ARTelevision

Are you noticing how the future is getting here faster lately?
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New technology may predict crimes in advance
times of india

WASHINGTON: With the introduction of a new technology, which analyses crime data over a ten-year period, the police would now be able to predict the number and type of crimes that will occur in a given neighbourhood one month in advance, media reports claimed.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, who have developed the software, claim that the technology can forecast the number and types of crimes that will occur within a ten-block area with a 20 per cent error rate.

"This is the next generation of crime mapping", Wipen Gorr, a Carnegie Mellon professor of public policy and management information systems said.

A small team of researchers is running final tests on the project, which is funded by the National Institute of Justice, the research wing of the Department of Justice.

The scientists plan to release the novel system later this summer.
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There are some effects of Moore's Law that are inevitable.
The main one is speeding up the rate at which the present becomes the future.

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SecretMethod70

Pretty cool. I have no problem with this. It's one thing to predict what crimes will probably happen and where they will happen - it's a totally different thing to predict that someone will commit the crime and charge them with it before-hand. Let's hope that the error percentage either decreases or increases dramatically. Decreases because they get it to be more accurate, or increases because criminals become more aware they're watching and commit less crimes. (While the former is the more likely one, the latter would be nice)

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Daval

Neat article, thanks art.

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Cynthetiq

Interesting... a 20% margin of error is huge, and of course, people will say that the software is biased to minorities due to the fact most of the crimes happen in the poorer neighborhoods.

I wonder what the margin of error is for weather since they have been collecting that data as well, and IMHO weather is just as unpredictable as people.

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ARTelevision

c'mon Cyn, you know it's just a matter of time (shorter and shorter) until this type of app will predict when we will have an anti-social thought...

I'd say human behavior is more predictable by the hour. This would be because our range of behaviors is rapidly being edited and programmed by culture. But you knew I'd say that

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Cynthetiq

True.... the weather isn't influenced and coaxed by big business.... I will it is affected by it obviously by the manufacturing by product and chemical runoff.

I agree with you but what makes the human machine the most exciting to study is that predictable as they can be, at some point there is someone that doesn't fit that prediction. I guess that's why we like non-fiction stories and myths.

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sbscout

can you say neighborhood profiling?

I knew you could!

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phredgreen

so what good will this do for society beyond bringing statisticians endless hours of glee? so woo, we know that 5 people will get raped, 20 people will get mugged, 14 people will ahve their llama stolen and one person is going to file a complaint because their neighbor plays their sitar too fucking loud... sure, we know we can deploy more cops in the area, but beyond saturating an area with uniforms, what good is this going to make? that's like taco bell taking a survey of how many tacos i've eaten over the last year and having them cooked and ready for the times they thik i'm gonna be coming in... i'm not always gonna be there when they have one piping hot and ready to go for me.

i think this is quite the novelty, but it really serves no practical purpose, but that is my own opinon, of course.

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Peetster

Can't see how this would affect the really evil people. Petty crime, sure.

Big Julie

I think it will self-fulfill. Put more cops in a area, and they will find more, to justify being there.
Not saying the individual cop will become more agressive, but I imagine that there will be pressure from higher up the chain of command to produce the desired results.

Ticket quotas anyone? That kinda thing.

As Peetster alludes, the hard-core criminal will just go elsewhere.

gibber71

Thanks,..That's interesting.I have a friend who does something similar but rather than predicting crime,predicts the potential outcome to football and hockey games.He is pretty good at it too and when he gambles,he usually wins.

gov135

This is a nice thought. I simply don't see it that way.

Phred is right, knowing crime will occur does nothing to stop it. Putting squad cars on the streets doesn't help anything other than response time.

They should take the information and use it in targeted stings; this may help. For example, if Highland is seeing a pattern of rampant gang activity, use undercover officers and paid informants to take out gangs. I don't, however, see this happening. Instead, people living in Highland are more likely to see increased traffic citations.

Everyone that works with data in any capacity knows a twenty percent error rate is through the roof. And that data is only good when it can be translated to meaningful information. I just don't see this data translating to a lower crime rate.

seretogis

People who live in a city (such as Minneapolis) know where the "bad parts of town" are already and know to avoid them. I don't think this will do anything but reinforce that.

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BBtB

The first thing I will say is what has been pointed out before. 20% margin of error? Hell I could probably just guess the crime of any given neighborhood and do better then that. I mean I could just look at their past crime and maybe any new crime stopping programs and give out a number. This is still a far cry from (usefull) minority report though. I do think at one point we will be aresting people for what they could have done.

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THE MAC GOD

I think it's a great step forward and possibly a good deterrent...

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Frowning Budah

Don't you think shifting the police to an area where the computer predicts crime will happen will just increase crime in other areas?

madsenj37

I do not really have a problem with this because it does not pick out individuals. I think its good for a police dept to have a good heads up. But I also agree that this can lead to other things such as ARTelevision suggested. Any new technology always has the possiblity of being used wrongly, so this having a potential to be used wrong is not a surprise to me.

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guthmund

My thoughts exactly. Crime is going to happen. You'd think by pushing on the balloon in the bad neighborhoods crime would compensate by stretching into other neighborhoods.

They could've saved millions of dollars on this project, just by going to the neighborhoods and asking the locals. We all no what streets we avoid and what neighborhoods you don't want to be in after sundown.

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krwlz

Since I know 1984 was a popular book....Anyone else predicting the creation of the thought police? Or at least be charged with thoughtcrime?

Kinda scary, kinda cool...