Quote:
Originally posted by duckznutz
Mac Gods logic is flawed I feel.
the laws of probability break down for very high numbers. For example, there are thousands of roullette wheels spinning around the globe as you read this. They have spun constantly 24 hours for say the last 50 years. Now taking the number of spins into account (billions) you would have expected an unbroken run of at least ONE of the even chances (high/low . .red/black . . odd/even) to be have reached a reasonably high figure by now . . . I undertstand that 26 reds in a row is as much as has ever been witnessed.
The point being that whilst 100 reds in a row are 'theoretically' expected given the large number of spins to date, in reality, the 'abnormal spikes' or deviations do not proceed past a certain point . . despite you doing the matematics to 'prove' to yourself that they do.
Conversely, whilst it is statistically unlikely that you will ever win the lottery . . 'someone' always does . . . . . every week!
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unfortunately yours is flawed, we are not talking about a period of 50 year, we are talking about billions (~14.9billion) and we are not talking about just this planet, which some people have the audacity to think we are the only planet out there. We are talking about the chance that on one of the billions of planets over the billions of years something occurred.
Lets see you wanted 100 reds on a roulette wheel 1 spin every second for 50 years. Roughly 2.6x10^7 spins
In roulette there are 38 out comes 18 black 18 red 2 green rights?
18/38= .47368 ya I think I can do that. Let me have a bit to write program to see if I can get 100 'red' in a row with in 2.6x10^ spins
this should take me 30 min to run or so