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Tilted Cat Head
Administrator
Location: Manhattan, NY
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someone's gotta say it...
"Correlation Does Not Imply Causation"
Quote:
Even if two variables are legitimately related or correlated, there is not necessarily any causal relationship between them. In other words, changes in the one variable may not be directly caused by the independent operation of the other variable. The one may fluctuate in relation to the other due solely to chance (coincidence) or, as is often the case, each is strongly affected by one or more other (confounding) variables that were not considered by the researcher. Other possible reasons include both variables changing over time, one (response) variable causing a change in the other (explanatory) variable or one being the direct cause of the other, and one being a contributor but not the sole cause of the other. In the well-known expression "correlation does not imply causation," statisticians summarize this understanding of the legitimate use of statistical relationships. In the absence of any other evidence, data from an observational study cannot be used to establish causation.
However, a causal connection probably does exist if we can establish that: 1) there is a reasonable explanation of cause and effect, 2) the connection happens under varying conditions, and 3) potential confounding variables are ruled out. The best way to determine these factors is through a designed experiment in which groups which are strongly similar to one another in terms of certain important variables are exposed to different approaches (treatments) and analyzed to see whether the variable of interest performs differently among the treated groups. One or more groups is also held constant and not subjected to treatment(s) as a "control" group(s).
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__________________
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