Quote:
Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
Benjamin Graham...Warren Buffett...to name a couple. I should clarify though. "Market timing" is a specific investment term for those who try to make money almost solely based on predicting aggregate price fluctuations in the market. It mostly depends on predicting these aggregate movements rather than the movement of individual stocks.
|
I have studied both men you mention. Warren Buffet is no doubt a long-term investor, however, he often engages in short-term trades based on his market timing analysis. Grahams focus was on fundamentals, however those market fundamentals definitely have time elements attached. In today's market the concept of "book value" has proven to be of little meaning when the underlying assets making up book value wildly fluctuates due to market distress, hence a true assessment of "book value" requires an independent analysis of the true and current value of those assets in real time relative to the buy/sell decision of the investment in question.
Quote:
So, in a very real sense, it's gambling, and most people fail at it—some to a small degree, while others to a rather large degree. Others still, simply get lucky. That's the nature of gambling. If I had my choice of wealth manager, I'd pick the one who looks at individual company fundamentals as a basis for their stock's position in the marketplace. I'd pick the one who looks at company values rather than the one who thinks they can predict the behavioural pattern of thousands of emotionally driven people with a bunch of money on the line.
This is not to be confused with timing the buying and selling of your individual investments based on pricing, etc. This is not related to what Obama is doing with releasing oil reserves, which is a decision based on the wider oil market. He's releasing a resource around which a large market is based. He didn't sell some of his Apple stock.
|
I know we could easily get off point, so I will refrain - and get back to Obama.
My expectation is that a release of oil from the strategic reserves is based on an analysis. Obama has not shared any information regarding his analysis, my conclusion is that the only analysis, done was a political one. Is this what you disagree with? If so, give me some bullet points suggesting what type of analysis he may have used to determine that now is the time (market timing by definition) to release the oil.
Also, keep in mind that with the power of the US government, Obama can influence the price of oil more so than any one man on this planet. So, it is everyone else who has to plug in Obama as a variable in their "timing" models and decisions. I don't like the idea of Obama doing things on a whim or for political (meaning approval polls or getting re-elected) reasons.