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Honestly, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Bush can win the next election. The American people will reject him and vote for almost anyone who isn't him. I personally dont think much of Kerry, he is far to right of most ordinary American's, and there is also a lot of sleaze stories coming out about him already (the supposed affair with the intern - big deal, but the alleged crooked deal with the insurance company when he basically was paid to vote and act for their interests is very worrying)
I mean, outside of very political die hard republicans, does anyone actually know someone who will vote for Bush?
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The election is certainly winnable for Bush. His current low popularity rating isn't a good leading indicator, though it doesn't help him very much. I think his teflon coating is more damaged than it has ever been, and that stories are starting to stick, the press is becoming more hostile, and his approval rating is falling, but he's by no means out for the count yet. The hope among republicans is that he will begin to do better when he cracks open that war chest of his and actually starts running. In 2000, he was able to spend considerable amounts of money while Gore was still recovering from the primary. For a good 3 weeks, Gore was more or less running on fumes. I would look for Bush to hold off on heavy-duty campaign spending until the Democrats have a nominee.
Bush will try to make the election about gay marriage and national security. Kerry will spend his time talking about health care, the economy, and probably education. He might also talk about national security himself if he thinks people want to hear about it, which is likely because Bush will put it on the agenda. Look also for Bush to use his position in the White House as a campaign tool. He's made no bones about scheduling some things (like additional military spending) after the election. He might announce some kind of new counter-terrorism initiative, education plan, or something in the coming months.
So, don't count out our president quite so fast. I think he's not going to be nearly as formidable as Rove would like, but people like to like their president, and he has astute advisors.