Quote:
Originally posted by Superbelt
I don't think Zinni and Day's accounts contradict what Ritter and the UN Weapons inspectors say. Just because only 74% of targets were neutralized doesn't mean an equal percentage of the WMD were spread out among all the targets.
I believe the 90 - 95+% could still be spot on. Especially since they were on the ground afterwards to verify everything while the US military was not.
|
Right -- that's why I included the second half of the post, which showed that #1) we didn't target all the sites (none of the WMD storage sites, for example) and #2) we didn't even try to target suspected sites.
From an address to the House of Commons (
http://www.fas.org/news/iraq/2000/07/0041913.htm), the first specific objective is "To degrade Saddam's WMD capabilities including his concealment organisation." Degrade -- not destroy. This is confirmed in the damage assessment done by the US Military, reproduced in
http://www.csis.org/stratassessment/...DesertFox.pdf. (Table III)
Focusing on WMD industry alone, out of 11 targets, 4 received light damage, 5 moderate, 1 severe, and 0 destroyed. 1 was still being assessed, so we'll count that destroyed. On WMD Security, 5 light, 6 moderate, 5 severe, 2 destroyed. This is nowhere near 90-95% of their capability destroyed, or even severely curtailed. (We were more successful with Command and Control targets, destroying at least 7 of 20 targets)
We didn't target everything, and we sure didn't destroy everything we targeted. This is because that was not the objective of Desert Fox. Unless you read Joe Conason or Sidney Blumenthal or the like, you know this was the case. Clinton himself on December 19, 1998 (two days after bombing started):
Quote:
|
Our objectives in this military action were clear: to degrade Saddam's weapons of mass destruction program and related delivery systems, as well as his capacity to attack his neighbors. It will take some time to make a detailed assessment of our operation, but based on the briefing I've just received, I am confident we have achieved our mission. We have inflicted significant damage on Saddam's weapons of mass destruction programs, on the command structures that direct and protect that capability, and on his military and security infrastructure. In a short while, Secretary Cohen and General Shelton will give you a more detailed analysis from the Pentagon.
|
The first sentence is key -- degrade, not destroy. In this measure Desert Fox was a success. You'll get no argument from me -- I supported Desert Fox, and $400 million of ordnance goes a long way.
But to say that we set out and destroyed 90-95% of Iraq's WMD capability contradicts both the intent and the end result of the mission.
Ritter could not have possibly confirmed the effectiveness of Desert Fox -- he resigned in August 1998, and Desert Fox began December 17, 1998. He did return to Iraq (in 2000), but to film a documentary.
-- Alvin
EDIT: Incorrect date (December 19, 1999 changed to December 19, 1998)