Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - Does Bonds' have a chance at the all-time HR record?

GTI03 · 08-22-2003, 03:24 PM

"GTI03, it's also possible for someone to play as many as 15-20 seasons in MLB. Take Pujols, add in a few bad seasons, add in a few great ones at the end (see Bonds) and you got a few hundred more than 464."

Like I said, I think that Pujols will have more than 500 when he retires.

Everything you say above is possible, but is it likely? Is it likely that Pujols will boost his production levels? That he won't get hurt? That he won't lose his bat speed? That he plays 15-20 years? That he has the same type of late-career peak as Bonds has?

Those last two are the biggies. What Bonds is doing is VERY unusual (to have a 30% hike in production in his +35 seasons), and I think that it's very unlikely that Pujols (for example) will have a similar hike.

In fact, I think that it's MORE likely that he'll have UNDER 464 home runs than it is that he'll have over 650 home runs...actually, far more likely.

But it's all weather-forecasting at this point.

08-22-2003, 03:24 PM	#61 (permalink)
GTI03 Upright	"GTI03, it's also possible for someone to play as many as 15-20 seasons in MLB. Take Pujols, add in a few bad seasons, add in a few great ones at the end (see Bonds) and you got a few hundred more than 464." Like I said, I think that Pujols will have more than 500 when he retires. Everything you say above is possible, but is it likely? Is it likely that Pujols will boost his production levels? That he won't get hurt? That he won't lose his bat speed? That he plays 15-20 years? That he has the same type of late-career peak as Bonds has? Those last two are the biggies. What Bonds is doing is VERY unusual (to have a 30% hike in production in his +35 seasons), and I think that it's very unlikely that Pujols (for example) will have a similar hike. In fact, I think that it's MORE likely that he'll have UNDER 464 home runs than it is that he'll have over 650 home runs...actually, far more likely. But it's all weather-forecasting at this point.