jorgelito

Intrigue in the Middle East

Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear weapons facilities?

In light of the Iranian standoff and the Iranians not budging, will Israel take matters into their own hands?

1. Precedent - Osirik and Syria: However, those two cases were isolated facilities. Iran's nuclear weapons program is distributed widely throughout the country and Iran is rather big. Practically speaking, Israel's capability is not sufficient enough to destroy it all. They can however, destroy a good portion of it and depending on the success, set it back 2-10 years.

2. Logistics - Israel would have to fly over a long expanse to get to Iran. Either over Jordan, Syria, Iraq, or via Turkey. None of these countries would be happy with that. I can't imagine them getting flyover permission. They have been exercising and practicing refueling so who knows they might be able to pull it off.

Then they still have to get by the anti-aircraft batteries (thanks to the Russians) dotting the Iranian landscape. The Iranian Air Force shouldn't be too much trouble, but all taken together, it won't be a cakewalk. Israel is more vulnerable than people think.

3. US assistance - Presumably, Israel would have to obtain the blessing or tacit approval of the US (non-declared, non-public) for this operation. Given that Obama could be elected, then Israel may try to do this before that happens.

4. Backlash - Political fallout and public opinion. This would be disastrous for Israel. But they got to do what they got to do I suppose. Hopefully we will continue our support even if Obama is elected.

Last ditch: Maybe Iran comes back to the table and cease their nuclear weapons program.

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dlish

one thing to remember is that if israel attacks first, the entire mid east will see it as the aggressor and the entire mid east would turn on it, leaving israel isolated in the region.

if usa did the dirty work, then the mid east would be disturbed but ok.

same result different outcome.

strange world we live in

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jorgelito

Interesting insight D. But I don't think the US can "get away" with that type of action either. We've already splashed fuel on the fire over there.

Israel is already isolated pretty much in the region. Its only "allies" Egypt. Jordan are pretty cold. The only thing I can go on is past behaviour: Osirak, Iraq and Syria. Both actions, did not result in much more than diplomatic grumbling. But who knows, maybe the USA did some damage control behind the scenes. Though this could be the tipping point.

I think to be successful, there would have to be clear threats and media play involved. In my opinion, the following condition would be required.

1. It is clearly evident that Iran has a serious nuclear weapons program that is near the "beyond the threshold" point.

2. Diplomacy has failed.

3. Iran is belligerent and making threats, especially to "drive Israel into the sea"; sabre rattling and making its neighbors nervous (Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc).

4. Israel (with US help) conducts a covert operation with minimal hype and minimal collateral damage.

__________________
"The race is not always to the swift, nor battle to the strong, but
to the one that endures to the end."

"Demand more from yourself, more than anyone else could ever ask!"

- My recruiter

The Faba

Never underestimate the power of a bunch of heavily armed Jews.

jorgelito

You would think. Except they are no longer "invincible". The myth of Israeli military superiority has been dispelled since the Israeli-Lebanese War of 2006.

__________________
"The race is not always to the swift, nor battle to the strong, but
to the one that endures to the end."

"Demand more from yourself, more than anyone else could ever ask!"

- My recruiter

levite

I believe I will respectfully disagree with this prediction, D. I think if the US attacks Iran, the surrounding countries in the region will not actively oppose it, but they will deeply resent the repeated intrusion of the West, and radical Islamist groups will get a jackpot of increased fodder for opposing the "Crusader Armies." American popularity-- always tenuous in the region-- will suffer even more.

On the other hand, nobody in that region likes Israel, as it is, anyhow. They have no popularity to suffer. I think most of the countries in the region-- which aren't all that crazy about Iran anyhow (Iran being non-Arab and Shiite-dominated), and are expecting Israel to take out Iranian nuclear plants before they can get a bomb together, anyway-- will blow some hot air about the Zionist aggressor, but nothing will happen. The radical Islamist groups, will get nothing they don't already have. They can't actually hate Israel more than they do. And I doubt there is a seething mass of people just waiting to go radical that would all be pushed over the brink by Israel taking out Iranian nuclear plants.

But I think there are plenty of people who don't like what the US has done in Iraq, but don't actively hate the US yet, who would in fact come to hate the US if we followed up Iraq with strikes on Iran.

I think in either case, not much will really result from the Iranian nukes getting taken out, because I really don't believe all that many people are interested in Iran having the bomb, especially with Ahmedinijad's finger on the button.

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Absence, because it doth remove
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jorgelito

Like I said. That's pretty much it in a nut shell.

__________________
"The race is not always to the swift, nor battle to the strong, but
to the one that endures to the end."

"Demand more from yourself, more than anyone else could ever ask!"

- My recruiter