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Terminator 3 had far more impressive Visual Effects than either of the two Matrix sequels (yes I loved the Matrix films too). Terminator had visual effects based more in reality and is perhaps the only movie I've watched where I haven't been able to pick out all the CG elements, the CG doubles in that film are brilliant.
Though Matrix had more inventive and technically wowing material it wasn't very impressive. The Burly Brawl was a great sequence but where realism begins and where CG begins is a very discernable line. There wasn't anything impressive about the Highway chase, only that it makes you realise that trucks should always have axels.
In Revolutions the only shot that I thought was brilliant is Neo's showdown with the Baby-face robot (the machine who goes "Speak"). Plus the Matrix, though excellent films, does get pretentious with its effects, they go for more of a "Look at me" feel which I'm sure the so-called film intellectuals at the Oscars are not liking very much.
With that said I do not know who should win the award, probably Return of the King, all in all it is a tough category which will definately be won by Return of the King regardless.
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