Swine Flu... worried yet?
 

I have just been reading about the outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico and how it is spreading around the world. The US has just declared a Public Health Emergency (see article below).

Changi Airport started screening all arrivals for fever, something they learned during SARS. So far there are no cases here but chance are it will make it's way into South East Asia. I am moderately concerned at this stage and am monitoring the situation. I am hoping this isn't the outbreak that has been promised time and again by the medical authorities.

How do you feel about all of this?





LINK

I hadn't even heard about it until having received a frantic call from my girlfriend once she found out I was going to a movie theater that's only minutes away from the prep school where the 8 confirmed cases mentioned above were found.

I'm not jumping out of a window over it but this whole business is quite scary.

Flu? Hell, I ate at Denny's today.

Obviously I'm not scared of much.

...

Media hype: the real killer.

interesting, but im not worried either. but if they start coming back to life... i'll be ready

It'll be interesting and possibly scary to see which way this goes. Will it be the beginning of the end? Mother Nature and God finally having enough of us? Or will this fizzle out and be nothing more than a pesky cold bug?

UNLESS, of course it is some man made virus that some secret society made to kill off a certain population. Or a Giant Pharm's way to make huge sums of money.

I'm very skeptical over it at this time. The future will tell all.

If they start using terms like cytokine storm, then I'll get worried.

No, but then Australia is a fairly distant place to where the main outbreak is. I'd suggest the amount of traffic from Mexico to here is fairly limited. I may become worried if it spreads wildly from Mexico...

All depends on how well they hold the border.

What I find truly interesting is that Nova Scotia has cases. That means it's probably hitting the shipping, in which case, there won't be a safe area.

What's the incubation period and how easily is it transmitted? I mean if someone carries it for a few days or a week before showing any symptoms, it could be a serious "The Stand" type disease in a matter of months possibly as little as weeks... if the incubation period is a day or 2 and it's transmitted through bodily fluids such as a sneeze or cough, it could be contained and over soon not affecting that many.

To quote a friend, "if this results in zombies, I'm gonna be SO PISSED."

I am not worried about it but my partner is worried. He is concerned about how it is transmitted.

I think that this flu will end up about as deadly as the bird flu; bad in spots but not an epidemic by any means.

i'm going to invest in a company that sells masks

Believe it or not... an email was just sent to our office that requested that anyone with symptoms (sniffles, cough, sneezing, fever, etc.) must wear a mask.

So far all I'm hearing is pretty shameless fearmongering by media looking for some exciting hype. Nothing about it sounds any different than what they've said for years about avian flu and what they said about SARS. But it sure does make for a good story.

I mean just read the article. They admit they have no idea how dangerous it is or if it's going to be a problem. All we know is that it's made people in Mexico sick and has killed some of them, which the flu does every year. We don't know anything about the people it did kill and the type of medical care they had access to. Really early to be buying biohazard suits and hiding in a basement.

From what I understand, the serotype of this virus appears to be a combination of DNA from human, swine, and bird flu. They're really not sure quite how dangerous it actually is nor how it is being spread.. and no one really understands why cases in Mexico are severe while those elsewhere seem to be pretty mild.

Also, like some previous flu epidemics, this flu appears to attack the "young and healthy" (young adults) disproportionately. That sort of worries me.

However, I am probably going to be pursuing a degree in public health (possibly veterinary public health), so this really interests me. I would like to specialize in epidemiology, so I'm reading as much about this as I can.. while also being a little worried about it.

They are saying we should wait 72 hours to see how this develops. As I understand it the concern is that it has jumped the human/animal barrier and that those who have been coming down with it have been getting it human to human (i.e. they haven't been in contact with contaminated animals).

Previous bird flu outbreaks have been strictly animal to human.

It's interesting to see how fast it has spread already, geographically speaking.

Wash your hands, a lot! It really works!

It's all media hype. Let me repeat that: IT'S ALL MEDIA HYPE.

I had Swine Flu the other day and I am doing jus... BRAINS!

http://imagecache.allposters.com/ima...ie-Posters.jpg

I find that it's healthier not to worry about things that are out of my control.

considering that normal flu kills tens of thousands every year, this version has a long way to go before i start paying attention to it.

I recently finished reading The Stand, so it's a little creepy, but I'm not particularly worried about it.

If anyone's interested, there's an H1N1 map here on google maps: H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps

22 posts and no one's moving to Madagascar? Internet, you have failed me.

I'm mildly worried because I fly so much (10 flights scheduled in the next 5 weeks but that's going to go up significantly by the end of this week). I'm not worried about myself so much as I am about bringing something back that could make the boys sick. I'll be taking the usual handwashing precaution as well as trying to eat better.

We're visiting relatives in California the first couple of weekends in May, flying through LAX. We're getting flu shots before we go. We don't want to take any chances. I'm worried about our friend who lives in Mexico City.

Thanks for that link, Pony. It's super handy. Hm. Anyone else find it slightly humorous that Africa has no cases? The continent that is plagued with sweeping epidemic levels of Malaria and AIDS isn't touched by the flu.

Not too concerned, yet. What looks like over reaction is probably appropriate in order to keep it from becoming much worse. Pandemic planning has advanced so much in the past decade that this is just an initial step in containment efforts. Now, if its still expanding its reach in the next couple of months, then yes I'll be concerned.

Four or five years ago I came down with a respiratory flu while in San Francisco on business. The hotel sent me to a local Dr. His 'hobby' was studying pandemics. He recited several statistics that pointed to the world being overdue for a pandemic. He was very concerned that the bird fly would extend beyond Asia. He prescribed Tamiflu to me. As close to a wonder drug as I've ever had. Within 24 hours I was unbelievably better. I understand for Tamilfu to be effective it must be administered soon before the fly sets in. In my case, it was.

I too find the entire thing fascinating. I have been interested in epidemiology and public health for a long time, so I'm curious to see 1) how this spreads, and 2) how our public health system reacts to it.

I'm not worried yet, though the fact that young people are coming down with this illness is a concern. The CDC does good work, and we're a lot more prepared for a flu pandemic now than we were in 1918, obviously. However, one thing we do have to consider is just how quickly this can move around the globe in these days of international travel.

About the young & healthy death issue....

Isn't it because it's the sort of thing that turns your immune system against you? ie., if you have a strong immune system, it will kick the shit out of you.

That's pretty scary.

That means sneeze or cough into your elbow(sleeve) or a tissue, people!!!
I can't believe the number of people I still see using their bare hands to cover then, thinking they're ok, wipe their hands on their pants.:mad:

I'm hoping it doesn't get to my kids' schools-I get pneumonia if I catch the flu.

:hyper::hyper::hyper::hyper::hyper::hyper:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...s/airborne.jpg
BAM!

When I heard the reports of this last week, it brought back memories of 1976 when my father and I stood in line at our local shopping mall to receive the Swine Flu vaccine. It was a scary time then and a scary time now. This is a link to an article concerning the 1976 scare. It is quite interesting if you don't know anything about it. (My father and I suffered no negative results of taking the vaccine)

Medical News: Is This Swine Flu a Case of Déjà Vu?

Wash your hands. Be diligent. Officials are saying they won't know until Friday how this is really going to effect us.

Remember during the stimulus bill debates, when a section containing $420M for pandemic flu prevention were removed after Republicans screamed "pork"? The response to SARS is what prevented a pandemic and had H5N1 spread human-to-human, the preparation for a response would have limited its scope. This was extremely short-sighted.
Michael Savage has already assured his listeners that this was engineered by al-Qaeda. I'm sure his faith in homeopathy will keep him safe, though.
I have bad news for you. The deaths in Mexico were in the 20-40 age group. There are two likely causes for that. the first is that people in that age group are the most social and likely to have close contact. The second is cytokine storms. Nothing official yet, but I get the feeling we'll be hearing conclusive results tomorrow.

It's also worth noting that after new studies, some are proposing that the reason 1918 was so deadly was secondary pneumonia infections rather than CSs, but that's going to take a lot more research before anything conclusive comes out.
Unfortunately, CDC estimates as of Saturday had the effectiveness of this year's flu shot against this strain as being low. They did say that it might help, especially if the virus mutates, so there's no reason not to get it.

Good memory.

This is so odd...


I was never worried about mad cow... and I'm not at all worried about swine flu...



Call me when Sheep AIDS starts to spread.

HA!

I am concerned about horse herpes.

I already have horse herpes.



Shit got really weird during Spring Break in Cancun last year... I don't really wanna get into it.

Wow, I would have thought that the chicken clamydia would cancel that out. I just learned something. Thanks, World's King! You're the best!

Republican's can't catch a break.... The fact that they successfully opposed funding to help prevent a pandemic of the swine flu months ago will haunt them.

Funnily enough, though, I lived in England during the mad cow crisis, and now I'm not allowed to donate blood!

hey dont forget that the middle east remains untouched by the swine flu too!

must be the whole muslim/jewish thing keeping it from reaching here.

i wonder if they'd start slaughtering people if people started getting it here... ok bad joke, but im allowed to say it..right?

seriously though, im not too fussed..except that i may be in mexico in a few months. maybe a change of plans...we'll see

I think you're a little too excited about a zombie attack.


Then again, maybe you're prepared. I am not. I realized this today.

It's important to be prepared for certain events: nuclear holocaust, the rise of the machines, and zombies.

I have no doubt that Crompsin is prepared for any of those possibilities.

snowy..snowy snowy..tsk tsk tsk

crompsin IS a machine from the future.

I'm a little worried, but only because I have kids. Its amazing how much having kids changes your concerns.

not worried, not caring,
denial is a wonderful thing......

I don't know how they do it, but xkcd always gets a laugh out of me:
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/swine_flu.png

Quote of the day:

"We will call it Mexico flu. We won't call it swine flu."

-YAKOV LITZMAN, Israel's Deputy Health Minister, on the country's decision to rename the flu outbreak because of kosher dietary laws.

:eek: My tail is curlin'...

One of my coworkers is going to Mexico for vacation tomorrow. Should he come back with the sniffles, I'll be concerned.

The precautions have been enacted in most of the airports in Asia. Just read this morning that Hong Kong and the Philippines have thermal sensors on all arrivals to the country. As I said above, Changi airport has been screening as well.

SARS hit this part of the world quite hard. Their economies were greatly affected. In the current economic situation, that could be disastrous.

I think Mexico, already in a tough spot will crushed. The repercussions will be felt for years to come.

It's the end of the human race.

Now the dolphins take over.

K. My buddy in Mexico City is terrified. Between an earthquake and the outbreak of the swine flu, he is done with that city. He's moving back to the US. Apparently there's quite a hysterical fear there among the residents.

The big question is, are they actually reporting what is really going on there?

http://nbcsportsmedia4.msnbc.com/j/M...7p.hmedium.jpg
http://media.sacbee.com/smedia/2009/...ffiliate.4.jpg
Swine flu leaves Mexican soccer stadiums empty | CharlotteObserver.com


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

Here are some stories from people in Mexico. It would be interesting to see if the US government/military would be able to control the people like this, or if the people are acting in their own self-preservation and choosing not to travel or congregate around others. Maybe we need this to thin out those people here in the US that don't listen to warnings and protests things the government recommends.

Then again, is it a slow news day and they are hyping up this to have something to talk about? Or will the CDC, WHO and other government and public/private companies be able to stop this before it gets really bad?

Is twitter causing people to repeat the same false news or made up events over and over again? How do you know it is real? How do you know it isn't?
Swine flu: Twitter's power to misinform - By Evgeny Morozov | Net Effect

Should the people start worrying? Are we 8 months too soon, that is my fear, that this will spread slowing around the globe, until temperatures are below 60 outside and airborne transmission becomes much easier. But, then again, the regular flu was bad this year and it didn't reach really high levels here until last month.

----------------------------------

I'm worried about the Virus X type outbreak as well. A virus you get and can transmit to others through the air for 14 to 28 days before coming down with any symptoms, but then you have a high probability of dying would be really bad.

I should probably watch 'The Stand' again. There are some other good movies, but I'm not sure how realistic some of them are.

--------------------------------------------

I'm not sure the current flu shot will do anything. I'm sure they are working on trying to come up with a vaccine for next winter right now, but the US got rid of a lot of our vaccine labs (due to lawsuits and not as much profit compared to daily drugs)

-----------------------------------

As for me, I am watching it, and I think if there are hundreds or thousands of deaths in the US, I will have to start staying away from people and raise my biohazard level. And if there is a full blown pandemic, I have no problems wearing my bio suit to the grocery store or other places. I do need to stockpile some canned food and drinking water though. And I probably should get some more duct tape, bleach and clear plastic if I need to seal up my windows and make an airlock in the front entryway of my house. Then again, I may be better off moving someplace else, but I'm not sure I have a good 'Into The Wild' type plan anymore to get away from the rioting mobs and violent anarchists.

I wonder if this could be the Captain Trips virus? Captain Trips - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Evil people start moving toward Vegas. Good people will be found in Colorado.)

Every time I hear the word "pandemic" I keep thinking about Danny Devito's character in "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" when they're running around Chinatown looking for something newsworthy.

"Let's get the scoop about the latest paaaandemikk!"

I got the feeling that the young people bit was just a statistical fluke. ie that it was a bunch of traveling students who got sick first or something (?)

ill be grabbing the popcorn and a copy of Outbreak with dustin hoffman and renee russo and watching it tonight.

i seriously think that this is all overdone. the media is having a field day...or month.

i loved 'the stand', but to be blunt i cant remember where colorado is on the map, guess im going to vegas

You can track it spread here. Interesting to see the updates over the last 48 hours

H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps

nine - I posted that link in post #21 on the first page of the thread. :P There are quite a few more pointers on the map now, though.

Sorry. I did a quick scan to see if it had been posted. But obviously missed it.

My life for YOU!
http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/4...9677-large.jpg

Those are kids who go to a private school and went on a trip to Mexicio, so I wouldn't say it has hit 'the shipping' yet. Not that you'll see this or anything, ..........
Swine flu symptoms spreading beyond Windsor, N.S., campus
Health officials confirm 6 cases of swine flu in Canada

I am concerned, saddened, and angry.

People that continue to rely on faux-news, cable programs,
are going to receive a dribble of real news, laced with the usual heavy dose of fear,
hype, and pretty graphics.

There are reliable sources available that hopefully folks will utilize,
to help dispel rumors and general ignorance about how this virus is transmitted.
( some people are truly afraid to eat a pork chop)

There are studies being done regarding the practice of raising animals
for consumption, ( the massive production farms, poultry, swine, etc.)
It is unwise, in my opinion, to have that many 'livestock', in such concentration.
(perhaps another thread for this)


Accidents do happen:
Baxter International, did ship some Avian Flu vaccine, that contained live H5N1.

Fortunately, it was tested before distribution.

my question is, how lethal is it?

if a hundred and something mexicans have died, but only 1 american who has it has died, is there something we're missing here?

are the immune systems different? i'd guess not.

are the health systems different? hell yeah!

i'd say this is a bad case of mexico not being able to manage its health service properly.

many people die from the flue every year, im still not seeing the big hoo-haa yet

Mexico, at least population centers, has a decent healthcare system. The problem is that they were the first hit, and authorities did nothing because it seemed like just another cluster of flu cases. Then young people started dying, likely because they are the age group who congregates most freely in public places with large groups of people, and speculation is flying that cytokine storms may be playing a part and younger people in the US (high school rather than mid-20s) are the first known cases. If it is a cytokine-storm-inducing flu, we have a lot to worry about. If not, we have mass hysteria to worry about and relatively healthy people will clog our ERs and tie up medical resources that should go to people who need antivirals and IV corticosteroids to keep them alive.

Most likely source of the Nova Scotia cases are tourists who returned from Mexico. Same with NZ.

---------- Post added at 12:25 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

shades of Neville Shute (On The Beach)....

WHO reckon it has about 1 - 4% kill rate.... hardly Captain Trips.

Hey has all the ingredients: inspires irrational fears, has people wanting government to help, is spreading fast and sells newspapers/gets people to watch the news..... It's a money maker.

I rate it a 7 tho Dick.... the beat is very nice but I can't dance to it.

I would just like everyone to know that I'm eating a turkey club sandwich right now.


I figure if Swine Flu has traces of the Avian Flu... I might as well eat pig and bird at the same time.





OMG PANIC!!!

I just sent one of my assistants home. She's married to a cop.






Dammit, it was funny in my head!

I cannot deny following the news with a certain sense of nervousness... but things like this have happened before (flu pandemics) and I think we are better placed than ever to try and deal with it and minimise the damage done. Its important to keep in mind as well no one outside Mexico has been seriously ill yet.

Or it's like 1918 again - where people in the prime of life were the ones who dropped in the largest numbers!

Too soon to say.

It has now officially spread to the middle east and Asia and WHO says there is no way to contain it.

That said, the urgency here seems to be that it is spreading a lot faster than other Type A flus. The good news is that it isn't appearing to be as deadly as first feared (so far it is less fatal than SARS) and the safeguards put in place for early detection appear to be working.

I am convinced there is cause for concern but not for panic.

I've heard that the "experts" will know better by Friday how this might play out.

I'm on the fence on this one. While I certainly understand the media's need to keep us in a state of fear, I can also remember how everyone thought that all the hand-wringing every hurricane season about New Orleans was over-hyped. Then Katrina happened.

Funny how being unemployed has a silver lining - the only time I'm out in public is to go to the grocery store. I carry a small bottle of Purel with me and use it after touching anything.

Oh - more good news - pork is on sale this week!

It could be that there is a co-infection - specific to Mexico - working in conjunction with the influenza to make it more deadly in Mexico itself, and without that co-infection it won't be so deadly in the rest of the world, but only time will tell.

As for the travel restrictions - meh, in 1918, with much more limited travel, 40 million died, including in the world's most remote communities in Alaska, Africa, India, etc. I question how much such travel restrictions will help.

Where's Tully in all of this and when shall we burn Pig at the stake in a fit of hysteria?

maybe its not as bad as first thought..

charlatan, where in the ME has it spread to? im yet to hear any news on it here

In 1918, there was limited travel but it was exacerbated by soldiers returning from WW1. They were travelling from populated areas to just about every corner of the Western world.

---------- Post added at 11:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:01 AM ----------

dlish... there is a confirmed case in Israel.

That amount of movement is fractional - really fractional - compared with today's day to day movement of people. The only thing the war did was mimic what happens in heavily populated places today like Guandong, Mexico City, etc - bring a lot of people (soldiers in regiments) into a densely packed area making transmission easier within that community, creating a critical mass of infected persons.

U.S. confirms swine flu-related death in Texas
 

CTV.ca | U.S. confirms swine flu-related death in Texas

The kid was Mexican, but he had been receiving treatment in Texas, as he was visiting there with relatives.

First death in my state reported, Arizona. Killed a 2 year old :(

I just heard on my noon news about the child that died here. That's interesting Baraka that he was actually from Mexico. Yesterday they announced a woman in my county here in Michigan is a probable case. I am nervous about this and the rapid pace it seems to be spreading with travel.

I am mostly afraid because my husband is supposed to be going to Mexico City for work in a little over a week. He's the only person not laid off that can do the work for the Mexican Co. so he has to go. His Co. did say that they are going to play it by ear and if things look to be getting worse there, they may tell the other Co. they have to postpone the trip. I really hope they do, I worry enough about Hubby when he's traveling.


M-O-O-N spells "swine flu".:)

Update: WHO says there are only 7 deaths and 79 confirmed cases
Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO | smh.com.au

Only 7 total? Including Mexicans?

Seems like some people have their signals crossed.

Or the media decided they needed a non-political story to get some ratings, because this is not adding up.

All of this is sensationalist bullshit.

I'm thinking that this is a good time to stock my freezer with pig.

And yes, I am an opportunistic bastard.

Not exactly; not all of it.

It should be noted that the discrepancy between the WHO numbers and other numbers is one of officiousness. WHO has "officially" confirmed their numbers in labs. This suggests the number of fatalities will likely increase, especially if the "reported" deaths in Mexico haven't been "officially" investigated by WHO.

While I agree we shouldn't sensationalize or panic over this, I also wouldn't underestimate something that has the very real potential to kill tens of thousands in the U.S. alone, just as it had at least twice in the past 50 years.

Yeah, it's the same with AIDS. Not all deaths are subjected to rigourous post-mortem analysis, especially in developing nations, but when someone dies they may simply look at the symptoms that person had prior to death and ascribe the death to a particular (and likely) cause. Without really good lab testing, we can't always say with 100% accuracy what killed the person, we just identify the most likely candidate.

the back tracking begins eh...

only 7 now? i knew the media was having a field day..either that or the politicians want to stop people worrying about it and are downlplaying the situation

WHO raises pandemic alert to second-highest level - CNN.com
The previous report seems to be full of shit. Pandemic level raised to 5.

Also, Ron Paul is still around? I was kind of hoping he'd crawl back into his cave after the election

I'm just curious. How is this different than the normal flu? Why don't we have a level 5 pandemic every year when that comes around? So far this seems like a flu that's hitting out of season and got spread to a lot of places due to bad holiday timing. I mean people are likely to get sick, but the fatality rate of Mexico (whether it's 7 or 150) seems far off compared to what it's doing to anyone else.

Granted, it's off season, which generally is worse in terms of what doctors are prepared to deal with and in terms of the fact that people are out and about more than during "normal" flu season, but this is kind of silly.

I think its different from a normal flu because the age demographics of mortality are different from a normal flu. A normal flu kills mostly young and old, and this swine flu is killing people with usually healthy immune sytstems aged 20-40.

I have no intentions of freaking out. I'm actually more worried about the two unrelated cases of chicken pox I was exposed to in the past three weeks and the kid who developed MRSA in her pox (poor kid!), the ORSA, PCP, and hospital superbugs floating aroudn daily at my job.
I actually walk around singing Blue Monster much of the time...



I'm going the Winchestaaaahhhhh.........

There are approximately 63730 deaths per year in the United States alone from Flu and Pneumonia. This is only interesting because it is a slightly different strain, I think combining Human, Bird and Pig flu. I am thinking of this no differently that I think about regular Influenza or any other ailment. This is just the popular thing to talk about at the the current time because it's something brand new and shiny that the news has latched on to.

The question will be, did the steps taken by the WHO, CDC, and other agencies prevent real wide-spread outbreak? Did modern medicine prevent the large numbers of deaths since it can be treated with Tamiflu?

And, maybe individual people even helped stopped the transmission of it.

Then again, I'll wait until next winter to see if this mutates or anything.

Except that virtually all of the cases in the US and the only death follow that normal pattern. The large number of unconfirmed cases in Mexico follows the dangerous "young and healthy" trend, but it's been very hard to tell how reliable those are right now.

Rebel!

That's how I feel about it.

OMG WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

Everyone PANIC!!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!