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If there is an historical analogy, then maybe this is around the time of the early sixties. For Iraq to have any hope, the US needs to put its full weight behind a really popular and credible new Iraq leadership - get it right the first time. If instead they start out by dickering around with some Ngo Dinh Diem like figure and a succession of unpopular tinpot generals, there'll be real trouble in Iraq.
The fact that America supported Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War will make the politics of this transition an uphill battle right from the start.
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