Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post

BigBlueWrecking · 02-01-2004, 09:57 AM

Here is a story from ESPN Insider about the Yanks.

Memo to all those who believe the little speed bumps the Yankees have encountered this offseason are signs that the apocalypse is upon them: it's going to take more than that to tumble this franchise.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Yankees have brought in more talent than they have lost. While it may have been psychologically devastating for Yankee fans to see some of their favorite players sail off into the National League sunset, the fact remains that this is still very much a team to be reckoned with. Those outside of Yankeeland who find themselves rubbing their hands with anticipatory glee are going to have their hearts broken if they invest too much emotional coin in believing a few personnel setbacks are going to be the undoing of this franchise.

The Yankees can overcome the loss of Andy Pettitte.
The Weep: The Yankees lost 75 percent of their 2003 starts. The departures of Roger Clemens, David Wells, Andy Pettitte and Jeff Weaver means that the pitchers who started 120 of New York's 162 games will be in the other league this year. In fact, the only pitchers left on their roster who started a game for them last year are Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras and Jorge DePaula. (The other two starters -- Sterling Hitchcock and Brandon Claussen at one game each -- were shipped out in mid-season.)

The Truth: Pettitte, Wells and Clemens combined for 44 Bill James Win Shares in 2003. Newcomers Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez combined for 41. Yes, Brown's health is a question mark, but the fact is, the Yankees got two pitchers who nearly matched the output of their three lost starters. Yes, it won't quite be the same without the departed heroes, but mercenaries do mercenary things, and it's best to keep a little emotional distance from them so that when they do go off to fight a battle for someone else, their loss will not be so psychologically profound.

The Weep: Aaron Boone's season-ending injury is going to play havoc on the Yankees lineup and defense.

The Truth: Boone arrived on July 31 of last year and the team was at a .623 winning percentage. Boone did not play as well as he had in Cincinnati and did not even really match the performance of his predecessor, Robin Ventura, and the team continued on its merry way, going .625 the rest of the way. In other words, the picture stayed the same with Boone. It can be argued that they will be hard-pressed to come up with a suitable replacement but what is the worst they can expect out of third base? 10 Win Shares? That's not as good as the 15 Ventura and Boone combined for, but it is not the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination. Besides, the Yankees could well turn around and trade to get Ventura back and it seems reasonable to expect him to log 12 to 15 in 2003. He totaled 20 as recently as 2002.

In all, the Yankees lost about 100 Win Shares of 2003 talent this offseason but replaced it with over 120. (Just to make the comparison fair, I included in this 100 the 15 Win Shares assigned to the combination of Ventura and Boone.) In addition to the pitchers mentioned above, gone are the following:

Nick Johnson, 14
Chris Hammond, 7
Karim Garcia, 5
Juan Rivera, 5
Antonio Osuna, 4
Al Reyes, 2
Jeff Nelson, 2
Jeff Weaver, 2

David Dellucci and Randy Choate are gone as well but they failed to register any Win Shares.

To replace them, the Yankees have brought in the following in addition to Vazquez and Brown:

Gary Sheffield, 35
Kenny Lofton, 18
Tom Gordon, 11
Paul Quantrill, 11
Tony Clark, 4
Miguel Cairo, 3

The Yankees brought in plenty of talent this offseason.
Yes, it can be argued that, apart from Vazquez, the new faces are fairly weathered by age and are therefore susceptible to injuries. Much the same can be said about two of the main departed parties (Wells and Clemens) as well. Even Johnson, the most valuable position player lost this offseason, missed a lot of time to the disabled list last year.

Are the Yankees going to win 101 games again this year? They outperformed their projection by four games in 2003, so they would actually have to improve or get just as lucky in 2004 to repeat that feat if everything else held steady. Could they be unseated by the Red Sox? Absolutely. But to think they are going to drop ten games in the standings is a hopeless wish for their detractors and unnecessary self-inflicted pessimism for their supporters. The Yankees have the smarts and the resources to make corrections on the fly as they see fit and this will keep them at the top of their division until such time as George Steinbrenner is called to the great beyond where he will, inevitably, try to run things.

# Skroo Upps (Skroo Upps is a copyrighted feature of this columnist): Yesterday, I mistakenly referred to Aaron Boone as a career second baseman who made the transition to third base smoothly last year. Of course the transition was smooth, Jim -- he played there most of his career! It sure seemed like the right thing to say at the time. I apologize for any confusion my confusion may have caused.

02-01-2004, 09:57 AM	#26 (permalink)
BigBlueWrecking Psycho	Here is a story from ESPN Insider about the Yanks. Memo to all those who believe the little speed bumps the Yankees have encountered this offseason are signs that the apocalypse is upon them: it's going to take more than that to tumble this franchise. The simple fact of the matter is that the Yankees have brought in more talent than they have lost. While it may have been psychologically devastating for Yankee fans to see some of their favorite players sail off into the National League sunset, the fact remains that this is still very much a team to be reckoned with. Those outside of Yankeeland who find themselves rubbing their hands with anticipatory glee are going to have their hearts broken if they invest too much emotional coin in believing a few personnel setbacks are going to be the undoing of this franchise. The Yankees can overcome the loss of Andy Pettitte. The Weep: The Yankees lost 75 percent of their 2003 starts. The departures of Roger Clemens, David Wells, Andy Pettitte and Jeff Weaver means that the pitchers who started 120 of New York's 162 games will be in the other league this year. In fact, the only pitchers left on their roster who started a game for them last year are Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras and Jorge DePaula. (The other two starters -- Sterling Hitchcock and Brandon Claussen at one game each -- were shipped out in mid-season.) The Truth: Pettitte, Wells and Clemens combined for 44 Bill James Win Shares in 2003. Newcomers Kevin Brown and Javier Vazquez combined for 41. Yes, Brown's health is a question mark, but the fact is, the Yankees got two pitchers who nearly matched the output of their three lost starters. Yes, it won't quite be the same without the departed heroes, but mercenaries do mercenary things, and it's best to keep a little emotional distance from them so that when they do go off to fight a battle for someone else, their loss will not be so psychologically profound. The Weep: Aaron Boone's season-ending injury is going to play havoc on the Yankees lineup and defense. The Truth: Boone arrived on July 31 of last year and the team was at a .623 winning percentage. Boone did not play as well as he had in Cincinnati and did not even really match the performance of his predecessor, Robin Ventura, and the team continued on its merry way, going .625 the rest of the way. In other words, the picture stayed the same with Boone. It can be argued that they will be hard-pressed to come up with a suitable replacement but what is the worst they can expect out of third base? 10 Win Shares? That's not as good as the 15 Ventura and Boone combined for, but it is not the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination. Besides, the Yankees could well turn around and trade to get Ventura back and it seems reasonable to expect him to log 12 to 15 in 2003. He totaled 20 as recently as 2002. In all, the Yankees lost about 100 Win Shares of 2003 talent this offseason but replaced it with over 120. (Just to make the comparison fair, I included in this 100 the 15 Win Shares assigned to the combination of Ventura and Boone.) In addition to the pitchers mentioned above, gone are the following: Nick Johnson, 14 Chris Hammond, 7 Karim Garcia, 5 Juan Rivera, 5 Antonio Osuna, 4 Al Reyes, 2 Jeff Nelson, 2 Jeff Weaver, 2 David Dellucci and Randy Choate are gone as well but they failed to register any Win Shares. To replace them, the Yankees have brought in the following in addition to Vazquez and Brown: Gary Sheffield, 35 Kenny Lofton, 18 Tom Gordon, 11 Paul Quantrill, 11 Tony Clark, 4 Miguel Cairo, 3 The Yankees brought in plenty of talent this offseason. Yes, it can be argued that, apart from Vazquez, the new faces are fairly weathered by age and are therefore susceptible to injuries. Much the same can be said about two of the main departed parties (Wells and Clemens) as well. Even Johnson, the most valuable position player lost this offseason, missed a lot of time to the disabled list last year. Are the Yankees going to win 101 games again this year? They outperformed their projection by four games in 2003, so they would actually have to improve or get just as lucky in 2004 to repeat that feat if everything else held steady. Could they be unseated by the Red Sox? Absolutely. But to think they are going to drop ten games in the standings is a hopeless wish for their detractors and unnecessary self-inflicted pessimism for their supporters. The Yankees have the smarts and the resources to make corrections on the fly as they see fit and this will keep them at the top of their division until such time as George Steinbrenner is called to the great beyond where he will, inevitably, try to run things. # Skroo Upps (Skroo Upps is a copyrighted feature of this columnist): Yesterday, I mistakenly referred to Aaron Boone as a career second baseman who made the transition to third base smoothly last year. Of course the transition was smooth, Jim -- he played there most of his career! It sure seemed like the right thing to say at the time. I apologize for any confusion my confusion may have caused.