Charlatan]

155 plus 1 for a speaker of the house = a majority.

[Sticky]

Let's try posting the image of the results.
(it did not work before)

<b>prosequence</b> is the winner

[img]http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0SwCZHPEWcIZPWiPRtD4lAGIZTMBYHrsvN!8LelGKTm!n2Ur6rwyC0ET4*CgDCXajnLKcagUFx*SVWn3EHy4ZlXkhESpuLvWX9xA3mPtYi179siMnqbX6vQ/example6.jpg?dc=4675557400966358747[/img]

[Sticky]

the image won't post. I will try html

<img src="http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0SwCZHPEWcIZPWiPRtD4lAGIZTMBYHrsvN!8LelGKTm!n2Ur6rwyC0ET4*CgDCXajnLKcagUFx*SVWn3EHy4ZlXkhESpuLvWX9xA3mPtYi179siMnqbX6vQ/example6.jpg?dc=4675557400966358747">

[Sticky]

hmm, any ideas?

Try this if you want to see the results
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0SwCZHPEWcIZPWiPRtD4lAGIZTMBYHrsvN!8LelGKTm!n2Ur6rwyC0ET4*CgDCXajnLKcagUFx*SVWn3EHy4ZlXkhESpuLvWX9xA3mPtYi179siMnqbX6vQ/example6.jpg?dc=4675557400966358747

[alpha phi]

Originally Posted by Sticky

hmm, any ideas?

Try this if you want to see the results
http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0SwCZHPEWcIZPWiPRtD4lAGIZTMBYHrsvN!8LelGKTm!n2Ur6rwyC0ET4*CgDCXajnLKcagUFx*SVWn3EHy4ZlXkhESpuLvWX9xA3mPtYi179siMnqbX6vQ/example6.jpg?dc=4675557400966358747

Try This

[Sticky]

ah, imageshack

Thanks

[prosequence]

Woohoooo!!!!!!
I rule the WORLD (or at least the part my wife will let me).

I would like to be paid One million dollars in Toonies.
OR
if you are unable to meet my demands, all must send me 10 of your best pictures from your porn collection.

ORRRRRR

ah, out of ideas, sorry

[Charlatan]

Way to go prosequence. Who would have though, even two years ago, that the Conservatives could win seats in Quebec, let alone win.

[Sticky]

Originally Posted by prosequence

Woohoooo!!!!!!
I rule the WORLD (or at least the part my wife will let me).

I would like to be paid One million dollars in Toonies.
OR
if you are unable to meet my demands, all must send me 10 of your best pictures from your porn collection.

ORRRRRR

ah, out of ideas, sorry

The internet is my porn collection

[prosequence]

I've seen it, looks great.

[feelgood]

Second place eh? Not bad...not bad...

Instead of pics, I'll give you a link that I frequency visit

http://www.babeslog.net/

[Yakk]

Originally Posted by Charlatan

155 plus 1 for a speaker of the house = a majority.

308 seats.

Assume the conservatives + allies manage 155 people.

1 for speaker of the house. That leaves 154. The opposition has 153.

154 > 153, so they can pass bills.

If they don't take speaker (they could leave the liberal current speaker as speaker), they only need 154 to pass bills.

NDP + CON + IND = 154, so this is a real possibility.

Then again, the IND is a shock jock from Montreal, not the most reliable ally.

Then again, we have recounts coming (look at Bruce -- a victor by 21 votes, it is an automatic recount.) So the edge of the knife can fall either way.