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Old 04-22-2011, 11:12 AM   #54 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3 View Post
Interesting. Do you assume the Prof had no prior experience with the method of grading? If he had, and this is the first class having a problem with the curve are you suggesting that he dumb down his methods? If the class or the Prof's approach is new I agree that fine tuning may be of benefit.

My analogy is simpler. Everyone knows the test is coming, everyone knows the importance, everyone knows the material being covered by the test - no surprises. However, the only surprise is after the fact when those who put in the work get screwed.
It still doesn't work. You're assuming that everything about the test was hunky dory. Do you think that the banking and auto industries were hunky dory? That everyone knew what was going on (i.e. what was going to be on the exam)? Examinations within post-secondary institutions are heavily regulated. The banking system in the U.S. is not.

Quote:
It is my view that government fails when it attempts to influence the balance of spending and savings. Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis? Canada was not trying to influence spending on home ownership to the degree that it happened in the US. Canadian banks did not take on excessive risk, they stayed true to traditional and conservative lending practices. In the US, there were all kinds of forces in play, forces the government was trying to orchestrate.
While it's true that some decisions of government are poor, there are many that make sense. The biggest influence government has is over monetary and fiscal policy. You don't seem to know the full picture of the Canadian economic and banking systems. Canada's monetary policy has followed suit with many other policies around the world. We've had rock-bottom interest rates. Also, Canada's banking system is well-regulated. The banks didn't take on excessive risk because it's illegal for them to. Furthermore, it's virtually impossible for Canadians to do such things as strategically default on mortgages. Americans walk away from their mortgages; Canadians just don't do it.

The problem in America's system is that it's modelled too much after the free market. There isn't enough regulation, and so there's little that can stop banks from literally gambling with the assets of millions of Americans. When the shit hit the fan, it was either allow for a system-wide catastrophe or to infuse funds into it to keep it from collapsing. The fallout should have resulted in immediate regulatory practices modelled after the Canadian system, but it appears that that has failed almost completely. So, no, governments aren't always ruining the economy; they're often preventing catastrophe and in other cases, such as in Canada, they are a major partner in fostering robustness.

Furthermore, you have people like Bill Clinton who kicked the shit out of inflation. For the benefit of those who need a reminder, a low inflation has the following benefits:
  • Consumers and businesses will be more confident in knowing that the purchasing power of their money will hold.
  • Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing. This encourages consumer spending, which bolsters the economy. It also encourages businesses to invest in order to improve productivity.
  • People do not react as quickly to short-term price pressures in a low-inflation environment, which helps keep inflation low.

What's wrong with a government that enacts policies that reduce inflation?

Quote:
This assumes there is a surplus of income to save. Taxation takes income from individuals, lessening the ability to save and maintaining fear rather than reducing it. But, given the desire to save in times of fear, the initial impact is on discretionary consumption. Reduction in discretionary consumption hurts the economy. Going back to the tax question, it is clear that lowering taxes can be a benefit to the economy.
What if taxes are already relatively low? I could see the positive impact of lowering taxes to the lower and middle classes, but even this can only go so far. Tax cuts are not an economic panacea. If they were, shouldn't the Bush tax cuts have had a bigger impact by now? How's that recovery coming along?

Quote:
With higher savings, and as you stated savings does not need to be encouraged in times of fear, interest rates naturally decline with higher savings rates. In this environment highly leveraged companies will see reduced expenses, in addition they naturally respond to reduced sales by lowering other expenses - this encourages efficiency by eliminating fat. To shorten a long story, a natural recession will be relatively short and not very extreme. However, if government trys to micro-manage the recession you can expect they will get some things wrong and make conditions worse.
Why should I expect as much? I think, generally, that the Canadian government took the right steps with the monetary and fiscal policies, namely, the interest rate reduction and stimulus package. And I say this as someone who would never vote for the Conservative Party.

Companies also respond to reduced sales by reducing their prices. They do this to encourage sales increases. It's just like our bigger-picture discussion about balancing spending and savings. You want to boost sales, so you reduce prices, but you also need to cut costs, so you become more efficient. But you can only go so far in either direction. You need to strike a balance to find success and growth.

I'd like to know what sort of items you would consider as micromanaging. I'm not sure what you mean by that.

Quote:
It is small companies that fuel real economic growth. It is true S&P 500 type companies are hoarding cash, but small businesses have been frozen out of capital markets and can not get needed funds to grow.
I know this about small companies. My example of the sitting on cash was just one aspect, but it's a good example of why many companies (i.e. bigger ones) aren't necessarily looking for investors. The extra cash that goes to the top earners from the tax cuts isn't really in demand from the economy in the form of investments. It's more in demand as spending, which isn't as likely to happen in the hands of the wealthiest Americans to the same proportion as the lower income earners.

But you're right about small businesses. Maybe there is a greater demand for investors there, but they are high-risk investments in this environment. So you have small companies who maybe want to expand but can't find loans or investors. Isn't this a good reason for government to step in to free up those resources?

If you want my opinion, I think Obama needs to reinforce small businesses and help them recover and thrive. They make up the lion's share of the economy and so you'd not only help with jobs but you'd help with spending as well. It's a bottom-up solution, rather than the trickle-down solution the Republicans seem to cling to.

And before you call foul regarding the government "picking winners and losers," there are ways for governments to fund programs for loans, tax credits and exemptions, and grants via arms-length organizations. It's how the cultural industry works here in Canada, for example.

Quote:
There is a step in between, lending. As stated above, banks need to have loanable funds. This comes from savings. Banks then need to loan those funds to businesses needing to grow. Or, as in some situations with venture capitalist - savers go direct to the companies needing money. Savings can be leveraged in the economy, I believe this leverage is more impaction than Keynesian style government fiscal spending primarily because government is more prone toward "make work" projects (i.e. paying person A to dig a hole and person B to fill the hole).
See my last response above: there are other ways governments can allocate funds to aid in moving capital flow to those who need it and can't get it from the free market, and there is a way to do it efficiently and with great economic impact. As an example, for every tax dollar that gets infused into the book publishing industry in my province---via arms-length organizations---four dollars of economic activity is generated. That's an astounding return, and 100% of the funding comes from the government.

Quote:
When spending is controlled real economic growth will take care of the budgets and deficits. Similar to dieting, at some point you have to consume fewer calories than you take in, to lose weight. My one-trick solution is let the market make its own adjustments, government should be neutral.
As the above will indicate, I disagree. The government should be a reasonable influencer because markets are both irrational and inefficient and shouldn't be left to its own devices. Much of the problems with America's banking system was because of being too lenient in letting the market do its thing.

Quote:
Regarding health-care individuals need to be able to measure the benefits against the costs and act accordingly. If you pay for my prescriptions, I have no incentive to lower costs. If I pay, I do have incentive. For example with high blood pressure a person can take a pill and eat like a pig or a person can eat a proper diet and not have to take a pill (I know some people have to take pills regardless but some can control blood pressure through diet and exercise). My point is that if you hide the costs, controlling the costs is going to be more difficult than it needs to be.
If you're trying to convince me that universal health care is a bad idea, you're going to have to do better than that. I've had universal health care for nearly 35 years---my entire life. There are other ways to encourage preventative health. When the government is paying for health care, such as in Canada, a part of that includes educating the public regarding health initiatives. But I believe that's the topic of another thread.

Quote:
I do think it is good for consumers to reduce spending during a recession. I see it as part of a natural cycle. Interfering with the natural cycle will make things worse.
I don't get this. Why is it good for consumers to reduce spending during a recession? Do you know what a recession actually is?

To oversimplify, we should spend during a recession and save during a boom.

Quote:
The problem is with the entire tax code. The problem is bigger than the Bush tax cuts.
I don't know the American tax code well enough, but what I will tell you is that I support a reasonable progressive tax system. As you know, small businesses are crucial to the economy. I have no problem in finding ways to minimize the taxes of small business. At the same time, I have no problem minimizing the taxes of the lower and middle classes. However, I also have no problem with a tax that increases incrementally with higher income levels. You may call this "penalizing success," but I call it doing your part to pay back into a system that has enabled you to be so successful in the first place. Wealth isn't created in a vacuum. It's created by a combination of ideas and labour. Many among the middle class are just as successful as the über-rich in what they do. The wealth they manage to generate is dependent on how the capital system works more so than the amount of effort and expertise they put into their careers. But, again, this is a topic for another thread.
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Last edited by Baraka_Guru; 04-22-2011 at 11:27 AM..
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