I've had fairly unimpressive experiences with .40 S&W. Maybe it is just the guns I've put it through, but none of them have ever been anything more than "acceptable" in accuracy. As this list includes a Sig 229 and a S&W Performance Center piece, I don't think it is a quality of pistol issue.
I just wonder if the loads commonly available aren't that great or if the rounds' characteristics are antithetical to the tack-driving accuracy (in comparison) that I seem to be able to pull out of just about every 9mm handgun I've fired. As this list includes everything from Glocks to Hungarian copies of the Browning Hi-power, I don't think I am biased from using very high quality 9mm pistols.
I am also unwilling to call it a recoil issue. I regularly shoot both .357 magnum and .44 magnum and have no trouble with recoil in either one. The differences between recoil and 'kick' between 9mm and .40 S&W are minimal in my eyes.
Then I look at the magazine capacity. Average 9mm holds 15rds and you'll have no trouble getting hi-cap mags for most normal 9mms. Average .40 S&W holds 11rds and you will likely have a tough time getting the hi-caps. As the difference is one round, it is not really worth the trouble to most people. Thus the 9mm has 50% again the capacity for only a slight decrease in terminal efficacy.
Lastly, I look at cost of ammo. The primary factor in determining the outcome of any shot you take under stress is how much practice you have had with the gun you are using prior to the shot. If the ammo for one gun is precipitously mor expensive, this will translate into less time spent on the range.
Bottom line - I say go for the 9mm if you want the efficient choice. The only caveat is that you should, in the end, go for whichever gun/caliber that makes you happiest. You will need to be confident in what you carry should you ever, god forbid, need to use it. All the efficiency in the world cannot beat willingess to commit to an action fully because you are confident that your gear will function as you expect it to.
Good luck, Sion, and let us know which you choose and how well it shoots.
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