Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post

warrrreagl · 08-18-2003, 08:53 AM

For the past two years, I have collected plenty of data that shows me the most important stat category in College Football is Scoring Defense. (http://www.ncaa.org/stats/division1%...nkings/ia.html)

I collected data from the NCAA stats site and correlated each category of stats with the actual outcomes of the games, and Scoring Defense correctly predicted the winners 92% of the time.

This does NOT include point spreads.

Obviously, the rankings are terribly skewed during the beginning of the season as mediocre teams rack up huge stats against cannon-fodder teams, but the conference schedules usually even things back out.

So, how does your team's Scoring Defense stack up? My team is Auburn, and the Tigers last year were 13th nationally in Scoring Defense. This year seems to indicate a much, much stronger scoring defense for Auburn.

P.S. - Just for clarity's sake, Scoring Defense is the stat that indicates how well your defense stops other teams from scoring points.

08-18-2003, 08:53 AM	#1 (permalink)
warrrreagl pinche vato Location: backwater, Third World, land of cotton	Scoring Defense For the past two years, I have collected plenty of data that shows me the most important stat category in College Football is Scoring Defense. (http://www.ncaa.org/stats/division1%...nkings/ia.html) I collected data from the NCAA stats site and correlated each category of stats with the actual outcomes of the games, and Scoring Defense correctly predicted the winners 92% of the time. This does NOT include point spreads. Obviously, the rankings are terribly skewed during the beginning of the season as mediocre teams rack up huge stats against cannon-fodder teams, but the conference schedules usually even things back out. So, how does your team's Scoring Defense stack up? My team is Auburn, and the Tigers last year were 13th nationally in Scoring Defense. This year seems to indicate a much, much stronger scoring defense for Auburn. P.S. - Just for clarity's sake, Scoring Defense is the stat that indicates how well your defense stops other teams from scoring points. __________________ Living is easy with eyes closed. Last edited by warrrreagl; 08-18-2003 at 08:55 AM..