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TIO
The truth is that neither the conservatives nor the liberals have a solid majority. Bush won in 2000 by a very slim margin, and really only won because a large number of people thought Gore was too moderate and voted for Nader. The Senate has been very evenly split for quite a while.
On the other hand, Bush handled the 9/11 crisis well in the opinion of many people. His record in Afghanistan and Iraq is less stellar, and I believe that he has done a terrible job with the USA economy, handling several crisis situations very badly with Enron, reform of the SEC, and talking down the economy during the .com crash. Other people will have different opinons, of course.
If things are going well, the incumbent president always has the upper hand. But, Bush Sr. was in much the same situation as Bush and lost due to a bad economy. The USA economic situation is pretty bad right now, and Bush has staked his reputation on his tax cuts stimulating the economy. The Iraq mess looks to be getting messier too. Bush's re-election will likely hinge on these two issues.
Out of the challengers so far, Dean and Kerry seem to be the front-runners. I like Dean, but I don't know much about him yet. Kerry rubs me the wrong way, he's a little too bush-lite, but I'd vote for either of them over Bush.
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