Quote:
Originally posted by HunterDevourer
Think maybe you're overestimating the nationalism of Russia from the Soviet era. (Maybe, I wasn't born in that place and period so I don't know for sure), but conditions weren't fantastic in the cold war period. The populace was probably under constant fear, and would've had to deal with bad situations. I doubt memories of that time are glorious. Besides, some economic figures as well as standard of living figures show that Russia is improving since the application of a democratic system (albeit improving slowly).
At least, I'd hope that what I say is right, but I think I'd agree with Nad Adams point that the system they've adopted would mean they'd be more likely to attempt to strengthen internally before starting war.
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Historically, Russians have been very nationalistic and still are. Expectations of change were very high when they welcomed capitalism and shrugged off communism, slow change is okay for a while, but at some point it gets to be too slow.
I don't necessarily put my "forecast" on Russia high on the probability scale, but it's something that is almost never talked about as being a possibility. Look at how quickly Germany rose up after WWI. They too were a nationalistic society who went from being a big player in world affairs to a whipping boy for other nations. Russia is in no less a position to do the same, if they tire of the pace of "reform".
The break away republics can be just as, if not more so, dangerous. They have the military remnants of the cold war throughout their countries, many have been filled with civil war and power struggles, but at some point they may begin looking outside their borders for a common enemy to unite the various factions and end their struggles. Again, not high on the probability scale any time soon, but it's the social/political stability of countries that determine their path, not just how big a military they have right now, or what their intentions are at the moment. Things can change quickly in world politics and just because Europe has been relatively stable in the last several decades, it doesn't mean it will be stable for the coming several.