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RoadRage · 11-10-2003, 04:41 PM

1. Oklahoma - 1.68 (BCS record low) - 1.0 in poll, 1.00 in computers, 0.28 in strength of schedule, -0.6 in quality wins.

Remaining schedule: Baylor @ OU; OU @ Texas Tech; bye; Big XII Championship versus Nebraska/Kansas State winner (barring Twilight Zone-esque occurences). Probability of running the table (as per Massey, against known opponents): 87.4%

Assessment: Would still be in the National Championship even with a loss to Texas Tech or in the Big XII Championship.

2. Southern California - 6.27 - 2.0 in poll, 2.83 in computers, 0.64 in SOS, -0.2 in quality wins, 1 loss.

Remaining: USC @ Arizona; UCLA @ USC; bye; Oregon State @ USC. Probability of running the table: 84.1%

3. Ohio State - 7.73 - 4.0 in poll, 2.17 in computers, 0.56 in SOS, 1 loss.

Remaining: Purdue @ OSU; OSU @ Michigan; bye; bye. Probability of running the table: 15.7%.

Assessment: Ohio State is painted into a corner. Two tough opponents that they must beat to finish the season, and yet no room left to improve in the computer or the SOS. BCS SOS against known opponents has Ohio State at #6 and Southern Cal at #25, which would close half of the gap (0.72 of the 1.46 point difference), but Ohio State has only 0.17 that they could gain in the computers without Oklahoma losing. Beating Michigan may be a quality win, but only 0.1 or 0.2 worth. In short, Southern California is in the driver's seat and Ohio State needs help.

4. Louisiana State - 13.17 - 3.0 in polls, 6.67 in computers, 2.60 in SOS, -0.1 in quality wins, 1 loss.

Remaining - LSU @ Alabama; LSU @ Mississippi; Arkansas @ LSU; SEC Championship (maybe). Probability of running the table: 38.9%

Assessment: There's a lot of talk about TCU undeserving its position in the polls. LSU should be mentioned right along with them, or maybe INSTEAD OF. Sure they beat Georgia and Auburn and South Carolina, and they made Florida earn a difficult win; everyone they've played so far has been bottom half teams. They finish the season with two top third opponents, and even if they win those and the SEC Championship they still needs lots of help to make it to New Orleans.

5. Texas - 17.05 - 6.5 in polls, 7.83 in computers, 0.72 in SOS, 2 losses.

Remaining - Texas Tech @ UT; bye; UT @ Texas A&M; Big XII Championship (slim but non-zero chance). Probability of running the table: 71.6%

Assessment: They wish they had taken the Arkansas game seriously.

6. Texas Christian - 17.65 - 9.5 in polls, 4.67 in computers, 3.48 in SOS.

Remaining - Cincinnati @ TCU; TCU @ Southern Mississippi; TCU @ Southern Methodist; bye. Probability of running the table: 28.3%.

Assessment: First ever non-BCS team to break into the hallowed ground of the top 6, now they need help to stay there. Tennessee is only 0.67 points back, Michigan is 1.64 points back, and Georgia is 2.62 back. Odds are only one would leapfrog an undefeated TCU, but that one would be enough. A Texas loss, a LSU loss outside the SEC Championship, a Southern California loss, or Ohio State losing to Purdue would put TCU into controlling their own destiny to the jackpot.

11-10-2003, 04:41 PM	#1 (permalink)
RoadRage Stay off the sidewalk! Location: Oklahoma City, OK	It's Monday again, BCS time. 1. Oklahoma - 1.68 (BCS record low) - 1.0 in poll, 1.00 in computers, 0.28 in strength of schedule, -0.6 in quality wins. Remaining schedule: Baylor @ OU; OU @ Texas Tech; bye; Big XII Championship versus Nebraska/Kansas State winner (barring Twilight Zone-esque occurences). Probability of running the table (as per Massey, against known opponents): 87.4% Assessment: Would still be in the National Championship even with a loss to Texas Tech or in the Big XII Championship. 2. Southern California - 6.27 - 2.0 in poll, 2.83 in computers, 0.64 in SOS, -0.2 in quality wins, 1 loss. Remaining: USC @ Arizona; UCLA @ USC; bye; Oregon State @ USC. Probability of running the table: 84.1% 3. Ohio State - 7.73 - 4.0 in poll, 2.17 in computers, 0.56 in SOS, 1 loss. Remaining: Purdue @ OSU; OSU @ Michigan; bye; bye. Probability of running the table: 15.7%. Assessment: Ohio State is painted into a corner. Two tough opponents that they must beat to finish the season, and yet no room left to improve in the computer or the SOS. BCS SOS against known opponents has Ohio State at #6 and Southern Cal at #25, which would close half of the gap (0.72 of the 1.46 point difference), but Ohio State has only 0.17 that they could gain in the computers without Oklahoma losing. Beating Michigan may be a quality win, but only 0.1 or 0.2 worth. In short, Southern California is in the driver's seat and Ohio State needs help. 4. Louisiana State - 13.17 - 3.0 in polls, 6.67 in computers, 2.60 in SOS, -0.1 in quality wins, 1 loss. Remaining - LSU @ Alabama; LSU @ Mississippi; Arkansas @ LSU; SEC Championship (maybe). Probability of running the table: 38.9% Assessment: There's a lot of talk about TCU undeserving its position in the polls. LSU should be mentioned right along with them, or maybe INSTEAD OF. Sure they beat Georgia and Auburn and South Carolina, and they made Florida earn a difficult win; everyone they've played so far has been bottom half teams. They finish the season with two top third opponents, and even if they win those and the SEC Championship they still needs lots of help to make it to New Orleans. 5. Texas - 17.05 - 6.5 in polls, 7.83 in computers, 0.72 in SOS, 2 losses. Remaining - Texas Tech @ UT; bye; UT @ Texas A&M; Big XII Championship (slim but non-zero chance). Probability of running the table: 71.6% Assessment: They wish they had taken the Arkansas game seriously. 6. Texas Christian - 17.65 - 9.5 in polls, 4.67 in computers, 3.48 in SOS. Remaining - Cincinnati @ TCU; TCU @ Southern Mississippi; TCU @ Southern Methodist; bye. Probability of running the table: 28.3%. Assessment: First ever non-BCS team to break into the hallowed ground of the top 6, now they need help to stay there. Tennessee is only 0.67 points back, Michigan is 1.64 points back, and Georgia is 2.62 back. Odds are only one would leapfrog an undefeated TCU, but that one would be enough. A Texas loss, a LSU loss outside the SEC Championship, a Southern California loss, or Ohio State losing to Purdue would put TCU into controlling their own destiny to the jackpot. __________________ Join TFP Team SETI 43K workunits complete, 34 members, more of each needed.