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Arianna Huffington doesn't have much of a chance in my opinion. Too many people in California have SUV's. Anybody remember that spot she did about if you drive a SUV you are supporting terrorism? She is running as an independent and that she has worked a deal with the Green party doesn't really mean much.
Larry Flynt will most likely do far better than Arianna, but I doubt that many serious voters will support him. His idea that gaming could be a realistic source of revenue, will kill any possible support from the Native Americans and anybody they influence. Never mind the fact he has the charisma of a squashed toad, and image will play a heavy part in this election. Also his idea of a general amnesty for illegals pisses many people off.
I think Cruz Bustamante shot himself in the foot filing the motion in court that he should be Davis's replacement if the recall passes. Yes he is Hispanic, but I don't see that playing a heavy a roll, particularly since Arnold IS an immigrant success story and supports immigration. Bustamante's statement that he would like to "see California and Mexico as one region" was deliberate pandering to the hispanic vote, much the same as Davis's initiative to give illegals drivers licences.
Garamendi and McClintock don't have the name recognition, though McClintock would probably do very well as Governor.
Bill Simon still doesn't have a clue that an extreme right wing conservative has no chance in California.
Arnold has a great number of things going for him. He isn't going to have to lay out much money for politcal ads, he gets plenty of free publicity from the entertainment shows and local news media, which do not fall under the legal obligation of equal time for candidates. He is very charismatic and incredibly confident. I don't think there is a single candidate that comes across as confident as he does. Like I said before Arnold IS the great American success story. He has had plenty off success outside of acting, he owns a shopping mall and has quite a bit of real estate. He is about as far left as it is possible to be and still be a Republican. He is pro-choice, supports gay rights and favors limited gun control. However unlike most liberals, he supports business, doesn't pander to the labor unions, wants to reform workers comp and doesn't want to raise minimum wage. Right now the big unknown is his position on the car tax. Republicans as a rule are against it, but Arnold has refused to comment on it and so I am inclined to think he will leave it in place. (which in all honesty, as much as I hate the idea of paying 400+ bucks for car registration, is probably a good move, provided that it is only a part of an otherwise agressive move to cut spending.)
Personally, I am not an Arnold fanboy, I'm a registered Libertarian. I would have much rather seen Richard Riordan running than Arnold. But... I think Arnold is a better choice than any of the other candidates that have a realistic chance of winning. His lack of experience is politics really isn't that much of an issue when you consider how well Davis performed with his vast amount of experience. Keep in mind that Davis is very skilled at getting elected, he was able to literally pick his opponent in the last election. He spent more money on the Republican primary for Governor than any Republican did to insure that Bill Simon was his opponent. He knew that he would have lost against a moderate Republican like Riordan. But even so Davis barely won the election, and given his opponent it should have been a landslide victory.
Ultimately this election will be between Bustamante, Arnold, Garamendi, and McClintock. I think Arnold will win by a significant amount, Bustamante will have the largest portion of Democrat votes with Garamendi and McClintock receiving about the same. Flynt is pretty much a wild card and if anything he will pull votes from the Democrats. I will be seriously surprised is Arianna gets more than 1%
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