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Well, I dont know about graduate, but I know several *incredibly* bright kids who applied to MIT as undergrads.
Not the first one got in. In fact, I dont know anyone who has gotten in. In the whole of Charlotte NC, population 1 million, I couldnt find the first person who got in there. And I tried. Oh how I tried. I asked everyone I knew if they knew anyone (who knew anyone who knew anyone who knew anyone) that got in. The valedictorian of one of the best high schools in the area with a perfect SAT score didnt get in. See, like you, MIT is my dream school.
Not to be overly pessimistic... But good luck. If I had to guess, I would say go get your masters from the best school you can get into, bust your ass like its your job, and pray.
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"Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws."
--Plato
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