"Of course it's a pretty shitty job of statistics. It has Pujols projected at only 464 career home runs."
Well, whether or not it's "shitty" or not, it's based on Bill James' "favorite toy" calculation, which basically takes into account yearly totals, age, and a variety of other stats to calculate the totals. Bear in mind that the calculation is equivalent to foretelling the weather a few years from now...
Also, I think that 464 is a reasonable number to project for Pujols:
1) He may or may not be 23.
2) He's more of a line drive hitter than a pure power hitter (30-40 home runs rather than 40-50 home runs a year).
3) Players get hurt.
4) He's an excellent hitter, the second best hitter in the league, but he would have to maintain his present production for ten more years to hit 460 home runs. Definitely possible, but it's also definitely possible that he might have a few 25 home run seasons mixed in there...
I personally think that he'll end up with over 500 for his career, but that's a long way away. Just look at Griffey for a comp
