What does DOW below 7,000 mean to you? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Cynthetiq · 03-02-2009, 08:31 AM

Quote:

View: Dow Below 7,000 for the First Time Since 1997
Source: Nytimes
posted with the TFP thread generator

Dow Below 7,000 for the First Time Since 1997
March 3, 2009
Dow Below 7,000 for the First Time Since 1997
By DAVID JOLLY and BETTINA WASSENER

The Dow Jones industrial average continued is decline Monday, falling below 7,000 for first time since October 1997.

Shares declined on renewed concern about financial institutions, including the insurance giant, American International Group, and the banking giant, Citigroup. The government on Monday morning agreed to provide another $30 billion to A.I.G., which also reported a $61.7 billion loss. On Friday, Washington took a larger stake in Citigroup.

After about an hour, the Dow was down 154 points or 2.2 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index declined 2.4 percent, but remained about the 700 mark. The Nasdaq fell 1.8 percent.

Bank shares continued to lead the decline with Bank of America down 12.1 percent, Citigroup down 5.3 percent and JPMorgan Chase 4.3 percent. The S.&P. financial sector was down 4.6 percent overall. The industrial sector had fallen 3.8 percent.

Shares of A.I.G. were 14.9 percent higher on the strength of the latest government assistance.

Crude oil was down $3.74, to $41.02 in New York trading.

Wall Street followed both Europe and Asia lower. In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, slid 3.4 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London dropped 3.9 percent. The CAC 40 in Paris fell 3.3 percent and the DAX in Frankfurt fell 2.6 percent.

The Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 3.8 percent, while the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney shed 2.8 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dropped 3.9 percent.

Financial institutions were again the big losers. BNP Paribas fell 8.5 percent, Royal Bank of Scotland fell 11.6 percent and UBS fell 8 percent in Europe, while Mitsubishi UFJ fell 6.9 percent and Mizuho Financial Group 3.7 percent in Tokyo after the American government moved to take a larger stake in the ailing banking giant Citigroup and the Treasury and Federal Reserve said they would give an additional $30 billion in taxpayer money to A.I.G.

HSBC Holdings, the global British bank, fell 20 percent after saying it would seek to raise nearly $18 billion in new capital from shareholders and shut down its American consumer lending business.

“It’s pretty despondent everywhere,” said Dwyfor Evans, a strategist at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. “O.K., there are signs that some of the leading indicators have stabilized to some extent, but it’s at a very, very low level, and we’re not seeing corporate investment picking up, or consumers starting to spend again — in other words, the traditional mechanisms by which economies come out of a recession are absent at this time.”

Economic data and company earnings in recent weeks have eroded hopes that a gradual recovery would start to materialize during the second half of the year. If, as seems increasingly likely, a tangible recovery will not come until 2010 at the earliest, Mr. Evans said, “that means corporate earnings will remain extremely soft for quite some time.”

“And that in turn means it’s pretty clear that there is more value to be had in safe havens like bonds than in equities,” he added.

Economic data from Europe added to the dismal atmosphere in the market. The Markit euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index sank in February to a record low of 33.5 from 34.4 in January.

On Monday, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said in a statement that auto sales in February declined 32.4 percent, the seventh consecutive monthly decline.

Japan last week reported that exports in January declined by nearly half from a year ago, while South Korea on Monday released data for February — the first in the region to issue data for that month — showing a 17 percent plunge in exports.

Data released Friday showed gross domestic product in the United States fell at an annualized rate of 6.2 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008, the steepest decline since the 1982 recession, suggesting a deeper downturn that will in turn further challenge the battered financial system.

To me it means very little, since it isn't real money. It's just as fake as the rest of the money that people used to leverage businesses and lifestyles.

I have had friends make claims to me like, "I've lost $50,000 in the market!" I ask them the simple question, "Did you sell your holdings?" The response is always, "No, but the value of them... it dropped like a rock!"

Well yes, that's true, but until you've actually sold your stocks, you've not made or lost any money. Until you've converted it into money, it is just a marker like any bet.

When the dot com bubble burst driving the first wave of DOW pushing upwards and the economists and government all wanted to suspend the cycle, I wasn't a fan of their finagling.

What does this signal to you? Does it mean anything to you?

Lasereth · 03-02-2009, 08:42 AM

Everytime it drops all I think about is how funny it is that a group of people are sitting around a bunch of monitors in the middle of NYC on their phones contemplating whether or not this will be a good stock day. If they think it will, it is a good day. If they think it won't, it won't. It's quite comical!!!!!

Grancey · 03-02-2009, 09:11 AM

I don't really follow the DOW at all. It's just numbers to me. I do own stock in my local bank, which is one of the top 200 community banks in the country. During the current economic crisis this bank has had solid earnings and doube-digit loan growth. I follow the quarterly reports. I could never handle this daily nightmare stuff.

Baraka_Guru · 03-02-2009, 09:22 AM

To me it means there are a lot of good deals out there right now.

RogueGypsy · 03-02-2009, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

To me it means there are a lot of good deals out there right now.

Ditto! It's like a sale at my favorite store. 50% off, everything must go! WoooHOOO.

crewsor · 03-02-2009, 09:30 AM

To me, it means the money going into my 401 K each week is buying me more for less. Unless the market tanks for good, which is highly unlikely, times like these are where you make your best earnings long term.

ratbastid · 03-02-2009, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cynthetiq

When the dot com bubble burst driving the first wave of DOW pushing upwards and the economists and government all wanted to suspend the cycle, I wasn't a fan of their finagling.

Yep. Remember when the winning business strategy was to put together a company that would make money from venture capital and IPO, rather than from customers? That was so weird.

dksuddeth · 03-02-2009, 10:09 AM

market correction. The fake inflated money value is finally coming back to normal. Maybe this time, gov and business will realize it's about product quality and service, not quantity and replacement costs.

Baraka_Guru · 03-02-2009, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dksuddeth

Maybe this time, gov and business will realize it's about product quality and service, not quantity and replacement costs.

And maybe this time investors will keep their emotions in check.

Strange Famous · 03-02-2009, 11:21 AM

capitalism is failing.

The revolution is coming comrades!

braisler · 03-02-2009, 12:06 PM

Everything is on sale!

Seriously! That is exactly what the DOW below 7000 means to me. I'm looking for solid companies that have good balance sheets and have been dragged down with the rest of the market. Ebay, Microsoft, Eli Lilly are all at great prices right now. Do you really think that they are going under? Not really likely. I won't be buying GM or Citi right now, but there are some great deals in lots of other areas of the market.

I've got my 403b on auto-pilot of course, so it is buying me dollar cost average shares in 3 Fidelity mutual funds while the market is down. Sure, it is tough to look at the balance in that account and see that it has gone down from 2 years ago despite putting in more cash each month. But, if I look over to the column for number of shares bought for each transaction, I'm buying nearly double the number of shares each month this year as I was at this time last year. I'm also taking any extra money that I can get together and working to find good stocks to buy in my brokerage account.

ratbastid · 03-02-2009, 12:30 PM

The responses on this thread are interesting. Who thinks we're in for a bargain-seeking bounce soon?

Cynthetiq · 03-02-2009, 12:47 PM

I agree it's a bargain hunt for those with the stomach and fortitude to do so. If I had not bought a foreclosure last year, maybe I'd have used some of that capital to buy some bargains. I'm not a stock guy, at least not yet. Funds I've got the stomach for, but regular stocks, I'd rather play in Vegas.

braisler · 03-02-2009, 12:59 PM

Funds typically under-perform the market. They are pretty much guaranteed to under-perform based on the way that they are structured (they have to hold a certain number of stocks, used to be 30+ but I haven't kept track, the size of their transactions are cumbersome, they have certain regulatory restrictions on how they can enter or exit positions). If you are willing to put in a little bit of effort educating yourself about what makes a good company perform well, then you can pick good stocks and do well for yourself. I sold a good bit of my portfolio to put in a larger down-payment on our current house and to pay for remodeling costs a few years ago. Because of that, I haven't been as active in tracking the market as I once was. But, with this current downturn, I'm shifting my attentions back in that direction. Some people like to go shopping for shoes when there is a big sale. That's how I feel about the stock market right now.

I don't think that there will be a bargain-hunters bounce in the short-term. Too many people are too frightened and already depressed in their holdings to want to push more cash at a falling market. I'm looking for solid companies at a discount, and dividend paying companies that have enough cash on hand and revenue stream to continue to pay out without cutting in the near future.

ColonelSpecial · 03-02-2009, 02:15 PM

I think that 12 years isn't very long. That is how long it has been since the DOW was this low. I have found that most things are cyclical, the stock market included. We are hurting right now and the DOW is showing that but soon we will be building back up and we will forget about this dip, until it happens again.

dksuddeth · 03-02-2009, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strange Famous

The revolution is coming comrades!

I wouldn't wish for this too hard. One revolution is bound to bring others.

---------- Post added at 04:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:51 PM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ratbastid

The responses on this thread are interesting. Who thinks we're in for a bargain-seeking bounce soon?

I do, and I hope i have enough spare change to grab even a small chunk to ride the way up on.

soma · 03-02-2009, 05:21 PM

It's scary knowing that the value of so many companies has halved from a few summers ago. Do you all remember when we hit 14,000? That number seems SOOOOOOOOOOOOO distant now.

BadNick · 03-02-2009, 05:34 PM

If I had to retire now, my 401k would only be worth about 70% of what it was last year. Hopefully I can build it back up by buying in now and riding it out a few more years.

ASU2003 · 03-02-2009, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dksuddeth

market correction. The fake inflated money value is finally coming back to normal. Maybe this time, gov and business will realize it's about product quality and service, not quantity and replacement costs.

I agree with this. The market should have been at most 10,000.

Now certain companies have lost costumers and revenue, but some are still good and doing business like normal.

I think this should have happened 4-5 years ago, but the Fed kept lowering rates (which was a way of cheating instead of fixing the underlying problem). A certain political party with donors that didn't want to pay taxes were probably pushing for a policy that devalued the dollar (takes more dollars to buy anything, including stocks/houses), and were letting the market do pretty much whatever it wanted to.

I will say, that for me, I am better off, since I get to buy more stock at a lower price then if I had to pay the inflated price. Even if the market doesn't go back up quickly, I still have a long time before I need that money. I didn't lose too much however.

ChrisJericho · 03-02-2009, 11:58 PM

We are still likely overpriced and will go lower, probably 600-650 on the SPX.

tisonlyi · 03-03-2009, 12:38 AM

There's a long, long way to go yet.

As for the stability in 'indicators' (which are only indicators until they don't work anymore), pshah. Horse.

If you're looking for a bounce, don't go thinking it'll last too long. P/E at the end of a standard bear market are much lower than they are right now.

[Oh, and just think, these comparisons with 10-15 years ago levels on Dow and S&P... The dollar is worth about 50-75% of its purchasing power back then, depending on whose stats you look at... Interesting.]

Aladdin Sane · 03-03-2009, 05:48 AM

It means my 401K is worth 50% of its value one year ago. It is now worth less than I've invested over the last 20 years.

Meanwhile, I've been hit with a huge tax bill because I was self employed for most of 2008. The government takes the money I worked my ass off for and hands it over to deadbeats on main street and wall street.

There's going to be a revolution alright.

Paq · 03-03-2009, 08:08 AM

not to be too jaded here, but if yo'ure saying "O, the blue chips" or "strong companies" are going to be fine....just remember that 10+ yrs ago, those companies were GM, F, GE, BSC, LEH, MER, MS, GS, BAC, WFC, PG(which is just back to 1997 levels, not nearly as bad as the others), T(same case), pfe, vz...

Well, let's just say that half of those would mean you're bankrupt right now and the other half mean you lost 10-15 yrs of growth...which is half of the time most people spend saving for retirement (most don't start til 30-35, unfortunately).

So, while things are cheaper...normally they are cheaper for a reason.

But, if you want a fund and you're worried that funds underperform the market, then buy the index etfs, Spy, iwm, qqqq, dia, etc. Why fight the market, you know? I'm wtih jericho, though, this probably has another 10% to fall

Baraka_Guru · 03-05-2009, 07:02 AM

So the DOW is below 7,000, and now Warren Buffett has weighed in:

Quote:

Dow below 7000 on Buffett’s dire warning
Stephen Gunnion
Iconic investor’s ‘shambles’ remark rattles markets hit by AIG, HSBC losses
Markets Editor

WALL Street’s Dow Jones index plunged below the 7000 level for the first time since October 1997 yesterday, after US insurer American International Group (AIG) reported a record $61,7bn loss for the fourth quarter of last year and billionaire investor Warren Buffett said the US economy would be in a shambles all of this year.

Last night, the Dow closed 4,24% down at 6763,29.Worries that financial firms would need more capital also hit sentiment as the US prepared to give AIG a further $30bn in new capital, on top of the $150bn the insurer has already received.

The share price of Europe’s largest bank by market value, HSBC, fell as much as 24% after it said it was raising £12,5bn from shareholders to shore up its capital as it posted a 70% drop in net profit for last year.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan’s biggest bank, retreated 6,8%. Asian and European markets fell 3,5%-5,5% on the renewed worries.

However, despite a further 5% slump in banking share prices, the JSE ended the day just 0,5% lower at 18387 as gold and platinum stocks rallied on higher precious metals prices.

Spot gold rose briefly to $958/oz, while platinum traded at high as $1096,50/oz.

The rand slumped to R10,52/$ in early evening trade as global risk aversion grew. Worse than expected trade data released on Friday also weighed on the currency.

“The problem is that no one yet has a feel that the recession will end this year,” said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan. “The depth and duration of the recession is up for question, and until people determine that I think the market will have a tough time making a lot of progress.”

Buffett said in his keenly awaited annual letter to investors on Saturday that his insurance and investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, had its worst year last year.

The grim news came a day after the US government said gross domestic product for the fourth quarter shrank at an annual rate of 6,2%.

Buffett said he was sure “the economy would be in shambles throughout this year and, for that matter, probably well beyond, but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall”.

The credit crisis and recession have now halved the Dow Jones’s average’s value since it hit a record high of more than 14000 in October 2007.

Standard Online Share Trading’s Simon Brown said HSBC’s poor results followed bad news from Citigroup in the US and Lloyds in the UK last week.

This continued to put pressure on shares in local banks. Although Standard Bank had provided guidance to the market, he said investors were still nervous ahead of results from SA’s largest bank on Thursday and from life assurers Old Mutual and Sanlam tomorrow and on Thursday.

“It’s really just banks that have held us (the JSE) down today,” Brown said.

Once the earnings season was over globally and all the bad news was in the system, Brown said, the markets might settle, although a quick recovery was unlikely. Meanwhile, manufacturing data released in SA, Europe and the US pointed to a deepening global recession.

Euro-zone manufacturers had their worst month in at least 12 years last month. US factory activity also contracted, though at a slower rate. SA’s purchasing managers index fell to a record low of 39,2 last month. With Bloomberg, Reuters

Business Day - News Worth Knowing

Where is bottom? It's still all speculation.

Paq · 03-05-2009, 07:34 AM

i'm not optimistic about this ending this year, but i can say that predictions about it are about a dime a dozen and worth just as much. i mean, really, every year during the depression, people were saying "the worst is over" and it woudl just keep getting worse..same thing last year on cnbc.

it's gonna end when it ends, any predictions are taken with grains of salt.

Cynthetiq · 03-05-2009, 07:36 AM

I read the letter from Omaha on Saturday.

Somewhere in today's NYC rags is something about now being the time to buy stocks. That's what people were saying when it was DOW 10,000 going into 9,000.

What I'm sensing is that people got burned and got burned bad. Those that are looking from the sidelines aren't interested in that game. The barkers are trying to convince more people to put money into the markets. I'm glad I didn't buy at 10k, because I'd be forced to continue to buy down to average out my losses. I'm already doing that in World of Warcraft auction house...

Baraka_Guru · 03-05-2009, 07:37 AM

Paq: Buffett has a pretty good (and long) track record.

Willravel · 03-05-2009, 10:22 AM

What does it mean? I'm glad I invested in tangible goods.

Some of the smartest people I know are saying 6500 by the end of 2009. That doesn't seem unreasonable at this point.

Paq · 03-05-2009, 12:18 PM

considering dow was 6600 just an hour ago, 6500 isn't that hard to fathom.....

baraka: ask how he did last year....

you're only as good as your last statement. I'm not saying he's wrong, i agree with him right now, but i am saying that anyone making predictions right now is just staring at a coffee cup and dragging stuff out of their arses. Look at CNBC for the past year, look at Carter and Ford, look at jfk/ike, looka t JFK's father or hoover. Predictions from anyone right now is just .... well, grab a ball bc yours is as good as anyone's.

Cynthetiq · 03-05-2009, 12:22 PM

paq - I've been of the school of thought that it's always the same as anyone's. people do make mistakes, Buffet's investment into oil at the peak of prices hurt his portfolio, but again because he's diversified well it didn't wreck him unlike those that were all in with Mr. Madoff.

6500 is just a trading day away as a possibility.

Paq · 03-05-2009, 12:31 PM

Oh, he's fine, i'm sure, but he's down 50% from the highs like the rest of the market. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, just that predictions about stuff like this rarely ever pan out. yea, his voice carries more weight, but heck, he's in GS at 115 and was investing in oil at 90-110 and not taking small risks there.

He also shuns techs and was shunning the brokerages (rightfully so) bc of the insane PE ratios...

He's fine, but about as well as people who just bought the spyders or diamonds.

Willravel · 03-05-2009, 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paq

considering dow was 6600 just an hour ago, 6500 isn't that hard to fathom.....

What I meant is that by the end of 2009 we'll still be where we are now.

The_Jazz · 03-05-2009, 05:34 PM

This is the time to buy blue-chips for the long hold. I've picked up several (GE, Microsoft, BB&T, Wells Fargo) with the idea that I won't sell anything for at least 5 years. The dividends alone in that time should pay for most of the sale price anyway.

I sincerely doubt that the end of Western civilization is upon us and that the stock market will cease to exist.

Boo · 03-05-2009, 11:02 PM

Me personally:

More competition for jobs as older people are coming out of retirement because they have lost the bounty of their hard work.

No chance of an early retirement.

Chance of losing my job as management chases any possible profit.

Stress at work as management does more with less manpower.

Loss of any vacation because I am/will be doing the job of 5 all by myself.

Loss of profit sharing as their is very little if at all.

It takes time to recover. Unfortunately many people are lacking the time to wait out the markets. There is no confidence in the markets. Too many people have too much debt and have decided to pay off debt instead of investing. I will be buying land. At least they can spread my ashes on it.

03-02-2009, 08:42 AM	#2 (permalink)
Lasereth Knight of the Old Republic Location: Winston-Salem, NC	Everytime it drops all I think about is how funny it is that a group of people are sitting around a bunch of monitors in the middle of NYC on their phones contemplating whether or not this will be a good stock day. If they think it will, it is a good day. If they think it won't, it won't. It's quite comical!!!!! __________________ "A Darwinian attacks his theory, seeking to find flaws. An ID believer defends his theory, seeking to conceal flaws." -Roger Ebert

03-02-2009, 09:11 AM	#3 (permalink)
Grancey Life's short, gotta hurry... Location: land of pit vipers	I don't really follow the DOW at all. It's just numbers to me. I do own stock in my local bank, which is one of the top 200 community banks in the country. During the current economic crisis this bank has had solid earnings and doube-digit loan growth. I follow the quarterly reports. I could never handle this daily nightmare stuff. __________________ Quiet, mild-mannered souls might just turn out to be roaring lions of two-fisted cool.

03-02-2009, 09:22 AM	#4 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	To me it means there are a lot of good deals out there right now. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

03-02-2009, 09:30 AM	#6 (permalink)
crewsor Women want me. Men fear me. Location: Maryland,USA	To me, it means the money going into my 401 K each week is buying me more for less. Unless the market tanks for good, which is highly unlikely, times like these are where you make your best earnings long term. __________________ We all have wings, some of us just don't know why.

03-02-2009, 10:09 AM	#8 (permalink)
dksuddeth Junkie Location: bedford, tx	market correction. The fake inflated money value is finally coming back to normal. Maybe this time, gov and business will realize it's about product quality and service, not quantity and replacement costs. __________________ "no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything. You cannot conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him."

03-02-2009, 11:21 AM	#10 (permalink)
Strange Famous follower of the child's crusade?	capitalism is failing. The revolution is coming comrades! __________________ "Do not tell lies, and do not do what you hate, for all things are plain in the sight of Heaven. For nothing hidden will not become manifest, and nothing covered will remain without being uncovered." The Gospel of Thomas

03-02-2009, 12:06 PM	#11 (permalink)
braisler Addict Location: Midway, KY	Everything is on sale! Seriously! That is exactly what the DOW below 7000 means to me. I'm looking for solid companies that have good balance sheets and have been dragged down with the rest of the market. Ebay, Microsoft, Eli Lilly are all at great prices right now. Do you really think that they are going under? Not really likely. I won't be buying GM or Citi right now, but there are some great deals in lots of other areas of the market. I've got my 403b on auto-pilot of course, so it is buying me dollar cost average shares in 3 Fidelity mutual funds while the market is down. Sure, it is tough to look at the balance in that account and see that it has gone down from 2 years ago despite putting in more cash each month. But, if I look over to the column for number of shares bought for each transaction, I'm buying nearly double the number of shares each month this year as I was at this time last year. I'm also taking any extra money that I can get together and working to find good stocks to buy in my brokerage account.

03-02-2009, 12:30 PM	#12 (permalink)
ratbastid Darth Papa Location: Yonder	The responses on this thread are interesting. Who thinks we're in for a bargain-seeking bounce soon?

03-02-2009, 12:47 PM	#13 (permalink)
Cynthetiq Tilted Cat Head Administrator Location: Manhattan, NY	I agree it's a bargain hunt for those with the stomach and fortitude to do so. If I had not bought a foreclosure last year, maybe I'd have used some of that capital to buy some bargains. I'm not a stock guy, at least not yet. Funds I've got the stomach for, but regular stocks, I'd rather play in Vegas. __________________ I don't care if you are black, white, purple, green, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, hippie, cop, bum, admin, user, English, Irish, French, Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Buddhist, Muslim, indian, cowboy, tall, short, fat, skinny, emo, punk, mod, rocker, straight, gay, lesbian, jock, nerd, geek, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent, driver, pedestrian, or bicyclist, either you're an asshole or you're not. What's the best nation in the world? DO-NATION!

03-02-2009, 12:59 PM	#14 (permalink)
braisler Addict Location: Midway, KY	Funds typically under-perform the market. They are pretty much guaranteed to under-perform based on the way that they are structured (they have to hold a certain number of stocks, used to be 30+ but I haven't kept track, the size of their transactions are cumbersome, they have certain regulatory restrictions on how they can enter or exit positions). If you are willing to put in a little bit of effort educating yourself about what makes a good company perform well, then you can pick good stocks and do well for yourself. I sold a good bit of my portfolio to put in a larger down-payment on our current house and to pay for remodeling costs a few years ago. Because of that, I haven't been as active in tracking the market as I once was. But, with this current downturn, I'm shifting my attentions back in that direction. Some people like to go shopping for shoes when there is a big sale. That's how I feel about the stock market right now. I don't think that there will be a bargain-hunters bounce in the short-term. Too many people are too frightened and already depressed in their holdings to want to push more cash at a falling market. I'm looking for solid companies at a discount, and dividend paying companies that have enough cash on hand and revenue stream to continue to pay out without cutting in the near future.

03-02-2009, 02:15 PM	#15 (permalink)
ColonelSpecial Insane	I think that 12 years isn't very long. That is how long it has been since the DOW was this low. I have found that most things are cyclical, the stock market included. We are hurting right now and the DOW is showing that but soon we will be building back up and we will forget about this dip, until it happens again. __________________ "Mommy, the presidents are squishing me!" "Using the pull out method of contraceptive is like saying I won't use a seat belt, I'll just jump out of the car before it hits that tree." Sara

03-02-2009, 05:21 PM	#17 (permalink)
soma Addict Location: USA	It's scary knowing that the value of so many companies has halved from a few summers ago. Do you all remember when we hit 14,000? That number seems SOOOOOOOOOOOOO distant now. __________________ Having Girl Problems?

03-02-2009, 05:34 PM	#18 (permalink)
BadNick Riding the Ocean Spray Location: S.E. PA in U Sofa	If I had to retire now, my 401k would only be worth about 70% of what it was last year. Hopefully I can build it back up by buying in now and riding it out a few more years.

03-02-2009, 11:58 PM	#20 (permalink)
ChrisJericho eat more fruit Location: Seattle	We are still likely overpriced and will go lower, probably 600-650 on the SPX. __________________ "A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows us that faith proves nothing." - Friedrich Nietzsche

03-03-2009, 12:38 AM	#21 (permalink)
tisonlyi Nothing	There's a long, long way to go yet. As for the stability in 'indicators' (which are only indicators until they don't work anymore), pshah. Horse. If you're looking for a bounce, don't go thinking it'll last too long. P/E at the end of a standard bear market are much lower than they are right now. [Oh, and just think, these comparisons with 10-15 years ago levels on Dow and S&P... The dollar is worth about 50-75% of its purchasing power back then, depending on whose stats you look at... Interesting.] __________________ "I do not agree that the dog in a manger has the final right to the manger even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit that right. I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill, 1937 --{ORLY?}--

03-03-2009, 05:48 AM	#22 (permalink)
Aladdin Sane Degenerate Location: San Marvelous	It means my 401K is worth 50% of its value one year ago. It is now worth less than I've invested over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, I've been hit with a huge tax bill because I was self employed for most of 2008. The government takes the money I worked my ass off for and hands it over to deadbeats on main street and wall street. There's going to be a revolution alright. __________________ Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam.

03-03-2009, 08:08 AM	#23 (permalink)
Paq Junkie Location: South Carolina	not to be too jaded here, but if yo'ure saying "O, the blue chips" or "strong companies" are going to be fine....just remember that 10+ yrs ago, those companies were GM, F, GE, BSC, LEH, MER, MS, GS, BAC, WFC, PG(which is just back to 1997 levels, not nearly as bad as the others), T(same case), pfe, vz... Well, let's just say that half of those would mean you're bankrupt right now and the other half mean you lost 10-15 yrs of growth...which is half of the time most people spend saving for retirement (most don't start til 30-35, unfortunately). So, while things are cheaper...normally they are cheaper for a reason. But, if you want a fund and you're worried that funds underperform the market, then buy the index etfs, Spy, iwm, qqqq, dia, etc. Why fight the market, you know? I'm wtih jericho, though, this probably has another 10% to fall __________________ Live. Chris

03-05-2009, 07:34 AM	#25 (permalink)
Paq Junkie Location: South Carolina	i'm not optimistic about this ending this year, but i can say that predictions about it are about a dime a dozen and worth just as much. i mean, really, every year during the depression, people were saying "the worst is over" and it woudl just keep getting worse..same thing last year on cnbc. it's gonna end when it ends, any predictions are taken with grains of salt. __________________ Live. Chris

03-05-2009, 07:36 AM	#26 (permalink)
Cynthetiq Tilted Cat Head Administrator Location: Manhattan, NY	I read the letter from Omaha on Saturday. Somewhere in today's NYC rags is something about now being the time to buy stocks. That's what people were saying when it was DOW 10,000 going into 9,000. What I'm sensing is that people got burned and got burned bad. Those that are looking from the sidelines aren't interested in that game. The barkers are trying to convince more people to put money into the markets. I'm glad I didn't buy at 10k, because I'd be forced to continue to buy down to average out my losses. I'm already doing that in World of Warcraft auction house... __________________ I don't care if you are black, white, purple, green, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, hippie, cop, bum, admin, user, English, Irish, French, Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Buddhist, Muslim, indian, cowboy, tall, short, fat, skinny, emo, punk, mod, rocker, straight, gay, lesbian, jock, nerd, geek, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent, driver, pedestrian, or bicyclist, either you're an asshole or you're not. What's the best nation in the world? DO-NATION!

03-05-2009, 07:37 AM	#27 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Paq: Buffett has a pretty good (and long) track record. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

03-05-2009, 10:22 AM	#28 (permalink)
Willravel ... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.	What does it mean? I'm glad I invested in tangible goods. Some of the smartest people I know are saying 6500 by the end of 2009. That doesn't seem unreasonable at this point.

03-05-2009, 12:18 PM	#29 (permalink)
Paq Junkie Location: South Carolina	considering dow was 6600 just an hour ago, 6500 isn't that hard to fathom..... baraka: ask how he did last year.... you're only as good as your last statement. I'm not saying he's wrong, i agree with him right now, but i am saying that anyone making predictions right now is just staring at a coffee cup and dragging stuff out of their arses. Look at CNBC for the past year, look at Carter and Ford, look at jfk/ike, looka t JFK's father or hoover. Predictions from anyone right now is just .... well, grab a ball bc yours is as good as anyone's. __________________ Live. Chris

03-05-2009, 12:22 PM	#30 (permalink)
Cynthetiq Tilted Cat Head Administrator Location: Manhattan, NY	paq - I've been of the school of thought that it's always the same as anyone's. people do make mistakes, Buffet's investment into oil at the peak of prices hurt his portfolio, but again because he's diversified well it didn't wreck him unlike those that were all in with Mr. Madoff. 6500 is just a trading day away as a possibility. __________________ I don't care if you are black, white, purple, green, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, hippie, cop, bum, admin, user, English, Irish, French, Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Buddhist, Muslim, indian, cowboy, tall, short, fat, skinny, emo, punk, mod, rocker, straight, gay, lesbian, jock, nerd, geek, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent, driver, pedestrian, or bicyclist, either you're an asshole or you're not. What's the best nation in the world? DO-NATION!

03-05-2009, 12:31 PM	#31 (permalink)
Paq Junkie Location: South Carolina	Oh, he's fine, i'm sure, but he's down 50% from the highs like the rest of the market. I'm not saying he's right or wrong, just that predictions about stuff like this rarely ever pan out. yea, his voice carries more weight, but heck, he's in GS at 115 and was investing in oil at 90-110 and not taking small risks there. He also shuns techs and was shunning the brokerages (rightfully so) bc of the insane PE ratios... He's fine, but about as well as people who just bought the spyders or diamonds. __________________ Live. Chris

03-05-2009, 05:34 PM	#33 (permalink)
The_Jazz Asshole Administrator Location: Chicago	This is the time to buy blue-chips for the long hold. I've picked up several (GE, Microsoft, BB&T, Wells Fargo) with the idea that I won't sell anything for at least 5 years. The dividends alone in that time should pay for most of the sale price anyway. I sincerely doubt that the end of Western civilization is upon us and that the stock market will cease to exist. __________________ "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin "There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush "We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

03-05-2009, 11:02 PM	#34 (permalink)
Boo Leave me alone! Location: Alaska, USA	Me personally: More competition for jobs as older people are coming out of retirement because they have lost the bounty of their hard work. No chance of an early retirement. Chance of losing my job as management chases any possible profit. Stress at work as management does more with less manpower. Loss of any vacation because I am/will be doing the job of 5 all by myself. Loss of profit sharing as their is very little if at all. It takes time to recover. Unfortunately many people are lacking the time to wait out the markets. There is no confidence in the markets. Too many people have too much debt and have decided to pay off debt instead of investing. I will be buying land. At least they can spread my ashes on it. __________________ Back button again, I must be getting old.