ARTelevision

Here comes the sun(storm)

A series of solar eruptions on the sun that began this week prompted electricity generation companies and others to pay closer-than-normal attention to their systems for any signs of service disruptions.
The events on the sun began Oct. 22, according to a statement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center (SEC) in Boulder, Colo., where scientists spotted large amounts of intense solar energy in the form of solar flares heading toward Earth.

Over the next two weeks, electric utility companies, satellite operators and users of high-frequency radio systems -- including jet aircraft and amateur radio enthusiasts -- may be in for sporadic service disruptions as a series of energy-laden flares head toward Earth.

Cell phone and pager communications might also be negatively affected by the naturally-occurring solar activity, but it's more of a problem for high-frequency radio systems, said Mike Weaver, an SEC space weather forecaster. The disruptions are caused by complex magnetic structures, or sunspots, erupting on the sun and sending bursts of energy through space to the Earth, he said.

Strong patterns of solar activity such as this one usually occur during the sun's "maximum," or active period in its 11-year solar cycle, he said. This time, it's happening during a "solar minimum," when activity is traditionally low, Weaver said. The last solar maximum was from 2000 to 2001, and the next one isn't expected until around 2011, he said.

"This is a major event for us for this time of the solar cycle," he said. "It's uncommon."

Barbara McGehan, an SEC spokeswoman, said the agency constantly tracks conditions in space so power companies, businesses, the military and others can be advised of conditions that might affect them. "Our job is to forecast like you'd forecast a hurricane, to let people know," McGehan said.

According to the SEC, the solar activity on Wednesday generated a "coronal mass ejection" that headed toward Earth, bringing with it strong geomagnetic storms that could cause communications disruptions. Additional major eruptions could occur during the next two weeks, the agency said.


Credit: the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
Ray Dotter, a spokesman for Valley Forge, Pa.-based PJM Interconnection, a regional electrical energy transmission organization serving power companies in seven Eastern states, said his group notified its members of the solar activity so they can monitor it.

"The problem for the electric business is that [solar] flares or disturbances can create a current in the ground, which is normally neutral, that can affect large transformers or equipment at generating stations," Dotter said. To prevent problems, generating company operators have to carefully monitor their facilities during solar storms so they can make needed corrections to prevent power grid failures, he said.

For amateur high-frequency radio enthusiasts, the timing of the solar activity couldn't be worse. Tomorrow is the first day of the annual CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest, in which ham radio users around the world compete to contact the largest number of ham radio enthusiasts in a 48-hour period. The solar activity will likely cause problems for the ham operators competing in the contest.

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The dozens of birds, squirrels, and critters that I typically observe from my window were definitely acting stragely today. Communications seemed normative but this is just the start of a couple of weeks of anomalies. Let us know if you notice anything odd going on that you could attribute to this event.

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spived2

I wonder if this affects satellites too because our satellite communications have been very unstable all day today causing a lot of problems for us.

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"This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is it vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished, as the once vital voice of the verisimilitude now venerates what they once vilified. However, this valorous visitation of a by-gone vexation, stands vivified, and has vowed to vanquish these venal and virulent vermin vanguarding vice and vouchsafing the violently vicious and voracious violation of volition. The only verdict is vengeance; a vendetta, held as a votive, not in vain, for the value and veracity of such shall one day vindicate the vigilant and the virtuous. Verily, this vichyssoise of verbiage veers most verbose vis-à-vis an introduction, and so it is my very good honor to meet you and you may call me V." - V

ARTelevision

spived2, yes. that's the kind of thing I'm looking for - thanks!

quote:
"Over the next two weeks, electric utility companies, satellite operators and users of high-frequency radio systems -- including jet aircraft and amateur radio enthusiasts -- may be in for sporadic service disruptions as a series of energy-laden flares head toward Earth."

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spived2

Oops I guess I somehow read right over the satellite part. Thanks for filling us in with the info ART

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"This visage, no mere veneer of vanity, is it vestige of the vox populi, now vacant, vanished, as the once vital voice of the verisimilitude now venerates what they once vilified. However, this valorous visitation of a by-gone vexation, stands vivified, and has vowed to vanquish these venal and virulent vermin vanguarding vice and vouchsafing the violently vicious and voracious violation of volition. The only verdict is vengeance; a vendetta, held as a votive, not in vain, for the value and veracity of such shall one day vindicate the vigilant and the virtuous. Verily, this vichyssoise of verbiage veers most verbose vis-à-vis an introduction, and so it is my very good honor to meet you and you may call me V." - V

cchris

Satellites will get the crap beat out of them if this unusual activity keeps up.
And indeed all methods of global communication.
Coronal mass ejection's of this magnitude don't happen often so soon after the "Max".This indicates that the last cycle was one that didn't follow the general 11 year rule.
While all this may sound like gobbledegook to the average person it should be understood that 11 year cycles have never changed much since the 1700's.

SEE SCALE BELOW.

Sure they seem to be ever increasing,but once a cycle is over,then it's over.

Guess we can't plan around what the Sun's going to do anymore.

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viejo gringo

Maybe, just maybe, I can use that as an excuse when
my wife says I am not listening to what she says...

ARTelevision

here's a story from Reuters today:
Geomagnetic Storm Hits Earth, Tweaking Power Grids
Sat 25 October, 2003 00:45 BST

DENVER (Reuters) - The Earth's magnetic field was bombarded with extra energy from the Sun on Friday when a geomagnetic storm sent charged particles that affected electric utilities, airline communications and satellite navigation systems.

"We predicted it would be a mid-level storm, a G-3, and that's where it is," said Joe Kunches, chief of space weather operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado.

The storm started around 11 a.m. eastern time and is expected to last through the weekend, Kunches said.

Electric utilities and other high-technology users were notified about the storm and no serious problems have been reported.

"We've heard from the power grid operators. They're doing OK, but they're seeing the effects of the storm in their data," Kunches said.

In a G-3 storm, power systems may need to correct voltage.

Communications systems in northern Canada have also seen some impact from the effects of the storm.

During the storm the sun sends more energy toward the Earth than usual. "The earth's magnetic field pulls it in ... and is now trying to balance it," Kunches said.

The effect can be felt worldwide and may even be more intense on the side of the Earth in darkness which is trying to "dump" the extra energy, he said.

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I know birds use geo-magnetism for their flight orientation. I was amazed at the erratic behavior of birds yesterday.

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ARTelevision

Here's an interesting fact:

"The storm, called a "coronal mass ejection," is a mass of solar gas that swept toward Earth at 3.2 million km/h. The usual cycle for such a storm is every 11 years; this one was expected to hit three years ago."

whoa! 3.2 million kilometers per hour! That's a fast mass of solar gas!

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raeanna74

I heard something from the cable company about the sun affecting transmission in this period of time. When they said it, it sounded like it was normal, common and expected. They didn't really explain what was going on.

This was very interesting. Thanks for sharing. We talked about the sun a lot in my last class that I taught. The students got excited and we had fun learning about the amazing power that the sun has. It's really a wonder we've not been destroyed yet and the sun is still so active. Who knows what is in store for us in the future.

Mother nature seems to enjoy throwing us curves just to show us how powerful creation is.

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anleja

Maybe this would explain why the neighborhood squirrels are acting so erratic. It's been years since I've had to slow down my car to avoid hitting one, but lately they have been running all over the road. It is really strange.

TheBrit

anleja, we have run over 2 rabbits in the past week, and had to swerve many times.

cchris

Thanks ART for reminding us that this ball of light is what keeps us all breathing.

Too important in our shrinking world.








Solar power is free but dangerous.



INTERESTING LINK

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jwoody

I first heard of this from Astronomy Picture of the Day.

I've noticed over the last few days there have been more disruptions on my (satellite) TV. I've also heard an eye-witness report of the Aurora being visible in the Scottish Highlands. I'll be there in a few weeks and I hope to get some photos, or at least feast my own eyes on it.

Some astronomers are claiming that timing of the current activity is unusual based on previous data. Considering we have only been seriously observing The Sun for a mere blip in it's lifespan, it would be more accurate to say that nobody has a clue what will happen next and even if we did we couldn't do a thing about it anyway.

Space; The Final Frontier. Bring it on.



The spot in the above picture is approximately the same size as Jupiter. Jupiter is approximately 10 times larger than Earth in diameter.

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cchris

Yes that is so true.( Nobody has a clue that is ).

Can we plan or can we put the sunscreen on?

The choice is ours.

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ARTelevision

just tremendous awesome images, guys - thanks!

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GoldenOuroboros

I am just wondering now if there would be a possible way to 'harvest' the energy from these electrical storms.. possible? I personally haven't noticed anything weird goin on.. But I'm in Australia so I don't know O_o We haven't had any warnings or anything of the sort...

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ARTelevision

UPDATE: 10/27

Sun's gas explosions could hit Earth

JOHN INNES ( from The Scotsman web site )
http://www.news.scotsman.com/scitech.cfm?id=1188612003

BILLIONS of tonnes of superhot gas could be thrown towards the Earth from the sun. On Sunday, two so-called coronal mass ejections blasted material away from large sunspots and may yet deliver a glancing blow to the Earth’s magnetic defences.

BBC Online reported that the surge of charged particles could affect orbiting satellites, as well as ground-based communication and power systems. At the very least, strong auroras may be seen at high latitudes.

What impact the explosions will have on Earth will depend on how much of their force strikes the planet head-on.

Experts say there could be blackouts in some radio frequencies. And while TV and radio stations are much less affected by such conditions, ground-to-air, ship-to-shore and amateur radio systems could be hit.

The increased solar activity is being monitored by mission controllers looking after the International Space Station. The Expedition 7 crew - a Russian cosmonaut, Yuri Malenchenko, and a NASA astronaut Ed Lu - was due to return to Earth in the early hours today, with Spanish astronaut Pedro Duque. But flight officials were confident radiation levels would not prevent the planned de-orbit.

Mike Golightly, from Nasa’s Johnson Space Centre, Houston, Texas, said: "To date, the recent eruptions have not resulted in any additional radiation exposure to the crew."

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Melllvar

It's gonna be one hell of a aurora show. Too bad it's a bit cloudy today. I just hope the weather clears up so I can view them in the late evening/early morning.

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ARTelevision

It's going for a record at this rate!



Sun erupts in biggest storm in years
Earth in path of solar-ejected cloud
By Kate Tobin

Tuesday, October 28, 2003

CNN--One of the largest known solar flares erupted from the sun on Tuesday, heralding a storm of superheated gas that could hit Earth within a day.

The outburst was classified an X17.2 flare, the third largest on record, according to Paal Brekke, a project scientist with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), a sun-watching satellite mission jointly run by NASA and the European Space Agency.

In comparison, two solar storms observed last week were between X1 and X5, Brekke said.

Solar flares are associated with coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, eruptions from the sun that, if headed our way, can disrupt communications satellites and power grids.

As this particularly fast-moving CME is aimed directly toward Earth, it is possible that when it arrives midday Wednesday, the geomagnetic activity will be strong enough to stir up electrical trouble.

"The eruption was positioned perfectly. It's headed straight for us like a freight train," said John Kohl, a Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics scientist, in a statement. "A major geomagnetic storm is bound to happen."

Brekke is not so sure and awaits more data from SOHO and another deep space solar-watching satellite positioned between the sun and Earth.

"Until we know the orientation of the magnetic field in this cloud, we will know who how severe the geomagnetic storm will be."

Northern lights
Interacting with Earth's magnetic field, the high-energy solar winds produced by a CME often increase night displays of the northern and southern lights.

"Not all CMEs trigger auroras. Several, for instance, have swept past Earth in recent days without causing widespread displays," said Tony Phillips of Spaceweather.com, which monitors cosmic conditions related to the sun and Earth.

"It all depends on the orientation of tangled magnetic fields within the electrified cloud of gas. This CME is no exception. It might cause auroras, or it might not. We will find out when it arrives."

Researchers classify solar flares using three categories: C for weak, M for Moderate and X for strong. The largest flare on record, one of two known X20s, occurred on April 2, 2001, but was not directed at Earth.

In March 1989, an X15 burst knocked out power for millions of people in Canada. In recent years, however, satellite and utility operators have devised safeguards that usually minimize damage from solar storms.

Space weather forecasters say this spate of strong solar flares unusual because it is not following normal patterns of solar behavior. The sun follows an 11-year cycle of activity and the last peak took place in 2000.

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jbrooks544

I was just looking into all of this. Today's storm is one of 3 of the largest measured in all history.

Really good story here:

http://msnbc.com/news/984388.asp?0dm=C11MT


Awesome closeup here:
Go to the bottom of this page
http://rednova.com/news/stories/1/20.../story010.html

Under where it says:
"Movies of the Flare:"

Right-click on:
"EIT closeup of flare"
and "save link target as" to your harddrive.

I set up my media player to repeat forever and I played it full screen. WILD BABY!

anyone know more about aurora forecasts?

FYI: I just started a new thread here:
http://tfproject.org/tfp/showthread....threadid=33570

I had more info and I also (mostly) just thought the the nature and magnitude of today's eruption was deserving of a separate thread. I wanted to give everyone a "heads up" for the possible aurora show of a lifetime for many folks. This thread here is great, but the newest and biggest event (today's) is buried at the bottom of 17 other posts than most might not bother to read all the way through.

jwoody

Another time lapse movie of the flare. Not as easy on the eye as some of the previous pics; a slightly more scientific view.


If the GIF won't load then follow this link



Explanation: Yesterday, our Sun produced one of the most powerful solar flares in recorded history. Seen across the electromagnetic spectrum, the Sun briefly became over 100 times brighter in X-rays than normal. Over the next few days, as energetic particles emitted from these regions strike the Earth, satellite communications might be affected and auroras might develop. The flare and resulting CME, emitted from giant sunspot group 10486, was captured above as it happened by the by the LASCO instrument aboard the Sun-orbiting SOHO satellite. The disk of the Sun is covered to accentuate surrounding areas. The time-lapse movie shows the tremendous explosion in frames separated in real time by about 30 minutes each. The frames appear progressively noisier as protons from the CME begin to strike the detector. The SOHO satellite has been put in a temporary safe mode to avoid damage from the solar particle storm.

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troit

Story from CNN.com

Wednesday, October 29, 2003 Posted: 9:24 AM EST (1424 GMT)

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite spies the third most powerful solar flare on record, the bright blip near the sun's middle.


An image taken on Tuesday by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory image shows several giant sunspots crossing the face of the Sun. The most powerful solar flare in 14 years erupted from sunspot 486 early Tuesday, hurling a coronal mass ejection almost directly toward Earth. The solar storm could trigger bright auroras and communications interference when it arrives on Wednesday or Thursday.

Photo Credit: NASA - NASA


DENVER, Colorado (AP) -- Another spectacular eruption on the surface of the sun sent charged particles hurling toward Earth on Wednesday, and scientists said the cloud could significantly disrupt communications on Earth and may even hamper firefighting efforts in California.

"It's headed straight for us like a freight train," said John Kohl, a solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts. "This is the real thing."

In Tokyo, Japan's space agency announced the Kodama communications satellite malfunctioned mode after being affected by the flare. The agency said it was temporarily shut down and would be reactivated after the solar storm subsided.

The explosion of gas and charged particles into space from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere, isn't harmful to people. But it can knock out satellite communications, which some emergency crews are relying on in battling California's wildfires.

Similar solar events in recent years have disrupted television transmissions, GPS navigation, oil pipeline controls and even the flow of electricity along power lines.

Space weather forecasters first warned of that possibility last week, when a previous solar flare erupted, and then they saw a new sunspot region developing in another region of the sun's face.

The cloud of charged particles from last week's eruption struck Earth "with only a glancing blow," Kohl said. It disrupted some airline communications.

But scientists observed one of the three biggest such explosions in 30 years shortly before 6 a.m. EST Tuesday. It produced a particle cloud 13 times larger than Earth and hurtled through the solar system at more than 1 million miles per hour.

The resulting geomagnetic storm could be ranked among the most powerful of its kind and last for 24 hours. It is expected to disrupt the communications satellites and high frequency radios.

In southern California, wildfires already have knocked out many microwave communication antennas on the ground, making satellite communications important to emergency efforts. Researchers said safety personnel might encounter communications interference.

Federal researchers said they already have turned off instruments and taken other precautions with science satellites.

A positive note: strong geomagnetic storms can produce colorful auroras in the night sky visible as far south as Texas and Florida beginning late Wednesday.

Sunspots and solar storms tend to occur in 11-year cycles; the current cycle peaked in late 2000. Scientists compared the latest flare to the "Bastille Day storm" that occurred in July 2000.

"The Bastille Day storm produced considerable disruption to both ground and space high-tech systems," said Bill Murtagh, a space weather forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Another video link here:

javascript:LaunchVideo('/tech/2003/10/29/vo.sun.flare.nasa.','300k')

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jwoody

Aurora in Colorado Skies

Credit & Copyright: Jimmy Westlake (Colorado Mountain College)

Explanation: Vivid auroral displays were triggered by a cloud of high energy particles from the Sun that collided with planet Earth's magnetosphere yesterday, October 29, at about 06:30 Universal Time. The collision was anticipated, following an intense solar flare and coronal mass ejection detected on October 28, and many anxious skywatchers were rewarded with an enjoyable light show. While aurorae don't normally haunt skies in the southern United States, they were reported from locations in Missouri, Texas, New Mexico, and California in the early morning hours. Near Yampa, Colorado astronomer Jimmy Westlake also spent early yesterday morning enjoying the stormy space weather. He was impressed by this colorful apparition of the northern lights -- produced by excited oxygen and nitrogen atoms interacting with energetic electrons at altitudes of 100 kilometers or more. Brighter stars shine through the extreme high-altitude glow which shows much lower clouds and the distant horizon in silhouette.

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Science aside, I wonder what our ancestors thought of auroral displays. In a time when survival was a 24/7 task it must have been quite a relaxing sight to sit down to with the family, chowing down on a barbequed brontosaurus.

tangledweb

Awesome photo, jwoody. We were cloudy and overcast and so couldn't see anything last night.

jwoody

After 11 years of masturbation the Sun has finally had an orgasm.





Explanation: Almost out of view from our fair planet, rotating around the Sun's western edge, giant sunspot region AR 10486 lashed out with another intense solar flare followed by a large coronal mass ejection (CME) on Tuesday, November 4th at about 1950 Universal Time. The flare itself is seen here at the lower right in an extreme ultraviolet image from the sun-staring SOHO spacecraft's EIT camera. Saturating the EIT camera pixels and detectors on other satellites, this giant X-class flare was among the most powerful ever recorded since the 1970s, the third such historic blast from AR 10486 within the last two weeks. While energetic particle radiation from the flare did cause substantial radio interference, the associated CME is not expected to trigger extremely widespread aurorae as it glances off the magnetosphere, unlike the direct hits from last week's CMEs. Say farewell to the mighty AR 10486, for now. For the next two weeks, the sunspot region will be on the Sun's far side.


Astronomy Picture of the Day

Eldaire

Yay.

ARTelevision

Looks like Sol is back on the radar screen again. Seems it's three weeks later and our nearby star hasn't calmed down. The Thursday they're talking about here is Thanksgiving Day:
..............



As the sun acts up, experts see trouble
Anahad O'Connor NYT
Tuesday, November 25, 2003

Flares pose threats close to Earth

BOULDER, Colorado Snapping like rubber bands pulled too tight, tangled magnetic fields on the surface of the sun have been spewing waves of radiation and superheated particles at Earth.

So far, the damage has been relatively minor compared with the significant communications disruptions that occurred three years ago. The culprits this year are three volatile sunspots that began erupting last month. They have set off blackouts in Sweden, damaged satellites and forced some airlines to divert flights away from polar routes to escape extra radiation.

And now, after a three-week lull while the sun's rotation spun them out of view, the sunspots are back within striking distance. The one with the potential to produce the most fireworks, Region 507, is expected to fix its sights squarely on Earth on Thursday. While all three sunspots have decayed a bit, 507 is still roughly eight times as large as Earth.

Predicting the level of havoc that can be brought on by 507 or any other exploding sunspot is a minute-to-minute science. The erratic nature of exploding sunspots leaves researchers with as little as 30 minutes to warn of radiation storms or as much as 17 hours to prepare for speeding clouds of plasma.

And nowhere perhaps is the pressure greater to assess the magnitude of these blasts than within the walls of the Space Environment Center here, home of what could be called the solar storm trackers.

Vivid, up-to-date images of the sun captured by satellites millions of miles away constantly blare across an elevated, oversize television screen demanding the team's attention.

To the forecasters here, every sunspot has its own personality and can be dangerously unruly or quickly fizzle into obscurity.

For the last month, the rotating team of several space weather forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has focused on nothing else, their eyes darting from computer images of the sun flares to e-mail messages and phone calls in an effort to warn thousands of businesses and agencies like utilities, NASA, the military and the airlines of the newest storm ratings.

They also respond to queries and comments from the public that range from the humorous (one woman blamed a flare for a speed-trap radar reading of 90 miles, or 145 kilometers, per hour) to the tragic (some feared that pacemakers would fail in such events). Or those who complain the hair on their arms stands on end. Or that a homing pigeon loses its internal compass in a geomagnetic storm.

Last Thursday, when the sunspots reappeared with a new round of storms, the space forecasters fell back into formation. A locustlike cloud of charged particles shot out of the sun at over 2 million miles per hour, swarming Earth just after midnight.

Standing beside a fortress of computers, William Murtagh, one of the forecasters, described the storm as relatively slow-moving. Still, he brimmed with the satisfaction of knowing that at least for the day, he had tried to mitigate the sun's devastating fury.

"This one we predicted would arrive in 50 hours, and it actually reached us in 46 - so I'd say that's a pretty good job," he noted with a smile. "We expected major to severe geomagnetic storm levels, and that's exactly what we're getting now - right on target."

Those predictions have far-reaching effect.

The storm trackers' alerts prompted power companies throughout North America to switch into "safe mode," to protect any grids from collapse with the heightened currents of a solar storm. All it took to plunge six million people in Quebec into darkness during a storm in March 1989, Murtagh says, was one transformer that overheated and shut down.

The frenetic activity in the forecast center Thursday was only a glimpse of what could come this week, when Regions 507 and 508 stare at Earth. As 508 was rotating away from Earth on Nov. 4, it unleashed a flare that some scientists said was the biggest explosion ever recorded in the solar system.

"It was like being in Miami and seeing a giant hurricane coming toward you that eventually veers off to sea," said Devrie Intrilligator, director of the space plasma laboratory at the Carmel Research Center in Santa Monica, California. "We really lucked out because the full force of it didn't head toward Earth."

When it was tucked away on the backside of the sun, 508 ejected clouds of plasma so enormous that scientists could see them dwarfing the sun in size as they roared off into space. Now it is Region 507 that Murtagh and his team are bracing for. Rivaling Jupiter in size, it has the potential to bathe Earth once again with intense storms that could expose airplane passengers flying around the Thanksgiving holiday to abnormal amounts of radiation.

The last time that happened, in late October, the Federal Aviation Authority warned passengers on aircraft over 25,000 feet, or 7,620 meters, at some latitudes that they would accumulate about two millirems of radiation per hour, or two days' worth of radiation on the ground.

The forecasters can be on 24-hour call at particularly volatile times like these. Murtagh recalled talking to an airline from bed at 11 p.m. one day as the company tried to decide whether to proceed with a flight from Newark, New Jersey, to Beijing the next day.

Now and then, even the forecasters are dumbfounded by the connections people draw between the force of the solar storms and everyday life.

Murtagh said he was reluctant to rule anything out. But, he added, "If someone did a study showing geomagnetic storms affect radar guns, you can be sure the legal system would be flooded with millions of people fighting traffic tickets."

The New York Times

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