Russian and China to form their own NATO - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Slyboots · 10-27-2005, 03:26 PM

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20051026/ts_csm/oalliance_1

Quote:

Russia, China looking to form 'NATO of the East'?

By Fred Weir, Correspondent of The Christian Science MonitorWed Oct 26, 4:00 AM ET

Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.

The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.

One initiative that core members Russia and China agree on, experts say, is to squeeze US influence - which peaked after 9/11 - out of the SCO's neighborhood. "Four years ago, when the SCO was formed, official Washington pooh-poohed it and declared it was no cause for concern," says Ariel Cohen, senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Now they're proven wrong."

Wednesday's meeting is expected to review security cooperation, including a spate of upcoming joint military exercises between SCO members' armed forces. It may also sign off on a new "Contact Group" for Afghanistan. That would help Russia and China - both concerned about increased opium flows and the rise of Islamism - develop direct relations between SCO and the Afghan government. While this will be highly controversial given the presence of NATO troops and Afghans' bitter memories of fighting Russian occupation throughout the 1980s, the Russians have an "in" because they still have longstanding allies in the country.

In attendance Wednesday will be prime ministers of member states Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as top officials from several recently added "observer" states, including Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi.

The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US influence in the region.

"Moscow is seeking options to demonstrate - to Washington in the first place - that Russia is still an important player in this area," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a partner of the US bimonthly journal Foreign Affairs. "China's ambitions are growing fast, and it also wants to turn the SCO into something bigger and more effective."

Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."

An SCO summit last June demanded that the US set a timetable to remove the bases it put in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with Moscow's acquiescence in the wake of 9/11. In July, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov ordered the US base at Karshi-Khanabad to evacuate by year's end.

But two recent visits to Kyrgyzstan by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to have secured the US lease on that country's Manas airbase indefinitely - albeit with a sharp rent increase.

"There is nothing to cheer about," says Mr. Cohen. "Washington has signaled to the Russians that we won't be seeking any new bases in Central Asia. Basically, we are doing nothing to counter the moves against us."

In joint maneuvers last August, Russian strategic bombers, submarines, and paratroopers staged a mock invasion of a "destabilized" far eastern region with Chinese troops. This month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov proposed holding the first Indian-Chinese-Russian war games under SCO sponsorship. "In principle, this is possible," he said. "The SCO was formed as an organization to deal with security issues."

Should states like India and Iran join, the SCO's sway could spread into South Asia and the Middle East. "India sees observer status [in the SCO] as a steppingstone to full membership," says a Moscow-based Indian diplomat who asked not to be named. But he added that India, which has recently improved its relations with the US, does not want to send an anti-US message. "We would hope the Americans would understand our desire to be inside the SCO, rather than outside," he says.

While the SCO's potential looks vast on paper, experts say internal rivalries would preclude it from evolving into a NATO-like security bloc. "What kind of allies could Russia and China be?" says Akady Dubnov, an expert with the Vremya Novostei newspaper. "The main question for them in Central Asia is who will gain the upper hand."

Still, the idea of a unified eastern bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US," says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. "Step by step we're building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US."

Says Cohen: "Eventually they'll wake up to this challenge in Washington. But will it be too late?"

This could be a bad thing if the U.S. doesnt let them join. Since most of the stuff is imported from the China, they could cut us off if we didnt let them. Am I the only one that is reminded of the 2 battling states in 1984? You know the book.

Rodney · 10-27-2005, 03:43 PM

Well, Russia and China have a pretty dim view of one another, so I wouldn't expect this organization to be a tightly-organized, coordinated alliance. It may be good for what it says it's for, however -- limiting U.S. influence in the area. If the Russians, China, and the former Soviet bloc states, plus maybe Pakistan and India, can work out a mutual security pact that works, then the members have less reason to accept U.S. protection (and U.S. demands). And why is that necessarily a bad idea _for them?_

As for the U.S. standing in the way of this, there's no way they can stop Russia and China from doing anything they want. Especially since Russia isn't welcome in NATO or the EU, apparently. Iran might go, too, and then what? The Russians have already been pretty buddy-buddy with the Iranians.

At some point, U.S. interests will no longer dominate the world; the world's growing too complex to be dominated by a single nation, or a power block ruled by a single nation. Just as eventually, the British could no longer dominate their empire and had to let it go. It's going to be a little hard for some people to accept America as no longer the king of the world, but no empire lasts forever. And there's life after empire; ask the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Japanese, even the Swedes; they all had empires.

Willravel · 10-27-2005, 05:11 PM

Can California join too?

Slyboots · 10-27-2005, 05:42 PM

Pretty interesting. Your comments remind me of another article I read that said that in 20 yrs the US will not be the world power as it is now.

You make very good points rodney.

alansmithee · 10-27-2005, 06:47 PM

Well, I have figured something like this was always a possibility. I personally think that after the end of the Cold War, the US should've tried to get closer ties to Russia, and let them deal with Asia. Like was pointed out in the article, there will be no great bond simply because China and Russia see each other as rivals, even if they would put that aside temporarily to attempt to oppose the US.

JumpinJesus · 10-27-2005, 07:10 PM

As others have said about the less than friendly relations between Russia and China, I'm wondering if they will unite against a common rival. If this happens, I'm also wondering how the U.S. will respond.

This will be very interesting to watch develop.

Rodney · 10-28-2005, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by willravel

Can California join too?

How about joining the Commonwealth? :-) I say this as a fellow Californian.

Schwan · 10-28-2005, 04:51 PM

No surprises there. Russia has been shunned by NATO for the last 10 years (and rightly so), while China seeks to counterbalance America's influence. But here's the thing - Russia has a terrible, sagging economy, which is only going to get worse in the next 10 years (think natural gas delivery obligations to the EU and the fact that the US seems to control, in one way or anotherm most of the natural gas sources in Russia's reach, which in turn means that Russia will not be able to deliver what has been contracted with the EU). Even though China is rapidly expanding, there's a huge standard of living gap and even the communist party is preparing for unrest. The Chinese have a nice history of various revolutions (like the Taiping Civil War - oh, what fun that was). So.......... all in all it's not something to loose your sleep over

trickyy · 10-28-2005, 08:16 PM

i remember reading something about this a few years ago when the US decided to invade iraq with marginal international support. in any event, this strenth of this allianace will come into play when oil becomes increasingly scarce.

10-27-2005, 05:42 PM	#4 (permalink)
Slyboots Tilted Location: Newbury Park, California	Pretty interesting. Your comments remind me of another article I read that said that in 20 yrs the US will not be the world power as it is now. You make very good points rodney. __________________ "Ah, yes, divorce......., from the Latin word meaning to rip out a man's genitals through his wallet." -- Robin Williams

10-27-2005, 07:10 PM	#6 (permalink)
JumpinJesus Junkie Location: Chicago	As others have said about the less than friendly relations between Russia and China, I'm wondering if they will unite against a common rival. If this happens, I'm also wondering how the U.S. will respond. This will be very interesting to watch develop. __________________ "I can normally tell how intelligent a man is by how stupid he thinks I am" - Cormac McCarthy, All The Pretty Horses

10-27-2005, 03:43 PM	#2 (permalink)
Rodney Observant Ruminant Location: Rich Wannabe Hippie Town	Well, Russia and China have a pretty dim view of one another, so I wouldn't expect this organization to be a tightly-organized, coordinated alliance. It may be good for what it says it's for, however -- limiting U.S. influence in the area. If the Russians, China, and the former Soviet bloc states, plus maybe Pakistan and India, can work out a mutual security pact that works, then the members have less reason to accept U.S. protection (and U.S. demands). And why is that necessarily a bad idea _for them?_ As for the U.S. standing in the way of this, there's no way they can stop Russia and China from doing anything they want. Especially since Russia isn't welcome in NATO or the EU, apparently. Iran might go, too, and then what? The Russians have already been pretty buddy-buddy with the Iranians. At some point, U.S. interests will no longer dominate the world; the world's growing too complex to be dominated by a single nation, or a power block ruled by a single nation. Just as eventually, the British could no longer dominate their empire and had to let it go. It's going to be a little hard for some people to accept America as no longer the king of the world, but no empire lasts forever. And there's life after empire; ask the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Japanese, even the Swedes; they all had empires.

10-27-2005, 05:11 PM	#3 (permalink)
Willravel ... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.	Can California join too?

10-27-2005, 06:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
alansmithee Junkie	Well, I have figured something like this was always a possibility. I personally think that after the end of the Cold War, the US should've tried to get closer ties to Russia, and let them deal with Asia. Like was pointed out in the article, there will be no great bond simply because China and Russia see each other as rivals, even if they would put that aside temporarily to attempt to oppose the US.

10-28-2005, 04:51 PM	#8 (permalink)
Schwan A boy and his dog Location: EU!	No surprises there. Russia has been shunned by NATO for the last 10 years (and rightly so), while China seeks to counterbalance America's influence. But here's the thing - Russia has a terrible, sagging economy, which is only going to get worse in the next 10 years (think natural gas delivery obligations to the EU and the fact that the US seems to control, in one way or anotherm most of the natural gas sources in Russia's reach, which in turn means that Russia will not be able to deliver what has been contracted with the EU). Even though China is rapidly expanding, there's a huge standard of living gap and even the communist party is preparing for unrest. The Chinese have a nice history of various revolutions (like the Taiping Civil War - oh, what fun that was). So.......... all in all it's not something to loose your sleep over

10-28-2005, 08:16 PM	#9 (permalink)
trickyy ►	i remember reading something about this a few years ago when the US decided to invade iraq with marginal international support. in any event, this strenth of this allianace will come into play when oil becomes increasingly scarce.