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RoadRage · 11-18-2003, 01:08 PM

Distilled from above posting:

Oklahoma: 2.05 + poll average
Ohio State: 3.03 + poll average
Southern California: 6.24 with a 1.0 poll average

6.24 - 2.05 = 4.19

If my assumptions hold, OU can have a poll average of 4.0 and still be in the top 2.

In there a 2-loss team that COULD be above Oklahoma in the polls if they lose? Yes, Michigan could be, but for Michigan to be there requires them to beat Ohio State, thus meaning all Oklahoma has to do is to keep from slipping behind LSU to stay in the top 2.

LSU and Southern California winning out, Ohio State losing to Michigan, Oklahoma beating Texas Tech and losing to Kansas State (Big XII Championship) :

LSU: 1 (loss) + 1.00 (SOS, assuming beating Georgia for SEC Championship) + 3.33 (computers, assuming up 2.5 spot average in all computers) + 2.00 (poll) = 7.33

Oklahoma: 2.05 + poll

7.33 - 2.05 = 5.28

Nice thing about where Texas is in the polls is that it gives Oklahoma an absolute floor in falling. Ohio State losing to Michigan brings Texas up to 6.0 in the polls, forcing Oklahoma to no worse than 5.0 in poll average.

Likely polls in this second scenario: Southern Cal #1, LSU #2, Michigan #3, Oklahoma #4, Texas #5, Ohio State #6 (remember that LSU beat Georgia in this scenario)

Revisiting the first scenario, the likely polls there: Southern Cal #1, LSU #2 (assuming winning the SEC against Georgia), Ohio State #3, Oklahoma #4, Texas #5

Either event seems to put Oklahoma in, but it requires that Oklahoma drop no further than 1.50 in the computers for the first scenario or 1.67 in the second.

11-18-2003, 01:08 PM	#7 (permalink)
RoadRage Stay off the sidewalk! Location: Oklahoma City, OK	Distilled from above posting: Oklahoma: 2.05 + poll average Ohio State: 3.03 + poll average Southern California: 6.24 with a 1.0 poll average 6.24 - 2.05 = 4.19 If my assumptions hold, OU can have a poll average of 4.0 and still be in the top 2. In there a 2-loss team that COULD be above Oklahoma in the polls if they lose? Yes, Michigan could be, but for Michigan to be there requires them to beat Ohio State, thus meaning all Oklahoma has to do is to keep from slipping behind LSU to stay in the top 2. LSU and Southern California winning out, Ohio State losing to Michigan, Oklahoma beating Texas Tech and losing to Kansas State (Big XII Championship) : LSU: 1 (loss) + 1.00 (SOS, assuming beating Georgia for SEC Championship) + 3.33 (computers, assuming up 2.5 spot average in all computers) + 2.00 (poll) = 7.33 Oklahoma: 2.05 + poll 7.33 - 2.05 = 5.28 Nice thing about where Texas is in the polls is that it gives Oklahoma an absolute floor in falling. Ohio State losing to Michigan brings Texas up to 6.0 in the polls, forcing Oklahoma to no worse than 5.0 in poll average. Likely polls in this second scenario: Southern Cal #1, LSU #2, Michigan #3, Oklahoma #4, Texas #5, Ohio State #6 (remember that LSU beat Georgia in this scenario) Revisiting the first scenario, the likely polls there: Southern Cal #1, LSU #2 (assuming winning the SEC against Georgia), Ohio State #3, Oklahoma #4, Texas #5 Either event seems to put Oklahoma in, but it requires that Oklahoma drop no further than 1.50 in the computers for the first scenario or 1.67 in the second. __________________ Join TFP Team SETI 43K workunits complete, 34 members, more of each needed. Last edited by RoadRage; 11-18-2003 at 01:18 PM..