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Winner
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It's interesting that you guys posted articles with completely different spin on the same poll. By the way Ustwo, I believe the rest of the respondents chose "None of the Above", making it much harder to stomach the AEI's outrageous spinning.
Just today, James Zogby, the brother of the president of Zogby polling, wrote an article in the Guardian on this very subject. http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story...073049,00.html
Quote:
Bend It Like Cheney
Polling evidence shows most Iraqis have a negative view of the US-led occupation. Spinning the figures to suggest otherwise won't help
James Zogby
Wednesday October 29, 2003
The Guardian
Early in President Bush's recent PR campaign to rebuild support for the US war effort in Iraq, Vice-president Cheney appeared on NBC's Meet the Press. Attempting to make the case that the US was winning in Iraq, Cheney made the following observation:
"There was a poll done, just random, first one I've seen carefully done; admittedly, it's a difficult area to poll in. Zogby International did it with American Enterprise magazine. But that's got very positive news in it in terms of the numbers it shows with respect to the attitudes to what Americans have done.
"One of the questions asked is: 'If you could have any model for the kind of government you'd like to have' - and they were given five choices - 'which would it be?' The US wins hands down. If you want to ask them, do they want an Islamic government established, by two to one margins they say no, including the Shia population. If you ask how long they want Americans to stay, over 60% ... said they want the US to stay for at least another year."
He went on: "So admittedly there are problems, especially in that area where Saddam Hussein was from, where people have benefited most from his regime. But to suggest that that's representative of the country at large, or the Iraqi people are opposed to what we've done in Iraq, or are actively and aggressively trying to undermine it, I just think that's not true."
In fact, Zogby International (ZI) in Iraq had conducted the poll, and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) did publish its interpretation of the findings. But the AEI's "spin" and the vice-president's use of its "spin" created a faulty impression of the poll's results and, therefore, of the attitudes of the Iraqi people.
For example, while Cheney noted that when asked what kind of government they would like, Iraqis chose "the US ... hands down". In fact, the results of the poll are quite different. Twenty-three per cent of the Iraqis surveyed said that they would like to model their new government after the US; 17.5% would like their model to be Saudi Arabia; 12% said Syria, 7% said Egypt and 37% said "none of the above". Hardly "winning hands down".
When given the choice as to whether they "would like to see US and British forces leave Iraq in six months, one year, or two years", 31.5% of Iraqis said these forces should leave in six months; 34% say a year, and only 25% say two or more years. So while technically Cheney might say that "over 60% [actually 59%] ... want the US to stay at least another year", an equally correct observation would be that 65.5% want the US and Britain to leave in one year or less.
The ZI survey was one of only a handful that have been conducted in Iraq since the fall of Saddam. As with the others, its results must come with a health warning: the sample was small - 600 Iraqis were surveyed, in four cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the south), Mosul (in the north), Kirkuk (a Kurdish-influenced oil city), and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the so-called Sunni triangle) - and the survey was conducted in difficult conditions by a western agency. However, spin can only distort an already confused picture.
Other numbers go further to dampen the vice president's and the AEI's rosy interpretations. For example, when asked if "democracy can work in Iraq", 51% said "no; it is a western way of doing things and will not work here."
And attitudes toward the US were not positive. When asked whether, over the next five years, they felt that the "US would help or hurt Iraq", 50% said that the US would hurt Iraq, while only 35.5% felt the US would help. On the other hand, 61% of Iraqis felt that Saudi Arabia would help Iraq in the next five years, as opposed to 7.5% who felt Saudi Arabia would hurt their country. Half felt that the UN would help Iraq, while 18.5% felt it would hurt. Iran's rating was very close to the US's, with 53.5% of Iraqis saying Iran would hurt them in the next five years, while only 21.5% felt Iran might help them.
It is disturbing that the AEI and the vice-president could get it so wrong. Their misuse of poll numbers to make the point they wanted to make resembles the way critics have noted that the administration used "intelligence data" to make a case to justify the war.
But wishing something to be can't make it so. For the administration to continue to tell itself and the American people that "all is well," only means that needed changes in policy will not be made.
Consider some of the other poll findings:
· Over 55% give a negative rating to "how the US military is dealing with Iraqi civilians". Only 20% gave the US military a positive rating.
· By 57% to 38.5%, Iraqis indicate they would support "Arab forces" providing security in their country.
· When asked how they would describe the attacks on the US military, 49% said as "resistance operations". Only 29% saw them as attacks by "Ba'ath loyalists".
· When asked whom they preferred to "provide security and restore order in their country, only 6.5% said the US, while 27% said the US and the UN together, 14.5% preferred only the UN, and the largest group, 45%, said they would prefer the "Iraqi military" to do the job alone.
There are important lessons here; lessons policy-makers ought to heed if they are to help Iraq move forward. What Iraqis appear to be telling us is that they have hope for the future, but they want the help of their neighbours more than that of the US. That may not be what Washington wants to hear, but it ought to listen. Because if policymakers continue to bend the data to meet their desired policy, then this hole they are digging will only get deeper.
· Dr James J Zogby is president of the Arab American Institute. His brother, John Zogby, is the president of Zogby International, which carried out the poll in Iraq
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