From a friend of mine...
This was actually war-gamed out by some institute in the 80's. Sorry that I can't find a link for it, but I read the results in a book on strategy back then, and the end result was Allied (U.S.,U.K.,China and Eastern European) victory, mostly due to:
1) Atomic weapons and the B-29 delivery system. Stalin possessed very few aircraft that could have successfully intercepted an inbound B-29 strike, especially one supported by our long-range fighters. The Soviet aircraft were mostly designed to destroy the German medium bombers, and for tactical work in support of their troops.
2) Without lend-lease, the Red army would have withered away for lack of supplies. Even the meager rations of the average soldier would have been reduced by more than half when the allied aid was cut off.
3) Superior equipment- The Soviet T-34 was the best mass produced medium tank of the war. Having said that, the Allies would have access to captured German equipment, factories, personnel, and technology, and were in much better shape to begin production of advanced equipment such as the Panther, Panther II, Go229, Me262, Sturmgewher 44, Type XXI and XXIII U-boats, and the V-1 & V-2 programs.
4) Manpower- The Chinese were still imperial at the time, and with US/UK support, the premise was that Mao failed in his bid for power since the aid from the USSR was curtailed, therefore putting the Chinese troops into the equation. Stalin would have been put into a two-front war, with all his manufacturing facilities within bombing range, whereas the Germans were never able to get bombers into the Urals.
5) Stalin Himself-- The man was a Communist version of Hitler, and goes down in history as the most prolific mass-murder of all times. His populace, including his General, feared him, and his oppression of the people showed when the first villages that the Germans overran welcomed the Wehrmacht as liberators, and happily took up arms against Communist party officials.
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