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i think the idea in economics is that you have to decide whether the first cup contained sufficient money to your satifaction.
lets say you looked in a cup and say $10. if you think $10 is a good number, there is no reason to risk losing half of it.
If you think that $10 is a small number, then go ahead and switch for a chance at a higher amount.
sorta like saying. would you rather have $10 now or $20 later?
or would you rather have $1k now or $2k later? but, in this case replace later with "a .5 chance of getting double, or end up with half"
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