Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Fundamental flaws in the analysis of global warming model?

Superbelt · 10-29-2003, 11:44 AM

This, to me is some of the best evidence for Global warming as it is now having a significant human factor. This is part of what I did in a structured debate I took part in this semester.

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The world is getting warmer. That is a fact.
Short term weather doesn't prove global warming. It is long term trends. The warming is apparent in glaciers that respond slugishly to climate change. This dampens out chaotic weather fluctuations. For instance. The European Alps have lost half their volume since 1850. All studied glaciers around the world have measured retreats.

In 1991 a Bronze Age mummy was discovered in the Alps. He was trapped there for 5300 years and was supposed to stay there for 100,000. Natural long-term oscillations of climate related to changes in the Earth's orbit are dominated by 100,000 year swings between relately warm interglacial periods and ice ages. The warmth of our present interglacial peaked about 6000 years ago.

Since then the world has been cooling slowly. The coldest of these was in the "Little Ice Age" of 1600 -1850. Now this ice age was an abberant blip, but was still part of a downward trend. At times during this ice Age, the River Thames and Manhattan to Staten Island could be completely iced over so people and troops could walk over them.
Since the Industrial Revolution began the long-term cooling trend has reversed. The Earth, on average, has warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1850 with the most rapid warming occuring in the 1960's.

In our 130 years of instrumental data 1990 broke the temperature record.
Models were used when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines blasted millions of tons of fine particles into the stratosphere in 1991 one of the same climate models that had been used to predict greenhouse warming was used to simulate the expected effect of the volcanic aerosols. The model predicted a 3 year global cooling, peaking at almost 1 degree fahrenheit a year after the eruption. Observations proved the computer's predictions right.

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Finally Occam's Razor.

Increases in CO2 in a closed environment subject to solar heating retain more of that solar energy.
If the CO2 concentration goes up globally (which it has), then theory states the earth should be retaining greater solar energy.

10-29-2003, 11:44 AM	#6 (permalink)
Superbelt This vexes me. I am terribly vexed. Location: Grantville, Pa	This, to me is some of the best evidence for Global warming as it is now having a significant human factor. This is part of what I did in a structured debate I took part in this semester. ____________ The world is getting warmer. That is a fact. Short term weather doesn't prove global warming. It is long term trends. The warming is apparent in glaciers that respond slugishly to climate change. This dampens out chaotic weather fluctuations. For instance. The European Alps have lost half their volume since 1850. All studied glaciers around the world have measured retreats. In 1991 a Bronze Age mummy was discovered in the Alps. He was trapped there for 5300 years and was supposed to stay there for 100,000. Natural long-term oscillations of climate related to changes in the Earth's orbit are dominated by 100,000 year swings between relately warm interglacial periods and ice ages. The warmth of our present interglacial peaked about 6000 years ago. Since then the world has been cooling slowly. The coldest of these was in the "Little Ice Age" of 1600 -1850. Now this ice age was an abberant blip, but was still part of a downward trend. At times during this ice Age, the River Thames and Manhattan to Staten Island could be completely iced over so people and troops could walk over them. Since the Industrial Revolution began the long-term cooling trend has reversed. The Earth, on average, has warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1850 with the most rapid warming occuring in the 1960's. In our 130 years of instrumental data 1990 broke the temperature record. Models were used when Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines blasted millions of tons of fine particles into the stratosphere in 1991 one of the same climate models that had been used to predict greenhouse warming was used to simulate the expected effect of the volcanic aerosols. The model predicted a 3 year global cooling, peaking at almost 1 degree fahrenheit a year after the eruption. Observations proved the computer's predictions right. _____________ Finally Occam's Razor. Increases in CO2 in a closed environment subject to solar heating retain more of that solar energy. If the CO2 concentration goes up globally (which it has), then theory states the earth should be retaining greater solar energy.