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RoadRage · 11-24-2003, 08:15 PM

The suggestion is not moot because anyone can beat anyone else on any given Saturday.

Human poll will not drop Oklahoma below #3 unless they are on the receiving end of a 77-0 beating themselves. There is no justification for rating Oklahoma below ANY two-loss team without that kind of provocation.

Currently in Colley:
1. Oklahoma - 0.96779
2. Southern Cal - 0.86530
4. LSU - 0.83707

Scenario: Kansas State defeats Oklahoma, Southern California defeats Oregon State, LSU defeats Arkansas, Florida defeats Florida State, LSU defeats Florida. This should be the worst case scenario for Oklahoma.

Result:
1. Oklahoma - 0.92058
2. LSU - 0.89695
3. Southern Cal - 0.88165

At least one computer has Oklahoma #1 in spite of the worst-case scenario. Their lead dropped from 0.10249 to 0.02363, but they are still in the lead.

Colley's range (#1's rate minus #117's rate) is 0.93649, and Oklahoma's drop in the worst-case was 0.07886, or 8.4% of that range. Applying this to the other computer ranksters, we get:

Anderson-Hester: Oklahoma has a (821-759)/(821-179), or 9.66% lead ==> NO DROP
Billingsley: Oklahoma has a (341.420-296.665)/(341.420-137.363), or a 21.9% lead ==> NO DROP
Massey: (3.706-3.305)/(3.706-0.677), or a 13.2% lead ==> NO DROP
NY Times: no data available, I don't feel like being an online-subscriber
Sagarin: (101.85-92.59)/(101.85-47.29), or a 17.0% lead ==> NO DROP
Wolfe: (8.068-6.771)/(8.068-0.244), or a 16.6% lead ==> NO DROP

If the assumptions are valid, Oklahoma maintains 1.00 computer average EVEN IF THEY LOSE to Kansas State.

BCS SOS becomes 0.5593, which would currently put Oklahoma #8

Oklahoma: 1 (loss) + 3.0 (worst possible poll average) + 1.00 (computers) + 0.32 (8th SOS) - 0.5 (QW over #6 Texas) = 4.82
LSU: 1 (loss) + 2.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.60 (40th SOS, just barely reachable) - 0.5 (QWs over #7 Georgia and #10 Florida) = 6.60
Southern Cal: 1 (loss) + 1.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.32 (33rd SOS) - 0 (lack of QWs) = 5.82

Not only does Oklahoma go with a Kansas State loss, they might even be still the BCS#1. Even if Southern Cal manages a computer average of 1.83 (#1 in the one Oklahoma drops, #2 in five others), they're still 0.33 short of passing Oklahoma.

11-24-2003, 08:15 PM	#8 (permalink)
RoadRage Stay off the sidewalk! Location: Oklahoma City, OK	The suggestion is not moot because anyone can beat anyone else on any given Saturday. Human poll will not drop Oklahoma below #3 unless they are on the receiving end of a 77-0 beating themselves. There is no justification for rating Oklahoma below ANY two-loss team without that kind of provocation. Currently in Colley: 1. Oklahoma - 0.96779 2. Southern Cal - 0.86530 4. LSU - 0.83707 Scenario: Kansas State defeats Oklahoma, Southern California defeats Oregon State, LSU defeats Arkansas, Florida defeats Florida State, LSU defeats Florida. This should be the worst case scenario for Oklahoma. Result: 1. Oklahoma - 0.92058 2. LSU - 0.89695 3. Southern Cal - 0.88165 At least one computer has Oklahoma #1 in spite of the worst-case scenario. Their lead dropped from 0.10249 to 0.02363, but they are still in the lead. Colley's range (#1's rate minus #117's rate) is 0.93649, and Oklahoma's drop in the worst-case was 0.07886, or 8.4% of that range. Applying this to the other computer ranksters, we get: Anderson-Hester: Oklahoma has a (821-759)/(821-179), or 9.66% lead ==> NO DROP Billingsley: Oklahoma has a (341.420-296.665)/(341.420-137.363), or a 21.9% lead ==> NO DROP Massey: (3.706-3.305)/(3.706-0.677), or a 13.2% lead ==> NO DROP NY Times: no data available, I don't feel like being an online-subscriber Sagarin: (101.85-92.59)/(101.85-47.29), or a 17.0% lead ==> NO DROP Wolfe: (8.068-6.771)/(8.068-0.244), or a 16.6% lead ==> NO DROP If the assumptions are valid, Oklahoma maintains 1.00 computer average EVEN IF THEY LOSE to Kansas State. BCS SOS becomes 0.5593, which would currently put Oklahoma #8 Oklahoma: 1 (loss) + 3.0 (worst possible poll average) + 1.00 (computers) + 0.32 (8th SOS) - 0.5 (QW over #6 Texas) = 4.82 LSU: 1 (loss) + 2.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.60 (40th SOS, just barely reachable) - 0.5 (QWs over #7 Georgia and #10 Florida) = 6.60 Southern Cal: 1 (loss) + 1.0 (poll) + 2.5 (computers) + 1.32 (33rd SOS) - 0 (lack of QWs) = 5.82 Not only does Oklahoma go with a Kansas State loss, they might even be still the BCS#1. Even if Southern Cal manages a computer average of 1.83 (#1 in the one Oklahoma drops, #2 in five others), they're still 0.33 short of passing Oklahoma. __________________ Join TFP Team SETI 43K workunits complete, 34 members, more of each needed.