gimme a number - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Sion · 07-07-2003, 10:34 PM

specifically, how many advanced civilizations populated by intelligent species exist right now in the entire universe?

mirevolver · 07-07-2003, 10:52 PM

Quote:

The Resturaunt At The End Of The Universe. -By Douglas Adams

The Universe - some information to help you live in it.

POPULATION: None

It is known that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them to be in. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore there is a finite number of inhabitated worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.

That should explain everything for you.

ForgottenKnight · 07-07-2003, 11:04 PM

LOL Great Response Revolver!

The number of intellegent species that exist in the universe at any point is directly proportional to the number of planets in the universe able to support life. Also note that there is an infinate number of stars in the universe. This means the number of stars with planets orbiting them is such a large number, that although finite, can only be called infinate. This implies there is an infinate number of stars with planets able to support life on them... Continue down this chain of philosophical thought a few more times to get to planets with advanced intelligent life, and you have a finite number that is still so large that it can only be comprehended as infinate. Therefore there are an infinate number of advanced civilizations of intelligent species out there right now.

As space traveling species go, consider thAs far is: If we are at our current technology level now, isn't it possible that another species was at our technology level thousands, if not millions, of years ago? Is it not possible that they're all around us, waiting for us to achieve a certain technological level before making first contact with us? Perhaps they are merely waiting for us to become advanced enough to be able make first contact with them first.

YourNeverThere · 07-08-2003, 12:38 AM

face it, the number is 7, or possable 8. You want proof? NO!
P.S. Sion, you are very cool

Sion · 07-08-2003, 01:10 AM

thanks YourNeverThere

funny, I always thought it was 17

Nisses · 07-08-2003, 02:16 AM

NiceGuy: infinite is a nice concept, but it is a comparative term.

infinite is only infinite when it's too big to put in a relative term. So there are definitly no infinite planets able to sustain life.

And have you considered the possibility that they are millions of years behind in technology too? The odds are 50% I'd say

Have you also considered that even with alot of advancement, it may still not be possible to traverse the huge distances, or even to simply *find* other civilisations, since there are such an infinite number of planets.

So I'll go as far as to say 8 planets with life. Why? Cuz it's a nice and symmetric figure

Daval · 07-08-2003, 05:01 AM

42. the answer is 42

warrrreagl · 07-08-2003, 06:26 AM

Carl Sagan popularized Cornell prof Frank Drake's famous equation for calculating the estimated number of advanced civilizations in our universe which have survived technology well enough to begin space exploration.

The interesting dichotomy in that equation concerns UFO's here on earth. If there are millions of advanced technological civilizations out there, then what is happening here on earth is very commonplace across the universe and therefore unworthy of any scientific study from all these UFO's we seem to keep getting.

In order for developments here on earth to be of any major interstellar interest, then that implies that we are rare. And if we are rare, then it would be extremely unlikely that one of the few other advanced technological civilizations would have the blind luck to stumble upon us.

Neither point is a very convincing argument for the people who believe we are being visited frequently from "beyond."

gov135 · 07-08-2003, 06:49 AM

I'm not sure about UFO's.
I don't have the knowledge that some of the respondents above have on the subject.

It just seems to me, that it stands to reason that there is life out there. There are "inhabitable" planets and systems. And if there is life, there is probably an evolution to some sort of defined intelligence.

Whether or not this leads to "advanced civilizations" I don't know. Do we live in an "advanced civilization?" I do believe that if we ever find life elsewhere, it will look like something even Hollywood can't imagine. Different physics, different evolutionary needs, different climates, etc.

Until then, I'll agree with Daval. I second the 42.

Nisses · 07-08-2003, 06:55 AM

Daval: I stand corrected, it is of course 42.

The_Dude · 07-08-2003, 07:19 AM

i think it's 69

vermin · 07-08-2003, 07:23 AM

Define "advanced".
Define "intelligent".

I'd say one (and it aint us).

Charlatan · 07-08-2003, 07:51 AM

Clearly the answer is 42 but what is the question?

oblar · 07-08-2003, 08:10 AM

Charlatan: What is six times nine

MSD · 07-08-2003, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by oblar
Charlatan: What is six times nine

Uh, that would be 54

MikeyChalupa · 07-08-2003, 08:37 AM

Here's the formula...

Quote:

Calculation of Intelligent Civilizations

The very first meeting in modern times to discuss the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence was held by the National Academy of Sciences in November 1961 at Green Bank, West Virginia... Eleven prominent scientists met... to discuss extraterrestrial intelligent life and interstellar communication....

The product of the meeting was a formula to determine the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence. Each variable in the equation is subject to different qualifications, however, and five years after the meeting Dr. Carl Sagan came to a different conclusion from that of this meeting. The two results are compared below:

N=R*fpnefefifcL

N is the number of extant civilizations possessing interest and the capability for interstellar communication.

R* is the mean rate of star formation averaged over the lifetime of the galaxy. The Green Bank (GB) group said this was the total number of stars in the galaxy divided by the lifetime of the galaxy. By their values this was

1010/1010 or 1

Sagan used 1011 as the total number of stars, so his value for R is

1011/1010 or 10

fp is the fraction of stars with planetary systems. GB said the value for this would be either 0.4 or 0.5; Sagan said 1.

ne is the mean number of planets in each planetary system with an environment favorable for the origin of life. Feeling that our sun was unexceptional in this regard for a star of its class, GB said between 1 and 5; Sagan uses 1.

fl is the fraction of suitable planets on which life does develop. Agreeing that life on such planets would be inevitable, both use the value of unity, 1.

fi is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligence accompanied with manipulative ability appears. Here the issue of dolphins arises, for although they are considered by many to be intelligent beings, they have no manipulative ability, and therefore do not fit this equation. Using the same arguments to deduce their answers, GB and Sagan come to different conclusions: the former uses 1 and the latter 10-1.

fc is the fraction of planets on which an advanced technical civilization evolves. Both GB and Sagan adopt a 10-1 value for fc.

L is the lifetime of the technical civilization and the most difficult variable to determine. (The L period of Earth just recently began with the development of the radio telescope, since only then did we become capable of communicating with other civilizations in space).

At Green Bank they considered the two extremes of a civilization destroying itself in less than 1,000 years, or overcoming its crises and lasting almost indefinitely, or more than 100 million years.

For the Green Bank group, then, the lower limit for N would be:

1 X .4 X 1 X 1 X 1 X .1 X 1000 = 40

The upper limit would be

1 X .5 X 5 X 1 X 1 X 1 X .2 X 100,000,000 = 50,000,000.

Sagan chooses the extremes of L less than 100 or greater than 108, assuming an average of 107. His lower limit for N is therefore:

10 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 10-1 X 102 = 10

His upper limit is:

10 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 10-1 X 10 -1 X 107 = 106

Excerpted from Possibility of Intelligent Life Elsewhere in the Universe, Report prepared for the Committee on Science and Technology U.S. House of Representatives, DOC Y 4.SCI 2:94-1-r, 1975. Pages 6-7.

Crap, the subscripts in the formula didn't work too well. Here's the link...

http://www.techtv.com/screensavers/p...321430,00.html

-Mikey

07-07-2003, 10:34 PM	#1 (permalink)
Sion Dumb all over...a little ugly on the side Location: In the room where the giant fire puffer works, and the torture never stops.	gimme a number specifically, how many advanced civilizations populated by intelligent species exist right now in the entire universe? __________________ He's the best, of course, of all the worst. Some wrong been done, he done it first. -fz I jus' want ta thank you...falettinme...be mice elf...agin...

07-07-2003, 11:04 PM	#3 (permalink)
ForgottenKnight Jesus Freak Location: Following the light...	LOL Great Response Revolver! The number of intellegent species that exist in the universe at any point is directly proportional to the number of planets in the universe able to support life. Also note that there is an infinate number of stars in the universe. This means the number of stars with planets orbiting them is such a large number, that although finite, can only be called infinate. This implies there is an infinate number of stars with planets able to support life on them... Continue down this chain of philosophical thought a few more times to get to planets with advanced intelligent life, and you have a finite number that is still so large that it can only be comprehended as infinate. Therefore there are an infinate number of advanced civilizations of intelligent species out there right now. As space traveling species go, consider thAs far is: If we are at our current technology level now, isn't it possible that another species was at our technology level thousands, if not millions, of years ago? Is it not possible that they're all around us, waiting for us to achieve a certain technological level before making first contact with us? Perhaps they are merely waiting for us to become advanced enough to be able make first contact with them first. __________________ "People say I'm strange, does that make me a stranger?" Last edited by ForgottenKnight; 07-07-2003 at 11:25 PM..

07-08-2003, 12:38 AM	#4 (permalink)
YourNeverThere Practical Anarchist Location: Yesterday i woke up stuck in hollywood	face it, the number is 7, or possable 8. You want proof? NO! P.S. Sion, you are very cool __________________ The Above post is a direct quote from Shakespeare Last edited by YourNeverThere; 07-08-2003 at 12:40 AM..

07-08-2003, 01:10 AM	#5 (permalink)
Sion Dumb all over...a little ugly on the side Location: In the room where the giant fire puffer works, and the torture never stops.	thanks YourNeverThere funny, I always thought it was 17 __________________ He's the best, of course, of all the worst. Some wrong been done, he done it first. -fz I jus' want ta thank you...falettinme...be mice elf...agin...

07-08-2003, 02:16 AM	#6 (permalink)
Nisses Shade Location: Belgium	NiceGuy: infinite is a nice concept, but it is a comparative term. infinite is only infinite when it's too big to put in a relative term. So there are definitly no infinite planets able to sustain life. And have you considered the possibility that they are millions of years behind in technology too? The odds are 50% I'd say Have you also considered that even with alot of advancement, it may still not be possible to traverse the huge distances, or even to simply find other civilisations, since there are such an infinite number of planets. So I'll go as far as to say 8 planets with life. Why? Cuz it's a nice and symmetric figure __________________ Moderation should be moderately moderated.

07-08-2003, 05:01 AM	#7 (permalink)
Daval Junkie Location: The True North Strong and Free!	42. the answer is 42 __________________ "It is impossible to obtain a conviction for sodomy from an English jury. Half of them don't believe that it can physically be done, and the other half are doing it." Winston Churchill

07-08-2003, 06:26 AM	#8 (permalink)
warrrreagl pinche vato Location: backwater, Third World, land of cotton	Carl Sagan popularized Cornell prof Frank Drake's famous equation for calculating the estimated number of advanced civilizations in our universe which have survived technology well enough to begin space exploration. The interesting dichotomy in that equation concerns UFO's here on earth. If there are millions of advanced technological civilizations out there, then what is happening here on earth is very commonplace across the universe and therefore unworthy of any scientific study from all these UFO's we seem to keep getting. In order for developments here on earth to be of any major interstellar interest, then that implies that we are rare. And if we are rare, then it would be extremely unlikely that one of the few other advanced technological civilizations would have the blind luck to stumble upon us. Neither point is a very convincing argument for the people who believe we are being visited frequently from "beyond." __________________ Living is easy with eyes closed.

07-08-2003, 06:49 AM	#9 (permalink)
gov135 Junkie Location: Midwest	I'm not sure about UFO's. I don't have the knowledge that some of the respondents above have on the subject. It just seems to me, that it stands to reason that there is life out there. There are "inhabitable" planets and systems. And if there is life, there is probably an evolution to some sort of defined intelligence. Whether or not this leads to "advanced civilizations" I don't know. Do we live in an "advanced civilization?" I do believe that if we ever find life elsewhere, it will look like something even Hollywood can't imagine. Different physics, different evolutionary needs, different climates, etc. Until then, I'll agree with Daval. I second the 42.

07-08-2003, 06:55 AM	#10 (permalink)
Nisses Shade Location: Belgium	Daval: I stand corrected, it is of course 42. __________________ Moderation should be moderately moderated.

07-08-2003, 07:19 AM	#11 (permalink)
The_Dude The GrandDaddy of them all! Location: Austin, TX	i think it's 69 __________________ "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Darrel K Royal

07-08-2003, 07:23 AM	#12 (permalink)
vermin Indifferent to anti-matter Location: Tucson, AZ	Define "advanced". Define "intelligent". I'd say one (and it aint us). __________________ If puns were sausages, this would be the wurst.

07-08-2003, 07:51 AM	#13 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Clearly the answer is 42 but what is the question? __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

07-08-2003, 08:10 AM	#14 (permalink)
oblar Über-Rookie Location: No longer, D.C	Charlatan: What is six times nine __________________ "All that we can do is just survive. .All that we can do to help ourselves is stay alive." - Rush