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12-25-2004, 10:10 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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Illusionary
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Something to watch out for
Not very likely...but still, interesting to contemplate the remote possibility.
What would you do , if "Deep Impact" became reality? Me, I would probably finally get that Quality time with my family.....short lived though it may be. http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...sk_041224.html Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 24 December 2004 09:58 am ET Update, Dec. 24, 10:19 p.m. ET: An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029 was upgraded to an unprecedented level of risk Friday, Dec. 24. Scientists still stress, however, that odds are further observations will show the space rock won't be on a collision course with the planet. The risk rating for asteroid 2004 MN4 was raised Friday by NASA and a separate group of researchers in Italy. The asteroid's chance for hitting Earth on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating -- never before issued -- is reserved for "events meriting concern" versus the vast majority of potentially threatening asteroids that merely merit "careful monitoring." The Dec. 24 update from NASA stated: "2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6 percent, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98 percent chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029." With a half-dozen or so other asteroid discoveries dating back to 1997, scientists had announced long odds of an impact -- generating frightening headlines in some cases -- only to announce within hours or days that the impact chances had been reduced to zero by further observations. Experts have said repeatedly that they are concerned about alarming the public before enough data is gathered to project an asteroid's path accurately. Asteroid 2004 MN4 is an unusual case in that follow-up observations have caused the risk assessment to climb -- from Torino level 2 to 4 --rather than fall. Below is an edited version of the 2004 MN4 story originally posted on SPACE.com at 9:58 a.m. ET on Dec. 24: Scientists said Thursday that a recently discovered asteroid has a chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029, but that further observations would likely rule out the impact scenario. The asteroid is named 2004 MN4. It was discovered in June and spotted again this month. It is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide. That's bigger than the space rock that carved meteor crater in Arizona, and bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 hit the Earth, it would do considerable localized or regional damage. It would not cause damage on a global scale. Scientists stressed, however, that the rock would likely miss the planet. Dread Factor: Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids Asteroid Scare Prompts NASA to Formalize Response A statement was released by NASA asteroid experts Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas. "The odds of impact, presently around 1 in 300, are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern," the scientists said. "These odds are likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data are received. In all likelihood, the possibility of impact will eventually be eliminated as the asteroid continues to be tracked by astronomers around the world." The scientists project an asteroid's future travels based on observations of its current orbit around the Sun. On computer models, the future orbits are not lines but rather windows of possibility. The orbit projections for 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029 cover a wide swath of space that includes the location where Earth will be. Additional observations will allow refined orbit forecasts -- more like a line instead of a window. The asteroid will be easily observable in coming months, so scientists expect to figure out its path. Most asteroids circle the Sun in a belt between Mars and Jupiter. But some get gravitationally booted toward the inner solar system. The 323-day orbit of 2004 MN4 lies mostly within the orbit of Earth. The asteroid approaches the Sun almost as close as the orbit of Venus. It crosses near the Earth's orbit twice on each of its passages about the Sun. 2004 MN4 was discovered on June 19 by Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi of the NASA-funded University of Hawaii Asteroid Survey. It was rediscovered on Dec. 18 from Australia by Gordon Garradd of the Siding Spring Survey. More than three dozen observations have been made, with more expected to roll in from other observatories this week.
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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12-27-2004, 03:42 PM
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#11 (permalink) |
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Illusionary
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Woo Hoo.....The Odds are sittin' at 1 in 40.....
Asteroid Watch: Odds of 2029 Collision Stuck at 1-in-40 By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 27 December 2004 01:30 pm ET The odds of impact in the year 2029 by a recently discovered asteroid are unlikely to change much in the next few weeks, astronomers said Monday. Last Thursday, Dec. 23, scientists announced that a space rock named 2004 MN4 had about a 1-in-300 chance of striking Earth on April 13, 2029. On Friday, the risk was upgraded as more observations rolled in. The asteroid was given an unprecedented risk rating of 4 on the Torino Scale, which means it warrants careful monitoring. The odds at various times were put at 1-in-63 and 1-in-45. As of Monday, the chances of an impact on April 13, 2029 stood at about 1-in-40, or 2.6 percent. Experts point out that means a 97.4 percent chance the giant boulder will miss, and they stress that the odds are likely to go down to zero, eventually, when more detailed observations of its path are made. Significant revision -- if it comes -- probably won't happen soon. "Slow changes should be expected for the next days and weeks, but probably nothing too dramatic unless the Arecibo [Observatory] radar weighs in late January or early February," Don Yeomans, as asteroid expert at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told SPACE.com on Monday. Surprisingly worrisome 2004 MN4 is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide, large enough to cause considerable local or regional damage were it to hit the planet. It is larger than the asteroid that carved Meteor Crater in Arizona thousands of years ago, and much bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. This latest potentially threatening asteroid was discovered in June and spotted again this month. It circles the Sun, but unlike most asteroids that reside in a belt between Mars and Jupiter, the 323-day orbit of 2004 MN4 lies mostly within the orbit of Earth. JPL scientists, and a separate research group in Italy, continually refine the projected orbit as new observations are provided by observatories around the world. Given the limited sightings, they can predict only a general area of space through which 2004 MN4 will pass when it makes what will be, at the least, a close flyby of Earth on April 13, 2029. The odds of an impact by the newly discovered object took astronomers by surprise. "I hadn't expected to see such a high probability of impact -- recognizing that there are still 39 chances in 40 that it won’t impact -- by such a large object in my lifetime," said Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute. Chapman studies asteroids and is a founding member of the B612 group, which promotes the idea of deflecting an asteroid if one is ever found to be on a collision course with our planet. Quiet coverage The lack of media hype surrounding 2004 MN4 has been another pleasant surprise. Dread Factor: Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids Asteroid Scare Prompts NASA to Formalize Response In a handful of memorable instances going back about six years, scientists announced space rocks with long odds of Earth collisions, and media outlets made big headlines of the small data. Sometimes the scientists put the data out to the press in a manner that some considered inflammatory, and other times they were criticized for keeping it largely out of public view. In each case, the impact odds evaporated within hours or days as the orbits were pinned down. But headlines were not typically rewritten, and scientists have grown to worry about alarming the public unnecessarily. With 2004 MN4, Yeomans and his JPL colleagues quietly issued an informational statement on the JPL web site last Thursday and updated it Friday. "We decided long ago that keeping the public and media in the dark was a very bad idea, so we try to maintain a sober assessment on the web site as often as necessary," Yeomans said. "So far the media has shown very good sense on this one. I hope this is due to our maturing ideas on near-Earth objects." 'Highly unusual' Meanwhile, 2004 MN4 is remarkable given current asteroid search technology and the limited funding provided, mostly by NASA. Never has a space rock been found -- after several days of observation -- to have such high odds of collision on such a near-term future date. "I think 2004 MN4 stands as highly unusual in the context of present survey programs," said Alan Harris, senior research scientist at the Space Science Institute in La Canada, Calif. "That may change when we have new surveys." As more detailed searches come online, more asteroids will be found, Harris said via email, but orbit forecasts are expected to be more accurate. Overall, he figures situations like that with 2004 MN4 will occur "somewhat more often, but not nearly in proportion to the increased discovery rate." For now, scientists have plenty to worry about with 2004 MN4. Harris said Arecibo observations, if they come in late January or early February, could "dramatically improve the determination of the orbit, which would change the impact probability estimate greatly one way or the other, most likely -- but not certainly -- downward." http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...te_041227.html
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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12-28-2004, 06:03 AM
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#13 (permalink) |
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Illusionary
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And now.....we are all saved from certain destruction....still, a beer sounds pretty good.
Whew! Asteroid Won't Hit Earth in 2029, Scientists Now Say By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 27 December 2004 08:15 pm ET The world can exhale a collective sigh of relief. A newfound asteroid tagged with the highest warning level ever issued will not strike Earth, scientists said Monday. The giant space rock, named 2004 MN4, was said on Dec. 23 to have an outside shot at hitting the planet on April 13, 2029. The odds climbed as high as 1-in-37, or 2.7 percent, on Monday, Dec. 27. Researchers had flagged the object as one to monitor very carefully. It was the first asteroid to be ranked 4 on the Torino Scale, a Richter-like measure for potentially threatening space rocks. The asteroid is about a quarter mile (400 meters) wide, large enough to cause considerable local or regional damage were it to hit the planet. All along, scientists said additional observations would likely reduce the chance of impact to zero for the April 13 scenario, but they did not expect any significant new data to allow such a downgrading for days or weeks. Instead, old observations provided the data necessary to rule out an impact. Several groups were looking for the asteroid in past observations. Jeff Larsen and Anne Descour of the Spacewatch Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, found very faint images of asteroid 2004 MN4 on archival images dating to March 15 this year. Astronomers already had observations in June and from this month. "An Earth impact on April 13, 2029 can now be ruled out," read a statement issued Monday evening by asteroid experts Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It is not the first time a potentially threatening asteroid has been theoretically defused by looking into the past, pointed out Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute. Most famously, a space rock catalogued as 1997 XF11 was said, in 1998, to be on a collision course before archived data showed it would pass harmlessly. "Past observations can greatly extend the time baseline and strongly influence knowledge of the orbit," Chapman told SPACE.com. "At some level, we are 'lucky' that these earlier sightings were made since 2004 MN4 is usually too faint to be detected by near-Earth-object search telescopes." The difficulty in predicting a precise path earlier in the game owes to knowing only a small section of an asteroid's orbit around the Sun. New observations -- or old ones -- make the known path longer and allow a better prediction of the full path, as well as where an asteroid will be years from now. Orbits change slightly with time because of gravitational tugs by the Sun and planets, among other factors. 2004 MN4 circles the Sun, but unlike most asteroids that reside in a belt between Mars and Jupiter, the 323-day orbit of 2004 MN4 lies mostly within the orbit of Earth. Scientists cannot say that the asteroid will never hit Earth, but there are no serious threats in the foreseeable future. "No subsequent Earth encounters in the 21st century are of any concern," the NASA statement read http://www.space.com/scienceastronom..._B_041227.html
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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12-28-2004, 07:46 PM
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#14 (permalink) |
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Insane
Location: La la land
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I read a story a few days ago about an asteroid that came closer to the earth than some geostationary satelites sit in space, and they didn't see it until it was upon us because it came from the direction of the sun, in a "blind spot". So at least they saw this one you guys were talking about 20+ years out!
Story here: http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...se_041222.html |
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12-28-2004, 08:15 PM
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#15 (permalink) | |
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It's All About The Ass!!
Location: In a pool of mayonnaise!!
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Quote:
Asta!!
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"I love music and it's my parents fault (closing statement)." - Me..quoting myself...from when I said that...On TFP..thats here...Tilted Forum Project  It ain't goodbye, it's see ya later! I'll miss you guys!  - Asta!!
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